Transcript Fossil oil 87g CO2/MJ

Setting the sceneThe forest-based sector
contribution to growth of the
bio based economy
Magnus Matisons
Brussels 4 June
Our vision is to change the society in longterm process towards
more use of renewable energy in the transport sector.
Increased use of renewable energy and products based on
forest biomass
BioFuel Region – where?
225 464 km2 (Holland 41 500 km2)
97% Forest land
Efficient forest biomass supply chain for biorefineries
20120101-20140630 - Budget 2.5 M €
Results: www.biofuelregion,se
 Misleading conclusion 1: Carbon debt
 They assume that first you burn the tree and then you grow it
 It is not possible to burn a tree that has not already grown !
 Too narrow boundaries of an analyses lead to misleadeing results
 If an analysis of the carbon cycle of a forest is limited to a short time period or a single stand the
interaction over time and space might be overlooked, and misleading conclusions are the consequence.
Misleading conclusion 2: Leave the trees in the forest as a carbon sink
This analysis ignores that mature slower growing trees occupy the space
that could otherwise be utilized by young faster growing trees.
Old trees will after some time no longer be a carbon sink but a slow carbon emitter.
Substitution
470 kg
CO2/m3s
Sustainability cannot be reduced to a concept of a
few decades defined by political targets
 The transformation of productive growing forests to unproductive mature
forests and using fossil fuels instead is in several respects not sustainable:
•
•
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The capacity of forests to store carbon is used up by the present generation,
The fossil fuel resources are depleted,
Climate change will be accelerated as soon as the forests don’t absorb
additional carbon
 Misleading results of a too-narrow analysis about the role of forests
in the carbon cycle might cause decision makers to post-pone
the transformation of the energy systems to the next generation
Sustainability Criteria, Traceability, ILUC - OK
But what about fossil fuels !
ILUC-FACTOR
cereals and other starch rich crops 12 g CO2/MJ
Suger crops 13 g CO2/MJ
Oil crops 55 g CO2/MJ
Fossil oil 87g CO2/MJ
Rapeseed oil – 95 g CO2/MJ
Palm oil – 105 g CO2/MJ
Soya been oil – 103 g CO2/MJ
EROEI, Carbon footprint and Environmental impact
for fossil fuels are increasing !
Biofuels shoud be compared with
Unconventional > 100g CO2/MJ
Not Conventional 87g CO2/MJ
The oil industry’s global
investment 2007-2011
April 2013 BP decided to abandon all
investments in wind power and focus on oil
and gas
Source : SIMON MUI,
PH.D.SCIENTIST
CLEAN VEHICLES AND FUELS
The way forward
We have the raw material, the sustainable
forest management, the infrastructure, the
tradition and the know how but;
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“....but we need the stable long-term
investment conditions......”
130
€ / MWh
120
110
100
90
80
Today’s
cost for
100 €/MWh =
~4.4 USD/g.g.e. advanced
biofuels
In Europe
70
60
50
Long term stable
legislation is required
to cope with the difference
40
30
20
With permission from Ingvar Landälv
10
2000
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LOW
2010
2020
2030
Natures Carbon Capture and Storage - We can use more of it!
If the present Swedish forest use strategy is continued, the long-term climate
change mitigation benefit will correspond to more than 60 million tonnes of
avoided or reduced emissions of carbon dioxide annually, compared to a
scenario with similar consumption patterns in society but where non-renewable
products are used instead of forest-based products. On average about 470 kg of
carbon dioxide emissions are avoided for each cubic meter of biomass harvested,
after accounting for carbon stock changes, substitution effects and all emissions
related to forest management and industrial processes.
Thank You!
Source: Potential Roles of Swedish Forestry in the Context of Climate Change Mitigation
Tomas Lundmark et al