Transcript What Options for Smallholder Farmers in Nigeria?

Climate Change-Food SecurityGovernance Nexus: What Options for
Smallholder Farmers in Nigeria?
By
Olajide, O. Adeola (Ph.D)
Department of Agricultural Economics
University of Ibadan, Ibadan Nigeria
Email: funso.olajide @ ui.edu.ng
[email protected]
Presentation Outline
• Preamble/motivation
• Background/context
• National Circumstance With Respect to Climate Change
• A Narrower Look in The South West and South East Zones
• A Paradigm Shift
• Possible Gains
Preamble/Motivation
• A review of climate change “Adaptation” space in Nigeria
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Timing
One sided
“Adaptation” options
Cost of adaptation (financial, economic, social, environmental)
“Change” being elusive; Vicious cycle of loss
Overall effect (particularly on smallholder farmers)
• Food production still an annual nightmare - what are we missing?
• Place of NAPP-enable effective adaptation and inform possible
international assistance
Background/context
• Nigeria in Brief
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Land Area
Population Size
GDP
GDP/Capital
910,770km2
186,987,563
481.07 Billion USD
2548.20 USD
Growth Rate
GDP growth rate
HDI
2.63
2.11
0.51
• Climate
• Tropics: Temp high;
max 32o -41o; min 21o-13o
• Annual Rainfall 3500 mm in the coast to 600 mm in Sahel region
• Agriculture
• 40 percent of GDP; 60 percent of labour force; smallholder farmers
• Rain-fed; root and tuber crops in the south; cereals in the North; cattle, sheep and goats in
the north; poultry in the middle belt to the south
Figure 1: The Map of Nigeria showing different zones
Source: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/nigeria/maps.htm
Figure 2: The Map of Nigeria showing different Agro-ecological zones
Source: http://kblakleynigeria.weebly.com/population-and-settlement.html
National Circumstance-Climate Change-1
• Observed over 1941-2000 (NIMET 2008)
• Rainfall:
• 1971 to 2000 - combination of late onset and early cessation
• Shortened season
• 1941 to 2000 - rainfall decreased by 2-8 mm/ year
• 2-4 mm/ year increase in some places (e.g. Port Harcourt).
• Temperature:
• 1941 to 2000 - long-term temperature increase across the country
• In extreme northeast, northwest and southwest, average temperatures rose by 1.41.9oC.
National Circumstance-Climate Change-1
• Expected
(Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change/Climate Systems Analysis
Group, UCT, SA)
• Temperature:
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A warmer climate is likely in the future.
The A2 scenario projects increase of 0.04oC/ year until 2046-2065 period;
Change rises to 0.08oC/year after 2050.
Regional variations are likely,
Highest increase (4.5oC by 2081-2100) in the northeast.
• Rainfall:
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The A2 scenario - wetter climate in the south; drier climate in the northeast.
For 2046-2065, an average increase of 15 cm/year in the south
Average decrease of 7.5 cm/ year in the north.
Annual rainfall increases and decreases in different parts
All areas show increases in rainfall during at least some part of the year.
National Circumstance-Climate Change-2
• 2003-Year of first effective/official awareness
• First communication to UNFCC- CC recognition; Emissions inventory
• Agriculture contribution (CO2) through land use change 40%;
• Livestock, rice production CH4 (38 percent)
• Mitigation and Adaptation Requirement
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Reduction in gas-flaring; Change in energy use- residential, transport, industrial;
Afforestation, agroforestry and forest protection
Alteration of planting dates and crop choices
Increased irrigation and number of watering points
Use of terraces, ridges, and minimum tillage
Careful use of agrochemicals and supplementary feeding
National Circumstance-Climate Change-2
• Research Requirement
• Various agencies and institutions
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National Institute for Freshwater Fisheries Research
National Centre for Arid Zone Studies,
National Centre for Climate Change
Universities
Nigerian Institute for Marine Research (NIOMR); and
Hydropower Development Department of the National Electric Power Authority
• Establish and strengthen national climate related initiatives and research
geared towards
• collection, storage, and easy retrieval of climatic data-planning, policy
• early warning systems; training; awareness CC
• impact mitigation possibilities and coping mechanisms.
• No evidence of significant stakeholders involvement
National Circumstance-Climate Change-3
BNRCC :
Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA)
• Enhance adaptive capacity to the impact of climate change
• 15 vulnerable communities (Sahel-north east to Coastal/Rainforest southeast)
• Focus
• Increasing food security; testing alternative livelihood options
• decrease reliance forest resources; providing fuel efficient wood stoves;
• improving access to water sources; and tree planting
• Significant
community
implementation, institutions
involvement-communication,
identification,
• NASPA-CCN was developed; national awareness; increase in scientific
research; BUT no sustainable adaptation approach suggested or developed
National Circumstance-Climate Change-4
• Research Update: During and After BNRCC
• Categories of Studies
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Reality, nature and conceptual issues
Causal factors
Impacts on man and livelihoods
Vulnerability, mitigation, and adaptation
Risk assessment, economic costs and management.
