Transcript The dimensions and context of transport decision making

The Dimensions and Context of
Transport Decision Making
15 March 2010
Thomas B Fischer
Department of Civic Design
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Thomas B Fischer, dimensions and context
Contents
• Introduction
• Hypothesis and approach
• The ‘structuredness’ of different types of transport decision
making and associated acting strategies (context)
• How does decision making work?
• Contingency model of organisational decision making
• Towards the development of a situation-driven approach
for the selection of indicators
• Some dimensions characterising decision making situations
• Survey
 Percentage of documents that use an indicator (for different tiers)
 Why do you think indicators were used for climate change, air
pollution, noise pollution, and habitat loss?
• Conclusions
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Thomas B Fischer, dimensions and context
Introduction
• Aim is to empirically test
theoretical thinking on situation
specific indicator selection (based
on survey).
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Thomas B Fischer, dimensions and context
Hypothesis and approach
• A good understanding of the dimensions and
context of transport decision making can
support the choice of environmental
indicators.
• An analytical rather than descriptive approach
is taken and recommendations are given on
how the transport decision making situation
might help to prescribe the choice of specific
environmental indicators.
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Thomas B Fischer, dimensions and context
The ‘structuredness’ of different
types of transport decision making
and associated acting strategies
Types of policy problems
-
Consensus on knowledge
structured problem
road maintenance
Problem Solver
moderately structured
(consensus on means)
problem
abortion, euthanasia
Mediator
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moderately structured
(consensus of goals)
problem
particulate matter
Advocate
Conflicts
Consensus on values
+
+
Programme
Policy
SEA: Sreening, scoping
impact assessment,
Consultation / participation
Monitoring / follow up
Plan
SEA: Sreening, scoping
impact assessment,
Consultation / participation
Monitoring / follow up
?
unstructured problem
Degree of communication
(role of planner)
climate change
Problem recogniser
Thomas B Fischer, dimensions and context
Knowledge (technical context)
The ‘structuredness’ of different
types of transport decision making
and associated acting strategies
• similar suggestions also made in the environmental
indicator literature.
• Lehtonen (2009), referring to the energy sector
connected the purpose of indicators with the stage of
policy making.
 For first three policy stages ( ‘emergence of the problem’,
‘legitimisation’ and ‘mobilisation of the public for action’), he
suggested that the role of indicators would be of a discursive
nature. At the following two stages ‘formation of an official plan of
action’ and ‘implementation of the plan’, he suggested that
whether the role of indicators is more of an instrumental/rational
or ‘political’ nature depends on whether there is overall consensus
(the former) or controversy (the latter).
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Thomas B Fischer, dimensions and context
How does decision making work?
• Rational model
 Indicators with decision making function
• Bounded rational model
 More ad-hoc indicator usage
• Garbage can model
 four independent streams:problems, solutions,
participants, and choice opportunities
 Effective role of indicators? – only genric measurement?
• Political or coalition approach
• Communicative planning
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Thomas B Fischer, dimensions and context
Ends uncertainty
Contingency model of
organisational decision making
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Computation
rational
crisp
Bargaining
coalition
fuzzier
Means uncertainty
Judgement
bounded rational
fuzzier
Inspiration
garbage can
fuzziest
Thomas B Fischer, dimensions and context
Towards the development of a
situation-driven approach for the
selection of indicators
• Approaches:
 Theory driven
 Data drive
 Politically driven
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Thomas B Fischer, dimensions and context
Some dimensions characterising
decision making situations
Decision
Making Tier
Strategic
Plans
(tactical)
Programmes
Projects
Modes and geographical boundaries
Policy cycle
1 Agenda
setting
(available
instruments)
2Ō
PolicyÕ
formulation
(assessment)
3 Decision
making
4 Implementation
5 analysis and
evaluation
Function
-al units
Administrative
units
Spatial scale
of impacts
Situation
specific
indicators
CO2
International/
global
Intermodal
National
Regional
Rail
Road
Level
of
aggregation
Total
land
take
NMVOC
Local
noise
Air
Water
The public
NGOs
Investors
Law
Guidance
Formal
requirements
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professions
Scientific
community
Freight and passenger
associations
Private
institutions
short
= categories
medium
= systemic
Ō
layersÕ
Long
= criteria
Users /
stakeholders
Thomas B Fischer, dimensions and context
Time
Towards the development of a
situation-driven approach for the
selection of indicators
• Survey on 21 transport policies, plans,
programmes and projects were presented,
using five situational factors, including:





the decision making tier
the stage of the decision making cycle
the administrative level
the instruments
transport modes
• indicators for four environmental issues were
considered; climate change, air pollution,
noise pollution and habitats loss.
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Thomas B Fischer, dimensions and context
Percentage of documents that use
an indicator (for different tiers)
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Thomas B Fischer, dimensions and context
N
legal
reasons
data exists
Political
reasons
public
request
Theoretical
reasons
Common
practice
easy to
communic
ate
other
Why do you think indicators were used
for climate change, air pollution, noise
pollution, and habitat loss?
climate change
16
36 %
50 %
50 %
36 %
79 %
57 %
43 %
21 %
air pollution
16
62 %
38 %
38 %
46 %
85 %
62 %
38 %
15 %
noise pollution
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50 %
50 %
50 %
70 %
100 %
80 %
30 %
10 %
habitat loss
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60 %
20 %
60 %
20 %
100 %
40 %
20 %
20 %
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Thomas B Fischer, dimensions and context
Conclusions
• Only the decision tier appeared to play a clear role in
indicator selection.
• The more geographically limited impacts of noise and
air pollution were more frequently considered at
programme and project levels than at policy and plan
levels of decision making.
• However, this wasn’t the only factor able to explain the
choice of indicators and there appeared to be an overlap
with other factors.
• It was suggested that these may include in particular
the political dimension, as climate change was an issue
consistently considered at all levels.
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Thomas B Fischer, dimensions and context