Transcript PowerPoint - Climate Change in Long Island Sound

TEACHING
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLEARER & CLOSER THAN YOU MIGHT THINK
Penny Howell
CT Energy & Environmental Protection
Fisheries Division
Lost in the variability of natural systems…
Remove all variability and
“squash” the data?
Deviations from a Long-Term Mean Value
weather
CLIMATE
Average temperature increased from ~6 to 90C in spring
~19 to 210C in summer
~16 to 140C in fall
no trend in winter
Deviations from a Long-Term Mean Value
ANNUAL NORTHEAST US SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
INCREASE IN TREND = 1.3 DEGREES C SINCE 1854
OXYGEN CONSUMPTION (mg/L/g/hr)
Threshold Effect:
Respiration Rate at Differing Temperatures
0.016
0.014
0.012
0.010
0.008
0.006
0.004
18
19.5
21
23
TEMPERATURE (C)
18 & 19.5oC are Significantly Different from 21 & 23oC
Comparison to “Baseline” Conditions:
2006-2009 versus every year after
*take advantage of volunteer data sets
GROUP SPECIES
THAT HAVE SIMILAR
TOLERANCES
Photo credit: NOAA/NMFS
New
Haven
NYC
MEASURING CLIMATE CHANGE HERE AND NOW
MEASURING CHANGE


BIOLOGICAL RESPONSE
Use long term data to
identify a trend embedded
within variable data.
 Identify sensitive species or
Highlight change by
graphing deviation from
average or comparison to
a ‘baseline condition’.
 Compare relative change in

Look for threshold effects as
well as linear trend over
time.

Measure change by its
duration (time) as well as its
extent (area). Be sure
comparisons take both into
account.
groups of species that represent
a habitat type.
abundance of tolerant versus
sensitive species or species
groups.
 Track diversity of species (i.e.
Species Richness) as a
measure of COMMUNITY
RESILENCE.
QUESTIONS ?