Transcript The climate is changing!

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SU.VO.T..shaping tomorrow’s tourism in
a sustainable manner
SU.VO.T Conference
Rimini, Italy
24 November 2007
Kirsten Wolfrath
Project Coordinator, ITC
ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability
SU.VO.T
 Tourism is a vital economic factor
natural resources
cultural resources
values of tourists
 Destinations need to adapt to changing
environments:
climate change & behaviour patterns
The climate is changing!
Scientific evidence urges action:
climate change will impact
 water resources
 temperatures
 ecosystems & biodiversity
 agriculture
 energy production
 tourism
 ...
Global warming - a changing climate
 Fourth Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate
Change (IPPC) published February 2007 on science of climate
change.
 Consensus: most of warming since mid-20th century is due to
human activities.
 Over the last 200 years, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in
the atmosphere (major gas that causes climate change) has
increased by 30%.
 This and other gases stop some of the Earth’s radiation from
escaping to space (greenhouse effect). Result = Earth warms
up, mainly due to burning of coal, gas and oil (human energy
needs).
(Role of IPCC: To assess scientific basis of the risk of
human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options
for adaptation and mitigation).
What is happening now?
 Temperature increase:
 10 hottest years on record since 1991.
 Temperatures have risen by 0,6° in the past century.
 Oceans have warmed down to 3,000 metres.
 Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined.
 Arctic ice cover is shrinking in depth and in extent.
 Satellites have seen an acceleration in sea level rise (10 - 20 cm
during the 20th century).
 Lengthening of growing seasons.
 More extremes in weather patterns and changing precipitation:
 More intense and longer droughts have been recorded.
 More intense rainfall.
 150 million people affected by floods worldwide (7 million in
60s).
Source: IPCC 2007
City Analogues
Source: PRUDENCE (Christensen et al, 2002) EU 5FP
HadRM3H-model
Climate change:
Principal
Environmental
Problems
Tomorrow different from today?
 Probable temperature rise by end of 21st century: 1.8 - 4°C
possible: 1.1 and 6.4°C.
 Sea levels are likely to rise by 28-43cm (several meters?).
 Arctic summer sea ice likely to disappear 2nd half of
century.
 Climate instability and extremes: Very likely that parts of the
world will see an increase in the number of heat-waves; Likely
increased intensity of tropical storms.
 Changing ecosystems
Impact on European Regions
Southern & South Eastern Europe:
 droughts, heat waves, forest fires, biodiversity loss..
Tourist resorts may become too hot for summer holidays
- shift to spring & autumn?
Western & Atlantic Europe:
 more extreme events:storm&floods, dryer hotter summers
Mountains: summer holidays could become more attractive but
unlikely to compensate for losses of the skiing industry
Central Europe
 increased risk of floods could threaten houses & infrastructure
Northern Europe:
 longer growing seasons, but maybe new diseases, Baltic Sea may
be affected from algal bloom and pollution
Time and cost
These impacts on resources will significantly affect key economic
activities: Tourism
 Climate change is non-linear in character: non-action today
means serious impact later on.
 Very limited timeframe in which to act : 13 years (countdown ...)
 Consider the impact on communities: bio-diversity (fauna and
flora already endangered), citizens, infrastructure, food crops, ...
 Consider the cost: inaction / delayed action / acting now
 Cheaper to act now - Stern Report.
Time to adapt
Climate change mitigation should remain a priority
 Energy & water saving and efficiency
 Renewables: economic consequences - competitive advantage
Set ambitious targets for tourism enterprises & resources use
Urgent need to develop strategies for adaptation to the already
inevitable climate changes: working groups
A successful adaptation strategy needs a common & integrated
approach:
Sustainable Tourism management needs to be integrated into
governance & management structures for the sustainability plan of
your city
Action in diverse areas needed
Reduce energy & water consumption
Use energy efficiency measures
Change to renewable energy (RE)
Sustainable transport: green
fleets, good public transport,
support for pedestrians and
cyclists.
Reduce and recycle waste
A common & integrated approach
Evaluation and Reporting
Core document:
Evaluation Report
(update of…)
Baseline Review
Implementation &
Monitoring
Core document:
Sustainability Programme
The
Sustainability
Cycle
Core document:
Sustainability Report
Political Commitment
Target Setting
Core document:
Council Approval
Core document:
Sustainability Targets.
Truly sustainable tourism
Adaptation can only be achieved in the tourism industry if it
becomes more sustainable.
Make sector more resilient to changes in climatic conditions &
resources :
 Implementation of efficient use of resources
 Diversification of tourism activities (SU.VO.T)
 increase awareness and foster necessary behavioural change
tourists & enterprises
More intensive cooperation
More intensive co-operation & common action using existing
mechanism:
The Network of Cities for Sustainable Tourism
European Network of regions for a sustainable and
competitive tourism ..
ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability
 International Local Government Association (LGO):
Environment Protection and Sustainable Development
 More than 600 members in 66 countries, e.g. Berlin, London,
Bursa, Barcelona, New York, Buenos Aires, Johannesburg,
Delhi, Sydney, Kyoto,…...
 Climate Protection, REnergy, Water management, Local
Agenda 21, Sustainable Purchasing ...
 Lead organisation representing local governments at the
UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP), e.g. Bali 2007.
Cities interact with
international agencies
Conclusion
 The clock is ticking. We can still avoid dangerous climate
change, although it is too late for some species.
 How much longer will be say ‘Urgent action is needed’, and
wait for others to take the lead? Take the lead at local level.
 How? Obtain cross-party political consensus to ensure
continuity on climate protection priorities and action (develop
a short to long-term vision). Link up to networks and actions
that address mitigation and adaptation. We offer you: ICLEI
and the CCP Campaign.
 Decide to do something, plan how to do it, and do it. Now
would be a good time ...