Transcript PEP

Welcome to Kyoto！
th
4
PAGES Asia 2k
Workshop
in RIHN, Kyoto
(19-20 March, 2015)
<Opening Remark>
Brief introduction of our institute and our project
Institute Name
Research Institute for “Humanity” and “Nature”
Project Name
Societal Adaptation to Climate Change:
Integrating Palaeoclimatological Data with
Historical and Archaeological Evidences
NAKATSUKA, Takeshi
（The project leader in Research Institute for Humanity and Nature）
Its Appearance : Unique
RIHN: Established in 2001
(Building: Constructed in 2006)
about 200 staffs (researchers and supporting staffs)
Unique appearance
Hoshi
Flat and wall-less
office to stimulate
multi-disciplinary
discussions
★
Kyoto
Wide laboratories
(Old Capital of Japan)
Its Concept : Understanding of humanenvironment interacting loops
Human
Environment
By elucidating of “human-environment interacting loops”,
the essence of environmental problems, we would like to
create new paradigm of “environmental thoughts”, that
can ensure our futurability (not only sustainable, but also
evolvable forever…)
Its Activity : Project system
RIHN’s objective is to conduct integrative research on key
areas of interaction between humanity and nature.
RIHN solicits, develops, funds, and hosts Research Projects
lasting from between three to five years. Projects
conduct high quality research; they are always multidisciplinary and based on multiple methodologies. All
projects are subject to a rigorous course of internal and
external review.
Future Earth Framework (RIHN has become Asia-Pacific Regional Node Office)
Societies: International, National,
Local communities, Industries,
Fishermen, Farmers, Foresters…
Trans-disciplinary level
Economy,
Politics, Laws,
Education…
Technology,
Agriculture,
Medicine,
fishery…
Applied Science Level
Inter-disciplinarity
History, Sociology,
Philosophy,
Psychology…
Geography,
Anthropology
Basic Science Level
Inter-disciplinarity
Humanity
Physics,
Chemistry,
Ecology,
Geology…
Nature
a Research Project
(2014-2018)
Societies: International, National,
Societal Adaptation
to Climate
Change:
Local communities,
Industries,
Fishermen, Farmers, Foresters…
Integrating Palaeoclimatological
Data with
Historical and Archaeological Evidences
(Project Leader: Takeshi Trans-disciplinary
NAKATSUKA) level
Economy,
Politics, Laws,
Education…
Technology,
Agriculture,
Medicine,
fishery…
Basic & Applied Science
Level Inter-disciplinarity
History,
Archaeology…
Paleoclimatology,
Climatology…
Basic Science Level
Inter-disciplinarity
Humanity
Nature
Organization of Project Members (by February 2015)
1) Historical and Archaeological Members (36)
・Prehistorical & Ancient (13)
・Medieval (8)
・Early Modern (15)
2) Climatological Members (4)
・Data Analyses (2)
・Climatic Isotope Modeling (2)
3) Paleoclimatological Members (22)
・Tree Ring (11)
・Coral Ring (3)
・Stalagmite (2)
・Ice Core (2)
・Document (2)
・Sediment (2)
Paleoclimatologists
Climatologists
Historians
Archaeologists
Three step approach to climate-society relationship
in this project, starting from paleoclimatology
Reconstruction of
Climate variation
Comparison with historical
and archaeological evidences
Remarkable
climate events,
potentially to
had affected
past societies
Categorization of
climate-society relation
Identification
of underlying
factors
Apparently
coincident
How did the
climate
change result
in the social
responses?
Apparently,
not
coincident
Why could the
society dodge
the climate
change?
The most important research target in this project…
Spatial distribution of paleoclimatological proxies
studied in 2014 around Japan
Okinawa
Ishigaki
Taiwan
Precipitation
Tree Ring
Stalagmite
Varve sed.
Precip・Temp.