Perception and Awareness
Research approach and Data: survey, panel, short-term; limited multi-methods/discipline
Analytical techniques: regression models, partial approcah
• Agreement on the existence of CC; farmers low level of awareness and ability
to adapt.
• The CC - FS – G nexus and its implications are overlooked or un-emphasized.
• As such the opportunity for a sustainable option is missed.
National Circumstance-CC “space” Overview
Figure 3: Climate Change “Adaptation” Space in Nigeria
CC Related Events and Farmer’s Experience
• Extreme weather leading to:
• Farmers (male and female ):
• Droughts
• Low yield
• Pests
• Low income
• Flooding
• Burden on Gender groups
• Diseases
• Poor living standards
• Erosion
• Assets Food and nutrition
security, Health
• Affects Adaptive capacity
Farmers’ Response “Adaptation”
• Mixed farming
• Crop diversification
• Hybrid seedlings
• Tolerant local seeds
• Expand land area
• Hand irrigation
• Fertilizer
• Change crops cultivated
• Crop rotation
• Seek climate information
• Soil conservation
• Migration
Nigeria’s Response
• BNRCC
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Awareness
Community based adaptation projects
NASPA policy;
Research Infrastructure
• Community Based Organization
• Faith Based Organizations
• Government Agencies
• Food for thought
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Who is coordinating?
Who is implementing?
Who is evaluating?
What is the agenda?
• Superficial; unconnected
• Ref Schmitt-Olabisi-et al
• Stakeholder’s Workshop report
for Nigeria under the Feed the
Future Nigeria Agricultural Policy
Project
A Narrow Look South West-1
• Oyo state (Non-BNRCC environment)
Figure 5: Climate Variation And Effect on Farm Lands
Figure 6: Map of Oyo State
Delayed Rains/Heat Stress
A Narrow Look South West and South East-2
• Heavy Rainfall
Figure: The Map of Abia State
Source:
Heavy Rainfall Flow
CC Event
Production systems gender and vulnerable groups
Household Infrastructure Ripple effects
Direct and indirect
Policy, political will
Finance
Climate Change-Food Security-Governance Nexus-The Missing Link
• Likely severe future impact on households, environment and production
systems due to non existent or poor institutional and policy support or linkage
A Paradigm Shift
• Sustainable Adaptation Pathways (SAPs)
• Based on Sustainable Resource Governance (SRG)
• Holistic approach
• Flow of cc event direct and indirect impact
• Incorporates existing knowledge, resources
• Incorporates local initiatives
• Inclusive (gender, vulnerable groups)
• Innovations (Ag-business, income opportunity)
• Incorporates local formal and informal
institutions
• Strengthens local formal and informal networks
A Paradigm Shift
• A Tri-ologue
Government
The Impacted
Research
A Narrow Look South West -Options
• Water Harvesting Through Little Check Dams And Afforestation
Existing Resources
land human
capital social
capital, etc
Local/ existing knowledge
channelization irrigation
techniques
creating water ponds,
alternative crops
climate information
water purification
Intra-household labour use
Innovations
Check Dams “vigilante” groups
Moringha trees plantation
Mohringa drying techniques
Mohringa processing techniques,
Moringha market development association
Local formal and informal
Institutions
Community leaders
local government
organizations
extension workers
self help groups
men and women’s
associations
Strengthening local formal and
informal networks
representation of communities in
local town hall meetings
Establish link with climate change
adaptation focussed NGOs
A Narrow Look South East-Options
• Land and Water Resource Development Network
Possible Gains and Opportunities
• Crop and livestock
production
• Farm income
• Household food supply
• Food security
• Reduced GHG Emission
• Adaptation
• Restoration of ecosystem
• Capacity building
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Opportunity Public-Private
Partnership
• Opportunity for international
research collaboration
Imela
E se
Mungode
Merci Beaucoup
Danke
References
Ayoade, J.O. (1995): Climate and human welfare: Inaugural lecture delivered at the University of Ibadan, Thursday, June 15,
1995, Ibadan University Press.
Ayoade, J.O. (2003): Climate Change: A synopsis of its nature, causes, effects and management Ibadan, Vantage Publishers.
Hammeb S.O. (2012): Crop farmers Understanding and Awareness of Climate Change and their responses to it, unpublished
project work, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Ibadan
Ijalusi T. V. (2015): Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and its Impact on Gender Role and food security, unpublished
project work, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Ibadan
Olajide, O.A. and Doppler, W. (2013). Perspectives on Food Security: A Gender Based Comparison of Rural Households in South
East Nigeria. Global Journal of Human Social Sciences Vol. 13. No. 7: 23-30.
Olajide, O.A. (2014). Climate Change Awareness and Its Effects on Crop Output in Oyo State. Journal of Agriculture and
Veterinary Science Vol. 7. No 1: 21-26.