Transcript per person - Hybu Cig Cymru

Climate Change and the Red Meat
Industry in Wales
Dr. Martin J. Hodson
Hybu Cig Cymru- Meat Promotion
Wales annual conference at Venue
Cymru, Llandudno (12th
November 2009)
The Threats
1) Climatic Impacts
2) Increasing Vegetarianism
3) Government Legislation
Climatic Impacts
The greenhouse effect in the atmosphere
CO2 is the major contributor to global warming
Current emissions, effect over next 100 years
Methane
24%
Nitrous
oxide 10%
Carbon
dioxide
63%
Others
3%
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
17
UK climate projections
(UKCP09)
Medium emissions,
middle of the century,
mid-range of predictions
Medium emissions scenario for
Wales by the 2080s
• The central estimate of increase in winter mean
temperature is 2.8ºC.
• ...... in summer mean temperature is 3.5ºC.
• ...... in winter mean precipitation is 19%.
• ...... in summer mean precipitation is –20%.
• ...... for sea level rise in Cardiff by 2080 is 36.2 cm.
UK climate projections (UKCP09)
Climate change and bluetongue in Europe
• Bluetongue, a disease of ruminants, was restricted to
Africa, occasionally getting into the fringes of Europe.
• However, since 1998, six strains of bluetongue virus have
spread across Europe and into the UK by 2007.
• This spread has been linked to warmer weather allowing
increased virus persistence during winter, the northward
expansion of the midge Culicoides imicola, the main
bluetongue virus vector.
• Other vector-borne pathogens (e.g. Rift Valley Fever)
might spread in a similar way in the future.
Increasing Vegetarianism
Climate chief Lord Stern: give up
meat to save the planet
The Times October 27, 2009
• Lord Stern of Brentford said: “Meat is a wasteful use of
water and creates a lot of greenhouse gases. It puts
enormous pressure on the world’s resources. A vegetarian
diet is better.”
• “I am 61 now and attitudes towards drinking and driving
have changed radically since I was a student. People
change their notion of what is responsible. They will
increasingly ask about the carbon content of their food.”
Two methods of investigation
1) Emissions (methane)
2) Power (Energy use)
Emissions
from
Agriculture
“UN figures suggest that
meat production is
responsible for about 18
per cent of global carbon
emissions, including the
destruction of forest land
for cattle ranching and the
production of animal feeds
such as soy.”
Anthropogenic Methane Production
Methane in Tg(CH4)/yr)
45
96
98
18
39
Landfills
Ruminants
Rice
Biomass burning
Other
Energy
75
Source IPCC 2001
Methane and Cattle
• Enteric fermentation =
86 million tonnes
Methane per year
• Animal manure = 18
million tonnes
Methane per year
Ruminant Impact
• Methane is responsible for 24% of
anthropogenic global warming.
• Of that ruminants are responsible for 26.4%
of methane.
• Worldwide ruminants are directly
responsible for 6.3% of global warming.
• In the UK agriculture generates around 38%
of UK methane emissions, around 2.9% of
the total global warming potential from all
UK emissions.
Global Warming Potential of a Range
of Agricultural and Horticultural Products
Product
Bread wheat
Oilseed rape
Potatoes
GWP Kg of CO2e per kg
(over a 100yr period)
per tonne of product
520
1,200
460
Tomatoes
Beef
Pig meat
7,000
13,000
6,500
Poultry meat
Sheep meat
3,100
19,000
Source: DEFRA
Power
• David MacKay (2009) Sustainable Energy
— without the hot air.
• David MacKay was appointed to be Chief
Scientific Advisor of the Department of
Energy and Climate Change in September
2009 to take up the post on 1 October 2009.
• In his book he uses kWh/d per person as the
units of Power.
Healthy Human Diet
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Vegan= 3.0 kWh/day
Milk/Cheese= 1.5 kWh/day
Eggs= 1.0 kWh/day
Vegetarian= 5.5 kWh/day
Meat= 8.0 kWh/day
Typical meat eating consumer = 12.0 kWh/day
Fertilizers= 2.0 kWh/day
Farm vehicles, machinery, heating (especially
greenhouses), lighting, ventilation, and refrigeration=
0.9 kWh/day
MacKay (2009)
• TOTAL = 15.0 kWh/day
Welsh sheep and MacKay
• “Do these calculations give an argument in favour of
vegetarianism, on the grounds of lower energy
consumption?
• It depends on where the animals feed.
• Take the steep hills and mountains of Wales, for example.
• Could the land be used for anything other than grazing?
• Either these rocky pasturelands are used to sustain sheep,
or they are not used to help feed humans.
• You can think of these natural green slopes as
maintenance-free biofuel plantations, and the sheep as
automated self-replicating biofuel harvesting machines.”
MacKay (2009)
4%
MacKay (2009)
Government Legislation
1)
2)
3)
4)
Reduce the number of animals
Reduce emissions from each animal
Manure
RMP/5142 Analysis of Policy Instruments
for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
from Agriculture, Forestry and Land
Management (ADAS, May 2009)
Mitigation
• Improved diet and genetics
• Increased digestibility of foodstuff
• Advanced technologies in development:
stimulation of certain bacteria to decrease
hydrogen production; decrease certain
protozoa; vaccination to reduce
methanogens
• Manure- anaerobic digestion- biogas
Conclusion
• Climate Change is likely to have major effects on the Welsh
meat industry this century.
• Agriculture (and meat production) is one of the major, but not
the only or the largest, contributor to greenhouse gas
emissions.
• There are a number of possible mitigation measures.
• The industry faces climatic, scientific, political and publicity
issues.