Document
SST・Salinity
Coral ring
Temporal distribution of paleoclimatological proxies in Japan
–3000
–2000
–1000
Tree Ring (Precipitation)
Shizuoka
cypress
Fukui
cedar
BC/AD
Akita cedar
1000
2000
Aomori
cypress
Nagano~Nara cypress
Yamaguchi
cedar
Shimane cedar
Yakushima
cedar
Ehime tsuga
Okinawa pine
Taiwan cypress
Varve Sediment (Precipitation）
Document (Temp., Precip)
Coral Ring (Sea Surface Temp., Salinity)
analyzed
Sample collected
Fukui
Whole Japan
Ishigaki
Apparent Coincidence between Summer Temperature (Cook et al.,
2013: Asia 2k) and Medieval Japan History (9th ~12th centuries)
1.5
Johei-Tengyo War
(East Japan)
Rebellion, War
1.0
★ Famine
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
Year (AD)
-1.5
800
820
840
860
880
900
920
940
960
980
1000
1.5
Zen-kunen War
Go-Sannen War
(Northeast Japan) (Northeast Japan)
1.0
0.5
Genpei War
(All Japan)
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
Yowa Famine(Kyoto) ★
-1.5
1000
1020
1040
1060
1080
1100
1120
1140
1160
1180
Year (AD)
1200
10-20 years warmth often resulted in warfare and/or famine at following cold periods
as well as Early Modern age. Q.
What are the underlying mechanisms?
Apparent Coincidence between Summer Temperature (Cook et al.,
2013: Asia 2k) and Medieval Japan History (13th ~16th centuries)
1.5
Collapse of Kamakura
Shogunate (All Japan)
Namboku-cho(Twin
dynasty) War (All Japan)
Kangi Famine Seika Famine
(East Japan) (East Japan)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Year (AD)
1200
1220
★
★
1240
1.5
1260
1280
1300
1320
1340
Kyotoku War
(East Japan)
Ohnin War
Kanjo Famine
(Kyoto)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1360
1380
1400
Rebellion, War
★ Famine
-1.0
-1.5
Year (AD)
1400
1420
★
1440
1460
1480
1500
1520
1540
1560
1580
1600
10-20 years warmth often resulted in warfare and/or famine at following cold periods
as well as Early Modern age. Q.
What are the underlying mechanisms?
A working hypothesis based on previous studies;
Human society is vulnerable to multi-decadal climate change…
Environmental
Capacity
Population x Living standard
Env.Cap.
Multi-decadal
Climate Change
Pop. x L.Std.
Pop x L.Std
①
Compulsory
reduction of
population
by famine,
warfare…
Multi-decadal
Climate Change
Pop. x L.S. kept
Shrunk
Extended
②
④
Env. Cap.
Env. Capacity
Ext. Env.Cap.
Increase of
population
and/or living
standard
during a few
decades
Pop.x L.S. Increase
③
Continued
① Increase in Environmental Capacity due to climate change
② Over-adaptation to the increased environmental capacity
③ Decrease in Environmental Capacity due to climate Change
④ Failure of adaptation to the decreased environmental capacity
However, some societies may not be vulnerable to
“multi-decadal” climate variations
Innovation
Massive
Fatalities
Adaptation Collapse
Capacity
Pop. x L.Std
Capacity
Population
Pop. x L.Std kept…
Shrink
Migration
Change in
Life style
Population
Pop. x L.Std
Fixed
society
Pop. x L.Std
In case that
population
and/or living
standard do
not change,
even when
environmental
capacity
increases.
Invasion
Population
Neighbors
The first step (paleoclimatology) is the most important to ensure
reliability of total study.
Reconstruction of
Climate variation
Comparison with historical
and archaeological evidences
Remarkable
climate events,
potentially to
had affected
past societies
Categorization of
climate-society relation
Identification
of underlying
factors
Apparently
coincident
How did the
climate
change result
in the social
responses?
Apparently,
not
coincident
Why could the
society dodge
the climate
change?
The most important research target in this project…