Transcript SCE2420 Lecture 23 - The Sustainability Society

Applying
Sustainability
Science
Ian Lowe
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“Our present course
is unsustainable postponing action is
no longer an option”
- GEO 2000 [UNEP 1999]
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Sustainability problems
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Resource depletion
Environmental problems
Equity and social stability
Cultural / spiritual vacuum
 “pressure of increasing expectations of a
growing population in a globalising,
human - dominated world”
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S O C I E TY
ENVIRT
ECONOMY
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ECONOMY
SOCIETY
ECOLOGY
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IGBP [2004]
“In terms of some key environmental
parameters, the Earth system has
moved well outside the range of
natural variability exhibited over the
last half million years at least. The
nature of changes now occurring
simultaneously in the Earth System,
their magnitudes and rates of
change are unprecedented.”
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IGBP [continued]
 Human activities are affecting global
systems in complex, interactive and
apparently accelerating ways
 Earth dynamics characterised by
critical thresholds and abrupt changes
 We can now alter natural systems in
ways that threaten the very processes
and components on which we depend
 We could trigger catastrophic changes
W. Steffen et al, Earth systems change, Springer-Verlag 2004
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The Knowledge Base
 Much damage done by applying narrow
knowledge to part of the system
 Develop a much better understanding
of complex natural systems, including
links between local and global processes
 Use this improved understanding to
reduce the impacts of human activities
on the natural world
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Sustainability Science
 Explicitly recognises our ignorance of
complex self-organising systems
 Works at multiple scales of organisation
 Knowledge provisional, subjective
 Includes social, ecological characteristics
of place or region
 Requires new styles of organisation
 Promotes social learning
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Example 1: Great Barrier Reef
 World’s largest connected reef system
 Basis of large tourist industry
 Threats: run-off, fishing and trawling,
climate change, effects of tourism
 Environmental levy on reef tourism
 One-third closed to fishing / trawling
 New codes of practice for tourism
 Strategies to reduce run-off
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2: Brisbane’s natural assets
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City of 1.2 million, growing rapidly
Pressure to provide land
Residents nominated outstanding assets
Consultants reviewed nominations
About 1000 included in Conservation
Atlas, integrated into city plan
 Diverted development pressures
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3. Brisbane greenhouse target
 Recognised climate change as serious
 Inventory of emissions, year 2000
 Projections of existing trends: 65%
above 1990 by 2012
 Identification of realistic responses
 Proposal: return to 1997 level by 2012
 “no regrets” + reduced expenditure
 BCC target: back to 2000 level
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4. Murray - Darling basin
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Australia’s largest river system
Drains ~ one – sixth of continent
Approved extraction ~ 80% median flow
Ecological + social problems
Wentworth Group: 1500 Gl/yr reduction
New regime, water rights + trading +
incentives for improved water use
 Political deal: 500 Gl, further study…
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5. Australian Climate Group
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Scientists, WWF, insurance industry
“Solutions for Australia”
REDUCE: 60% cut by 2050
TRADE: emissions trading regime
ACT: responsibility for reductions
ADAPT: minimise expected impacts
INNOVATE: new approaches
LEAD: role in Asia – Pacific region
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Some general lessons
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Integrated approaches to complex issues
Change always involves trade-off
Need agreement about the problem
Different interest groups involved
Process management crucial
Recognise uncertainties
Values explicit: RAC approach
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Conclusion
 Researchers and users must work
together to identify problems, collect
data and develop new solutions
 Responses are always provisional
 So policies are experiments
 Structures to promote social learning
 Challenge to our institutions
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