Transcript 講座投影片
Will there be light at the end of the tunnel? 梁榮武 綠色茶座 3.9. 2011 Climate change & Nuclear energy Big Pakistan flood, Aug 2010 2000 fatalities 4,000,000 homeless 20,000,000 afflicted Torched land Level of Moscow air pollution exceeds norm tenfold as heat wave continues Russia forest fire, July/Aug 2010 Few dozen deaths >40,000,000 sq km burnt > US$30 billion economic lost Seoul flood, July 2011 Kiribati, Pacific Climate change - a clear and present danger 香港極端少雨和極端多雨的年數 極端少雨的年數 極端多雨的年數 1885 - 2000 2 2 21世紀 4 10 期間 極端少雨的年數 - 年雨量低於1282毫米; 極端多雨的年數 - 年雨量高於3187毫米 香港和廣東省的食水需求量 2007 2020 2030 香港 9.5億立方米 11億立方米 13億立方米 廣東省 460億立方米 520億立方米 -- 資料來源： 香港全面水資源管理，水務署 (2007) 廣東水資源公報2007，廣東省水利廳 (2008) 廣東省水資源綜合利用 “十一五”規劃，廣東省人民政府 (2007) Kevin Carter, 1994 Pulitzer Prize Somalia, 2011 'Ice Wars' heating up the Arctic – IPCC forecasts ice-free arctic by 2070 CNN, July 2011 'Pay now, or later' – General Zinni, former commander of US Central Command, ‘We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions today, and take an economic hit of some kind. Or we will pay the price later in military terms.’ Nobel Peace Prize 2007 • By awarding the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 to the IPCC and Al Gore, the Norwegian Nobel Committee is seeking to contribute to a sharper focus on the processes and decisions that appear to be necessary to protect the world’s future climate, and thereby to reduce the threat to the security of mankind. Action is necessary now, before climate change moves beyond man’s control. Oslo, 12 October 2007 Technical options to reduce/slow down increase of GHG • Improving the efficiency of energy conversion and end-use processes; • Shifting to less carbon intensive energy sources (e.g. shifting from coal to natural gas); • Developing carbon-free or low-carbon energy sources and carbon sequestration (e.g. renewable, planting forests or capturing and storing CO2); • Nuclear (?) Telling numbers - NEA/OECD IAEA Bulletin, 1998 Advances in climate change research, 2010, China Consultancy study, 2002, EMSD, HKSARG Potential application of RE in HK Environmental effects of nuclear power plant operation • UNSCEAR : 1/300 of natural radiation; • Significantly smaller amount of waste than coal chain: – Kingston coal plant, Tennessee: 96 percent of waste (by weight) vanished into the air (11 million tons CO2, 51,000 tons of SO2, 12,500 tons of NOx, 1,700 tons of HCl, 330 tons of H2SO4, 230 tons of H2S, 11 tons of NH4 and 30 tons of toxic heavy metals) – Watts Bar nuclear reactor, Tennessee: 26 tons. • (Source: National Center for Policy Analysis) – Coal ash is more radioactive than nuclear waste (0.18 mSv vs 0.06 mSv to nearby residents at coal fire plant and nuclear plant) • Scientific American, Dec 2007 Reaction after Fukushima • Germany (15 Mar) - ordered 7 reactors (1/3 nuclear capacity) to immediately shut down ; 3-month moratorium on agreed extension of operating lives; all plants closed by 2022. • Italy (23 Mar) – 1-year moratorium on construction of plants. • Swiss – moratorium on new plants; immediate review of existing plants. • France, Finland, Sweden, Spain, UK, Romania – conduct safety reviews, stress tests. • China – suspended approval of new plants, safety inspection of existing plants, establish new safety regulations. Estimated cumulative dose (from 3.11) in 1 year (mSv) Japan Science Ministry Putting radiation in prespective Courtesy xkcd.com Afraid of cancer? • US: 1 man out of 2 will have cancer, 1 woman out of 3 will have cancer. • Causes of cancer: food, drink, smoke, sunlight, air, soil, old age, genes, coke-oven, hepatitis virus, radon, tobacco smoke, mustard gas, silica, carbon tetrachloride, formaldehyde, wood dust, ..., ionizing radiation (>400 types, report on carcinogens, US department of health and human service, 2011) 外在因素造成壽命縮短的期望值(天) • • • • • • 身為男性 – 2800 每天抽一包香煙 – 1600 生活貧困 – 700 工傷事故 – 435 民航機失事 – 1 一輩子活在核電廠附近 – 0.4 • (來源: 郭位教授2011年8月演講: Reliability and survivability: Nuclear Energy and the Future of Energy) UK’s nuclear energy future • The government confirmed eight sites deemed suitable for new power stations by 2025, June 2011 • Nuclear power will remain the cheapest way for the UK to grow its low-carbon energy supply for at least a decade – UK Government advisor; • But renewables should provide 30-45% of the nations energy by 2030 – Committee on climate change; • Chris Huhne, Energy and Climate Change Secretary, wanted a “portfolio” of energy sources – House of Lords inquiry, July, 2011 Nuclear Energy Rebels against the future The Luddites’ war on industrial revolution, 1811, UK 「科學為民」學生研習比賽: 使用核能的挑戰與機遇 • 前言 近年內地積極發展核能發電，鄰近香港的陽江和台山核電 廠將在兩三年內相繼落成投產，但年初日本發生災難性地 震和海嘯，引致福島核事故，令世人重新審視核能發電的 安全性和必要性。香港地少人多，天然資源缺乏，大規模 發展再生能源的條件不足，要維持社會持續發展，和緩減 氣候變化的大前提下，身為香港人的你會怎樣看待核能發 電呢？你能從科學角度探討出問題的答案嗎？ • 目的 本項活動的目的是提升學生對科學的興趣和認識，讓學生 通過資料搜集及研究分析等活動，加強科學思維、批判性 思考及溝通能力。 • 科學精神: 求實精神、創新精神、懷疑精神、寬容精神。 謝謝! 不悔和無悔是兩回事，關鍵在於認不認為有錯。 後悔於事無補，而且大是傷神，是十分蠢笨的事，不如不悔。 不悔不是不知錯，知錯而不悔，當作一場教訓，減少再蹈覆轍的機會。 倪匡 「反核之眾」的指控 • 從賽例中的「前言」，可以見出主辦者設立了甚多框架; • 核能發電至少包含道德價值層面、生態層面、社會經濟政 治層面、歷史層面、技術層面的一大組問題和一系列的抉 擇，那麼，又怎能以「科學角度」加以全部涵蓋？ • 維修或清理等工作都是在極高度輻射、令人膽戰心驚不能 久留的環境中進行 ; • 鼓勵以香港人自私角度看核電; • 緊貼本地電力財團的利益立場說話 ; • 核電其實完全不能緩減氣候變化，核電產生帶輻射的碳14, 部份過程甚至產生碳氫化合物這些比二氧化碳更具溫 室效應的氣體; • 所謂有國際安全標準依從，但標準由IAEA、UNSCEAR、 BEIR等國際或美國核利益集團所操控，其支持證據及有 關研究已被獨立專家指出為問題重重，錯漏百出;