Transcript The economics of resilience in the dry lands of Sub

Livestock interventions for building climate
change resilience in the drylands
Pierre Gerber, Anne Mottet, Giulia Conchedda
TCI Investment Days 16-17 December 2014
The economics of resilience in the African Drylands
Coordinator: World Bank
1. Characterize current and future challenges to reducing vulnerability and
increasing resilience in drylands
2. Identify main interventions to enhance resilience, estimate their costs, and
assess their effectiveness
3. Provide an evidence-based framework to improve decision making on
alternative options to enhance resilience
4. Promote sharing of regional and global knowledge on resilient development in
drylands
• Complementarity with governments and partners’ current
engagements especially in in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa
Livestock background report to the Flagship report on
the economics of resilience
Coordinator: Cees de Haan, WB
Action Contre la Faim, CIRAD, FAO, IFPRI and ILRI
Modelling likely trends of livestock systems in the drylands of SubSaharan Africa
a) What are the likely impact of climate change on feed availability
and animal productivity?
b) How to improve the resilience of livestock systems?
 assess the potential of a set of technical interventions
a) What are the opportunities for the drylands to contribute to
projected increase in demand for animal products?
ANIMAL REQUIREMENTS
FEED AVAILABILITY
Biogenerator
Total and
accessible
biomass
BAU: 1999-2011
Scenarios: ≠ sequence
GLEAM
Crop
production &
crop residues
(GAEZ)
Gridded
Livestock
of the
World
2000 adjusted to
Conforti projections
for 2012-2030
- Feed “balances” and maps
- TLU not meeting requirements
MMAGE
Requirement/
animal
categoryv
Conforti projections & scenarios
(interventions & droughts)
GLEAM
Feed &
system
modules
At pixel level, zero mobility
FUTURE 2012-2030
GLEAM fills up the requirements:
First by-products (if system and cohort allow)
Then crops residues
Then leaves from non agricultural biomass up to a maximum %
Then other natural vegetation (grass)
At grazing shed level, full mobility
- Feed balances
- Feed rations & digestibility
- GHG emissions
IMPACT
Meat & Milk
Supply, demand & prices
ECORUM
Financial and economic
rates of return
From biomass to feed
Scenarios 2012-2030
No Early offtake
No Health
intervention
Early offtake of males
Health
intervention
No Health
intervention
Health
intervention
X
X
No climate effect
X Baseline
Severe drought
X
X
Mild drought
X
X
Balances computed at pixel level (WA)
Balances computed at pixel level (WA
Summary of the effects of droughts and interventions
Baseline
Mild
Severe
drought drought
Mild drought Severe drought +
+ health
health
Severe drought +
health + early offtake males
West Africa arid (AI 0.03 – 0.2)
TLU (mill.)
TLU in deficit area (%)
27.9
26.6
24.4
28.7
26.2
24.8
20.2%
22.9%
22.5%
23.5%
23.8%
24.3%
West Africa semi-arid (AI 0.2 – 0.5)
TLU (mill.)
31.9
30.3
27.5
33.0
30.1
28.0
TLU in deficit area (%)
6.6%
9.3%
11.0%
13.1%
16.2%
13.0%
39.6
37.9
35.9
40.9
38.7
37.6
18.9%
20.9%
25.3%
22.1%
26.9%
28.3%
49.3
47.1
43.3
49.9
45.9
43.5
10.4%
10.0%
12.2%
10.7%
12.5%
10.9%
East Africa arid (AI 0.03 – 0.2)
TLU (mill.)
TLU in deficit area (%)
East Africa semi-arid (AI 0.2 – 0.5)
TLU (mill.)
TLU in deficit area (%)
Define a new functional geographical unit
Drylands defined based on the Aridity Index, which is consistent with UNCCD practice
Particular emphasis is given to the vulnerable areas in West and East Africa
10
Males early offtake
Relative merits of policies to reduce feed deficit
Feed deficit index on average for 2012-2030 in the drylands of West and East Africa, compared to
the past sequence and assuming full animal and feed mobility within grazing sheds
12
Summary of average annual outputs
Scenarios
Baseline (Conforti, 2011)
Drought
Drought + health
Production
Productivity
Dry matter
(animals sold requirement
per 1000 TLU)
drylands
Total meat
production
drylands
Total meat
production
incl. fattened
males
37 million TLU
25%
428 million t
4.4 Milion tcw 4.4 milion tcw
-14%
-2%
-26%
-14%
-14%
1%
6%
-4%
1%
1%
13%
-27%
(+6.8 Mt)
-26%
5%
-12%
20%
Drought + male
-26%
(+7.7 M TLU)
Drought + health + male
-12%
(+9.3 M TLU)
25%
-21%
(+7.1 Mt)
Mild drought
-8%
-3%
-4%
-8%
-8%
Mild drought + health
7%
4%
3%
7%
7%
Conclusion
• At “grazing shed” level: enough resources to support livestock sector
growth but local shortages  animal mobility or feed transportation
• Baseline 2012-2030: use 2.5 times more available (but not necessarily
accessible) resources. In some scenarios, this may go up to 3.5 times.
• This calls for interventions in the areas of animal mobility (corridors,
security, border regulations, health, tenure, ….) and feed management
(storage, processing, transport, …)
• Animal health interventions need to be coupled with interventions that
increase access to feed. Otherwise, full benefits may not be achieved
and conflicts over resources may increase.
• Maps produced by this assessment can support targeting intervention
for increased feed accessibility
• Livelihoods: how many people will the sector support in the future?