Transcript Engineering Perspectives – Towards Structural Change

Engineering Perspectives – Towards
Structural Change
Jackie Kepke, P.E.
Workshop on Climate, Society,
and Technology
June 7, 2011
A web of challenges faces us today
Climate Change
Security
India
Urbanization
China
Population
Energy Supply
Water Scarcity
CH2M HILL delivers complex, challenging infrastructure
programs…
How do we make them sustainable and climate resilient?
Rocky Flats
London 2012
Olympics
Cableuropa
Singapore
DTSS/Changi
WRP
Pinnacle West
Energy
Hunter Water
Treatment
Alliance
Ginn Development
Bahamas
Puerto Rico
Infrastructure
Cairo and
Iraq Water
Alexandria Program
Sector
Management
Integrated technologies create more opportunities for
sustainable solutions
4
Climate change impacts on water infrastructure and
related systems
Temp
Increase
Droughts
and Floods
More Frequent
Storm Events
Rising
Sea Level
Ocean
Acidification
Impacts on…
Stormwater
Source Water
Regional drought
Intake elevations
WQ Issues
Evaporation
Groundwater depletion
Seawater Intrusion
Localized flooding
• Regional flooding
• Increased CSOs
• Other WQ issues
• Drainage system
management
•
Water Treatment
Siting elevations
• Sedimentation
• Additional
treatment
requirements
• WQ issues: algae
•
Wastewater
Siting elevations
• Outfall elevations
• SSO and CSO
frequency
• Temp-dependent
processes
• Receiving WQ
•
Agriculture
Evapotranspiration
• Crop yields
• Irrigation demands
• Growing season
•
Ecosystems
Marine, freshwater
ecosystem collapse
• Widespread species
extinctions
•
Impacts will be geographically widespread, but adaptive
capacity is not
 Integrated systems build resilience and help protect against climate risk
 More informed social and public policy is needed to break down silos
and build functional capacity
Integrated water management and systems approaches
buffer against climate impacts
Example:
Lower Colorado River Authority, San Antonio
Water – Long-term Water Supply Planning Project
 Challenge: Assess 80-year water
supply plan for climate change
impacts
– Surface water availability
– Groundwater and agriculture
– River and Matagorda Bay health
– Coastal erosion and salinity changes
 Main Goal
• Provide recommendations to adjust
capital planning for sustainable
supply, accounting for climate change
Example:
Bay Delta Conservation Plan
 Challenge
o Integrate water operations, tidal marsh, and fisheries analysis under
future uncertainty including climate change
 Main Goals
o Recover endangered and sensitive species and their habitats in the Delta
o At the same time, provide sufficient and reliable water supplies
2000
1500
Delta smelt
1000
500
0
1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003
The challenge is that trade-offs must be made
and significant investments are needed
Estimated range of drinking water and
wastewater utility costs for climate change
adaptation through 2050
Does not include $500B in estimated infrastructure needs already
identified by EPA not specifically related to climate change
Integrating Climate Uncertainty into Common
Risk Assessment Frameworks
Identify Planning
Areas & System
Security
Identify Planning
Areas & System
Establish
Context
Climate
Identify Planning
Areas & System
Asset Deterioration
Sensitivity
Analysis
Sensitivity
Analysis
Identify Hazards
Sensitivity
Analysis
Vulnerability
Analysis
Vulnerability
Analysis
Vulnerability
Analysis
Risk Assessment
Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis
Develop
Adaptation
Strategies
Develop
Adaptation
Strategies
Develop
Adaptation
Strategies
Manage Risks
Are we ready, as a society, to make the needed
investments?
 How do local governments invest in climate
change adaptation when
• Significant uncertainty remains
• Time horizons on which the impacts will occur are long
• Planning horizons are generally short
• Other pressing needs and financial constraints are
immediate
Temperature
Increase
Droughts
and Floods
5
Monitor
Effectiveness
and Update
Strategies
More Frequent
Storm Events
Rising
Sea Level
Implement
Strategies
4
Ocean
Acidification
14
1
Early Planning
and Climate
Data Access
Climate Risk and
Adaptation
Planning
Framework
Develop
Adaptation
Strategies
3
2
Assess
System
Vulnerability
and Risk
At what point can we no longer incrementally adapt?
Are we ready to make transformative changes?
AT WHAT POINT
Integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation
Global Climate Change
Natural Sources
Regional Impacts
Anthropogenic
Sources
Natural Systems
Primary IMPACT Sectors
Primary CONTRIBUTION Sectors




Human Systems





Transportation
Industry
Electric Power
Agriculture/Forestry
Drivers
Water Resources
Environment
Agriculture
Coastal Zones
Human Health
Adaptation
Mitigation
GHG Emissions
Focus on employing strategies that have both adaptation
and mitigation benefits
 Water Conservation
 Green Infrastructure
 Water Recycling
Jackie Kepke, P.E.
Global Technology Leader
Water Portfolio Management
510.206.3820
[email protected]