Transcript Question - Mitigation and Adaptation Research Institute (MARI)

Oluwakemi Izomo
CCSLRI and MARI
The Syndrome: Climate (and Global) Changes
The Diagnosis: Leaving the Holocene
The Prognosis: Anticipating Surprises
The Therapy: Lifestyle changes
Hans-Peter Plag
April 10, 2014
CCSLRI: Research, Teaching, Outreach
Initial Goal: Find answers to three main questions:
(1) Will faculty do research on CC and SLR across
department and college boundaries?
(2) Is there need for more, and new, education focusing
on CC and SLR?
(3) Is there a societal knowledge need concerning CC and
SLR, as well as mitigation and adaptation, that the
initiative could respond to?
The Syndrome: Climate (and Global) Changes
IPCC, 2013
<------------Holocene------------->
11,700
today
Marcott et al., 2013
Global and Local Sea Level Changes
<---Holocene-->
20,000 years ago, sea level in
Northern America and
Scandinavia was up to 600 m
higher than today, and in some
other location 200 m lower
Local Sea Level Changes can be
much larger than the global
average changes.
During the last 7,000 years,
global (and local) sea level was
exceptionally stable
Sea Level Changes can be much larger than
what we know from our history.
The Holocene had unusually stable
climate and sea levels; a perfect
condition for the development of
civilizations.
The Holocene was a “safe operating
space for humanity.”
We are moving out of the Holocene and
the “safe operating space for
humanity” (Rockstroem et al., 2009):
Climate Change (***)
Ocean acidification (**)
Stratospheric ozone depletion (*)
Nitrogen (******) and Phosphorous cycles (**)
Global freshwater (*)
Change in land use (*)
Biodiversity loss (*******)
Atmospheric aerosols (?)
Chemical pollution (?)
Climate change and sea level rise are
symptoms, not the cause,
the “sickness.”
The Diagnosis: Leaving the Holocene
“Has human activity over the past two centuries
pushed the Earth out of the Holocene and into the
Anthropocene?”
James Syvitski, 2012.
We have moved from the back seats of the
bus into the driver seat ...
We need leadership that can drive the bus
and keep it on a safe track ...
And it seems pretty obvious that the time has arrived to prepare
for the consequences of unsustainability, ...
Robert Engelman, 2013; president, World Watch Institute
The planet is on a rocky path
unknown to humanity; to more
variability ...
We need to develop adaptive
capabilities to handle surprises
...
The Prognosis: Anticipating Surprises
IPCC, 2013
4
<--Anthropocene ??
3
IPCC Assessment:
Very Likely by 2100
2
o
1C
<--Holocene--->
Marcott et al., 2013
IPCC, 2013
Example Hampton Roads
Today’s rate: 5 mm per year
(about 1.5 feet in 100 years)
Modified from Church et al. (2010)
Soon could get as high as:
20 mm per year
(about 6 feet in 100 years)
Example: Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets
Accepted knowledge in 2000:
Greenland: no significant contribution to sea level rise
Antarctica: minor contribution
Main contribution: steric changes
The last 10 years of observing
the ice sheets have revealed
many surprises ...
The future will be more variable than the past.
There is the potential for surprises and new extremes ...
Rapid melting of West Antarctic Ice Sheet: up to 4.8 m sea level rise
The Therapy: Lifestyle Changes
Preparing for surprises
Adaptive Leadership that knows the “worst case” and
can facilitate adaptation to unpredictable future
Paradigm shifts:
• understanding the vulnerabilities and comprehensively assessing the risks
• making room for the water
• a built environment for extreme floods (buildings and services)
• knowing the worst cases (heat waves, droughts, storms, changes in mean conditions)
• having early warning (for extreme events and rapid impacts)
Living where it is safe,
working where it is needed
Preparing for surprises
Social construct of risk and vulnerability:
Question: Do we know the risks we have not addressed?
• Fire insurance: we pay for a risk that has a 99.8% chance not to happen.
• Hurricanes and storm surges:
- The Netherlands: pays (a lot: 2.5% of GDP) to reduce a risk that has a 99%
chance not to happen in this century.
- The USA: we here do not pay (a lot) to reduce a risk that has a 66% chance
to happen in this century.
- Norfolk and Virginia Beach: Cost-benefit analysis shows we should be
willing to pay on the order of $100,000,000 each year to reduce this risk
(with many immediate benefits)
Sustainable Development:
Griggs et al., 2013: “Development that
meets the needs of the presence while
safeguarding Earth’s life-support system,
on which the welfare of current and future
generation depends”
Economy for humanity:
“An economy that meets our needs while
safeguarding Earth’s life-support system,
on which the welfare of current and future
generations depends.”
“What is good for Earth’s life support
system is good for humanity”
“No problem can be solved with the same consciousness that created it.”
Albert Einstein
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends
on not understanding it”
Upton Sinclair