Transcript Monthly Meeting_2012.. - Cathay Life Insurance

Taiwan Training Trip Sharing
Experience from Taiwan
apply for Equity
Investment in Vietnam
Investment Department
May 2012
Outline:
 Three steps for stock investment
 Macro Analysis
 Sector Analysis
 Company Analysis
2
Three steps for Stock Investment
Economy
Analysis
Sector
Analysis
Stocks
Analysis
3
Step 1: Economy Analysis
1. Economy trend, cycle
10.5%
2. Inflation Trend, Cycle
GDP yoy
30%
High
9.0%
%CPI yoy
25%
7.5%
20%
6.0%
15%
4.5%
10%
Low
5%
3.0%
1.5%
Apr-00
Sep-02
Feb-05
Jul-07
Dec-09
May-12
 Experience from Cathay TW:
• When GDP is at bottom, or
• Lower Government target
=> Time for Stock Investment
0%
Dec-04
Mar-06
Jun-07
Sep-08
Dec-09
Mar-11
 Inflation is on down trend
(comparison with three consecutive mths)
 Government think that Inflation
is already down
4
Step 1: Economy Analysis
3. Others investment channel:
4. Stock Index:
1,200
14
%Government Bond yield
Stock Index
1,000
13
800
12
600
11
10
1Y
5Y
15Y
400
200
9
8
Mar-11
Jul-11
Nov-11
Mar-12
 Deposit, bonds, … is at low
level
0
Jul-00
Jan-03
Jul-05
Jan-08
Jul-10
 Stock index is at cheap price
(refer to latest bottom)
5
Step 2: Sector analysis
Consumer
Staples
19.98%
Financials
46.67%
(%) Sectors
Weight
Utilities
12.89%
Industrials
6.68%
Others
0.28%
Materials
6.64%
Advise from Cathay Taiwan: choose sectors connect to GDP
=> Financials, Consumer
6
Step 3: Company analysis
Others
Large Stock
Weight
8 Largest companies dominated the market
(Cathay Taiwan advise we should choose some largest companies)
7
Step 3: Company Analysis
Things to Consider
RISKY Stock
BVH
SAFETY Stock
AAM
Decide Investment Method
(as advised, we should choose safety stock for first time investment )
8
Step 3: Company Analysis
3 Rules for Investment Decision
RULE # 1: For downward trend price, BUY when volume increase
BCI
DAS
Price chart
Price chart
Volume
Volume
9
Step 3: Company Analysis
3 Rules for Investment Decision
RULE # 2: BUY if Stock is sideway for longtime but suddenly
increase both price and volume
VE9
PHR
Price chart
Volume
Price chart
Volume
10
Step 3: Company Analysis
3 Rules for Investment Decision
RULE # 3: SELL when stock at high price and volume increase:
KMR
SDD
Price chart
Volume
Price chart
Volume
11
Step 3: Company Analysis
Valuation:
P/E ratio analysis:
9.5
ACB P/E chart
Expensive
price
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
Cheap
price
6.0
5.5
5.0
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
12
Broker views:
Step 3: Company Analysis
13
Financial analysis:
FA Criteria's:
ROA
ROE
FA
ANALYSIS
Step 3: Company Analysis
Asset
Equity
- Should based on 5
years
- Audit report from
big four company
- Financial report
should be released
on time
- Company plan in
the next five years
EPS
14
How to get information?
Step 3: Company Analysis
15
How to get information?
Step 3: Company Analysis
16
Thank you
17