Transcript poster_WMO_Climate_Services_Oct2012x

Partners from left to right :
CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Scarl ULUND - Lunds Universitet CEA - Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique MPG - Max Planck Gesellschaft zur Foerderung der Wissenschaften E.V. VUA - Vereniging voor Christelijk Hoger Onderwijs Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek en Patientezorg CTFC - Centre Tecnologic Forestal de Catalunya PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research CIRAD - Centre de Cooperation International en recherche Agronomique pour le Developpement FAO-GTOS - Food and
Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations FAO SOW-VU - Stichting Onderzoek Wereldvoedselvoorziening van de Vrije Universiteit UR2PI - Unitè de Recherche sur la Productivité des Plantations Industrielles UCT - University of Cape Town BCA - University of Malawi LBEV - University of Lomé ARC - Agricultural Research Corporation ICPAC - Igad Centre for Climate Prediction and Application CSIR-CRI - Council for Scientific and Industrial Research - Crops Research Institute CERPINEDD - Cerpinedd Centre d'Étude de Recherche et de
Production en Information pour l'Environnement et le Developpement Durable
ClimAfrica - Climate predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa:
Impact and adaptation
S. Materia1, R.Valentini2, A.Bombelli2, E.Grieco2
Centro Euro Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)
1 CMCC - Climate Service (SERC) [email protected]
2 CMCC – Climate Change Impacts on agriculture, forests and natural ecosystems (IAFENT)
The African Context
Africa is probably the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability, because of the combination of its low adaptive capacity with particular eco-climatic and socioeconomic conditions (i.e. sea level rise, flooding, drought, desertification, land degradation, poverty, conflicts, migration, urbanization, population growth, diseases, etc.).
African population mostly depend on the rural sector based on rain fed agriculture. Thus food production depends directly on climate making both the economy and livelihood significantly at
risk by climate change.
ClimAfrica Rationale
ClimAfrica is conceived to respond to the urgent need for the most appropriate and up-to-date tools to better understand and predict climate change in Africa, assess its impact on African
ecosystems and population, and develop suited adaptation strategies.
ClimAfrica Work Plan
The work is organized in eight complementary
work-packages:
WP1: Past climate variability
WP2: Modelling seasonal to decadal climate
predictions
WP3: Climate impacts
WP4: Medium-term warning system, vulnerability,
adaptation
WP5: Socio-economic implications
WP6: Case studies in Africa
WP7: Project Management
WP8: Dissemination
ClimAfrica Objectives
1- Develop improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal climatic scales, especially
relevant to Sub-Saharan Africa
2- Assess climate impacts in key sectors of Sub-Saharan Africa livelihood and economy,
especially water resources and agriculture
3- Evaluate the vulnerability of ecosystems and civil population to inter-annual variations
and longer trends (10 years) in climate
4- Suggest and analyse new suited adaptation strategies
5- Develop a new concept of medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system
(for food security, risk management, civil protection)
6- Analyse the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and water resources
in Sub-Saharan Africa and the cost-effectiveness of potential adaptation measures.
WP1 – Past Climate Variability
Collection and synthesis of various data
streams that diagnose the variability of
the climate, in particular the water cycle,
and the productivity of ecosystems in the
past decades.
The data streams range from ground
based observations and satellite remote
sensing to model simulations.
WP1 aims at providing consolidated data
to other WPs in ClimAfrica, and at
analyzing the interactions between
climate variability, water availability, and
ecosystem productivity of Sub-Saharan
Africa.
Recent trends in the water cycle of Africa
WP2 - CMCC seasonal forecast and decadal prediction system
• Seasonal retrospective forecast for 22 years (1989-2010). Four six-month-forecasts per
year, start dates 1st Feb, 1st May, 1st Aug, 1st Nov.
• Decadal predictions. Twenty-year-simulations, start dates 1990-1995-2000-2005-2010,
November 1st.
• Simulations are performed by means of a global climate model initialized with the best
observational products of ocean, land and atmosphere
Outputs provided:
• surface temperature
• precipitation
• heat fluxes
• winds
• etc.
ERA Interim
Summer anomaly of Monsoon winds
simulated by the seasonal prediction
system (CMCC-SPS, start date May
1st) and observed by ERA Interim, in
the area depicted above.
CMCC-SPS
WP3 – Analysis of climate impacts on key ecosystem services (water-agric.)
Quantify the sensitivity of vegetation productivity and water resources to seasonal,
interannual and decadal variability in weather and climate, using impact models on
agriculture and water
WP4 – Medium-term of Forecasting food and water vulnerabilities and recommending
relevant adaptation measures
Establish a monitoring and forecasting warning system (based on ClimAfrica data) that
produces prospective analyses about food insecurity and water crisis for the next 10
years.Integrate and harmonize ClimAfrica data with existing data and information to be used as
Climate
Land Use
CO2 emissions
Identify tradeoffs and areas of risk and inputs to develop improved vulnerability assessment and optimal adaptation options.
Change
Change
- Natural Resources and Food Security – Systems at Risk (NaF-SAR)
vulnerability related to:
Integrate and harmonize ClimAfrica data with existing data and information to be used as inputs
a) water related hazards
to develop improved vulnerability assessment and optimal adaptation options.
b) agricultural and pastoral performance
A Risk framework is being used to
c) soil degradation
Crop Model
provide a strategic context for the
…using an agroDVM
climate simulation data from WP2; information data and tools generated.
The framework consists of 4
on
past
yield
and
water
resources
from
WP1
Crop yield
Water use
key stages:
and WP6)
1- Physiographic data related
WP5 – Socio-economic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation
to hazard or environmental
measures in SSA
pressure;
Economic assessment of agriculture and water sector based on a Computable General 2- Socio-economic data (people)
Equilibrium analysis (ICES) to produce the “inaction” and the adaptation scenarios, for 3- Risk assessment hot spotting
direct climate change impacts on agricultural activity and on the direct cost and based on (1) & (2) and the development of scenarios
effectiveness of adaptation strategies. Moreover, the spatially explicit and dynamic 4- Decision support
economic modelling of vulnerability will have to accommodate bio-physical vulnerabilities.
WP6: REGIONALCASESTUDIESINAFRICA
Project Partnership
The ClimAfrica consortium is formed by 18 institutions, 9 from Europe, 8 from Africa,
and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
African countries directly involved are:
Burkina Faso, Congo, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, Sudan and Togo.
WP6 – Case Studies
Characterize the environmental and socio-economic
conditions of 9 different Sub-Saharan African regions
distributed along a wide climate gradient (Ghana,
Burkina Faso, Togo, Malawi, Republic of Congo,
Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia and Tanzania).
The studies carried out in these regions will provide
field data to other work packages for empirical model
development and mechanistic model parametrization.
In addition, the synergies developed with the existing
actors (managers and policy-makers, NGO’s, local
farmer’s organizations, women’s associations, etc.)
during these studies will allow to test and validate
both the individual model outputs and the Medium
Term Warning System in these regions
Tchizalamou site, Congo
Expected Results
1) improved climate predictions over Africa
2) evaluation of climate impacts on water resources and agriculture
3) new adaptation strategies suited for Africa
4) assessment of economic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation
5) an operational medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system
CONTACTS - CLIMAFRICA COORDINATION OFFICE:
Riccardo Valentini (project coordinator and Director of Division of Climate Change
Impacts on agriculture, forests and natural ecosystems – IAFENT, [email protected] )
Antonio Bombelli (project manager, [email protected] )
Elisa Grieco ( [email protected] )
WebSite: www.climafrica.net www.cmcc.it