Transcript ppt converted from keynote - Hans

Go, go, go said the bird: human kind
Cannot bear very much reality
T.S. Eliot (in Burnt Norten, Four Quartets)
... the problem is “not seeing what we don’t want to see”
(“willful blindness”)
John Casti, X-Events, 2012
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise:
Communicating the Science about a Global Challenge
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Expected Future Changes
An Unparalled Challenge for Humanity?
Global Change: The Anthropocene
Communicating the Challenge
Responding to the Challenge
Hans-Peter Plag
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative,
Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA
[email protected]
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
IPCC, 2013
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Temperature, 1900-2012, 5 Year averages of anomly compared to 1900-1905
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Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Greenland
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Marcott et al., 2013
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
“Normal” variability:
- global temperature: 0.2oC/century (-0.5 to 0.5)
- global sea level:
1.5 m/century (-6.0 to 6.0)
20th century:
- global temperature: 0.7o C
- global sea level:
0.2 m
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Climate change is happening:
- now, for certain
- everywhere, globally
Sea
level
change
is
happening:
- rapidly
now,
certain
- expected to get worse
- everywhere, globally
- rapidly
- expected to get worse
Expected Future Changes
Expected Future Changes
Expected Future Changes
Expected Future Changes
Expected Future Changes
}IPCC
t
Expected Future Changes
4
3
2
IPCC Assessment:
Very Likely
o
1C
Marcott et al., 2013
Expected Future Changes
Example Hampton Roads
Today’s rate:
5 mm per year
(about 1.5 feet in 100 years)
Soon could get as high as:
20 mm per year
(about 6 feet in 100 years)
Modified from Church et al. (2010)
An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?
19.20.21.org:
19 cities in the world with
20 million people in the
21st century
“..., almost all of the cities to be studied in 19.20.21 are cities that
border the oceans of the world, and will be affected by the rise in sea
levels
An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?
Lovelock (and many others):
- Planet is on a run-away path; could reach a warm state
(5 C warmer) already in 2050
Germany
China
Australia
USA
Lovelock:
- Carrying capacity of the planet would be reduced to 1 Billion
- Recommendation: look for the lifeboats
An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?
Are we on Titanic after it hit the iceberg?
Captain E.J. Smith: “I cannot imagine any condition which
would cause a ship to founder. Modern shipbuilding has gone
beyond that.”
There were lifeboats for about half of
the passengers, but only 1/3 made it
into them I hope, we can do better.
An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?
11.1% Genghis Khan
Global Change: The Anthropocene
Population
1750
2000
GDP
CO2
CH4
Temperature
Floods
We are Reengineering the Planet ...
Cars
Bill McKibben:
Earth becomes Eaarth ...
Deforestation
Extinction
Global Change: The Anthropocene
We are Reengineering the Planet ...
Global Change: The Anthropocene
“Has human activity over the past two centuries
pushed the Earth out of the Holocene and into the
Anthropocene?”
James Syvitski, 2012.
The Anthropocene: A transition to a new epoch?
- a slowly hitting asteroid
- a planetary accident
- an extinction-class event
Plag, 2013
We have moved from to back seats of the
bus into the driver seat ...
Communicating the Challenge
Earth is on the
?
Edge
Humanity as a global
species is on the edge
We don’t know where the edges are, but
we keep running faster and faster ...
(On The Edge @ RunningInFog)
“Safe operating space for
humanity”
Rockstroem et al., 2009
Communicating the Challenge
The planet is on a path unknown to humanity ...
Small Steps no longer make much sense ...
We need a fundamental change of how we
are in the world ...
Responding to the Challenge
What Could this Fundamental Change be?
Millennium Development Goals (2005-2015): Mostly not reached
Sustainable Development Goals (2015-2025): Proposed, look very good ...
SDGs:
1 Thriving lives and livelihoods
2 Sustainable food security
3 Secure sustainable water
4 Universal clean energy
5 Healthy and productive ecosystems
6 Governance for sustainable societies
Griggs et al., 2013
Responding to the Challenge
Griggs et al., 2013: Sustainable Development:
“Development that meets the needs of the presence while safeguarding Earth’s
life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generation depends”
Griggs et al., 2013
Economy is the link between humanity and
Earth’s life support system
Plag et al., 2013
Responding to the Challenge
Economy is the link between humanity and
Earth’s life-support system
An economy that meets our needs by
burning fossil fuels and destroying Earth’s
life-support system is like a doctor who
practices medicine by killing the patients.
Economy for humanity:
“An economy that meets our needs while
safeguarding Earth’s life-support system,
on which the welfare of current and future
generations depends.”
Plag et al., 2013
“No problem can be solved with the same consciousness that created it.”
Albert Einstein
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job
depends on not understanding it”
Upton Sinclair