Transcript Climate Change in the Kawarthas Part One

Climate Change in the Kawarthas
Part One
Overview
• a growing personal awareness that the usual
dates of events in nature are changing (e.g.,
bird migration dates, leaf-out & flowering
dates, freeze-up, consistent snow cover)
• a steady decline in once-abundant species
such as Monarchs, swallows, nighthawks,
snakes, bats, etc.
• a growing sense of loss
• frustration that climate change story is not
really being told (e.g., weather reports)
• lack of action to address the problem,
especially on the part of the federal
government, both Liberals and Conservatives
So,….
I want people to know how climate change is
and will affect how we experience nature
through the changing seasons in the
Kawarthas –birds, mammals, reptiles,
amphibians, fish, invertebrates, plants, and
weather
Unfortunately, it’s a rather sobering picture.
Climate Change in a nutshell
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In the atmosphere, sunlight is absorbed by the Earth's surface and that energy is
radiated as heat (infrared energy) back toward space. Most of that heat doesn't
make it to space, because it gets absorbed by certain gases in the atmosphere,
mainly water vapor, carbon dioxide and methane. Normally, this is a good thing
because it keeps our planet warm.
However, if extra carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere (mostly by man),
then extra heat is trapped, and the atmosphere gets warmer than it used to be
A warmer atmosphere can hold more water; warmer oceans = more evaporation
We are seeing more extreme storms, more severe droughts, deadly heat waves,
rising sea levels, and more acidic oceans, which can affect the very base of the
food chain. Mass extinctions (20 to 50% of all species) are forecasted for this
century.
The warming is known by numerous names: global warming, climate change,
climate weirding and, increasingly, climate disruption
97% of 1,372 of the world’s most active climate researchers (whose work has been
reviewed by National Academy of Science in the U.S.) blame human activity for
climate change
Climate Change by the numbers
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CO2 levels in the atmosphere reached 400 ppm in May. The last time it was this high was at
least 3.2 million years ago. 350 ppm is considered the highest “safe” level.
In Peterborough 21 of the past 24 months have been warmer than the 1971 – 2000 average
For Canada as a whole, 2010 was the warmest year on record since records began
2010 was the wettest year on record worldwide
2001 to 2010 was warmest decade ever world-wide and floods were the most frequently
experienced extreme event in the decade
2012 was Southern Ontario’s warmest winter ever
Ice coverage on the Great Lakes has decreased by 70% since the 1970s.
In past 65 years, Canadian winters have warmed by 3.2 C (twice global rate)
Increasingly severe wind storms and floods locally (Peterborough Flood of 2004; F0 tornado
in Galway, Cavendish & Harvey Township in 2006, Toronto deluge of July 2013)
Insurance claims for water, hail and wind damage have soared in the past 10 years
“Connect the dots between fossil fuels and severe weather events, such as the recent Alberta
floods, Quebec’s wildfires and Monday’s flash floods in Toronto, where rainfall shattered all
one-day records. This is what climate change looks like in Canada.” Letter to the Editor, The Globe
and Mail, July 10, 2013
WINTER
Climate change is being felt most
acutely in late fall, winter & early
spring
Average winter temperatures
predicted to rise from 3 - 7 C this
century. Already 6 C warmer than
average in winters of 2012 & 2013
Impact on hibernating frogs *
Wood Frogs overwinter in the leaf litter and
essentially freeze solid. Increased freeze and
thaw episodes disrupt hibernation and
consume valuable energy.
Chorus Frogs, too, overwinter in the leaf
litter.
Changes in bird populations in the Kawarthas *
milder winters, “southern birds” have increased in number and have
expanded their range northwards in Ontario compared to 20 years ago.
Red-bellied Woodpecker
Wild Turkey
House Finch
Northern Mockingbird
Tufted Titmouse
Thanks to
White-tailed Deer
should continue
to thrive *
• Winter survival will be easier as food
will be more accessible and there will
be less snow cover
• Moose, however, may be forced
further northward as deer populations
increase (brainworm parasite)
Less winter mortality
for insects
Milder temperatures are allowing more
insects to successfully overwinter.
•Possibly explains the increase in West Nile
disease in 2012. Worst year ever in U.S.
House Mosquito (Culex
pipiens)
• Lyme disease is present along Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario as Black-legged Ticks are
now able to overwinter in Ontario. Will
have spread over all of Southern Ontario
by 2020.
• Insects in general – including pests should thrive in a warming climate and
have more lifecycles.
Black-legged Tick
Late winter is mating time for many mammals *
Generalists mammals like skunks and raccoons are
also expected to prosper in a warmer climate.
Virginia Opossums, a
southern species, are
already extending their
range into the Kawarthas
as winters become warmer.
SPRING
• Earlier and warmer springs are being
predicted
March 2012 saw:
• Frogs calling four weeks early
• Mourning Doves beginning to nest
• Flower buds on apple trees opening a
month early. Many flowers were killed
by April frosts, resulting in an 80% loss
in Ontario’s apple production.
• Ice-out on March 20, a full month
earlier than the long-term average
Some short-distance migrants are, on average,
returning earlier as spring becomes earlier
Common Merganser
Red-winged Blackbird
Great Blue Heron
American Robin
Hooded Merganser
Mating season
continues
* Early spring is mating season
for mammals
with a short gestation period
* With warmer winters,
Southern Flying Squirrels are
moving north and some are
mating with Northern Flying
Squirrels, a different species
* Akin to Polar Bears and
Grizzly Bears mating
•Hybrid squirrels are becoming
increasingly common
• Being explained as an effect of
climate change
(Trent University/MNR study)
Maple sap is running
Syrup production in NE U.S. is suffering from climate change
and too few cycles of mild days and cold nights
Nesting season
begins
- earlier springs are resulting in
an earlier start to the nesting
season for resident birds &
short-distance migrants
- these species should be able
to breed earlier and raise more
young
- One large-scale study showed
that birds are laying eggs up at
an average rate of 6.6 days
earlier per decade
Mourning Dove
A new challenge for
tropical migrants
-Migration arrival time has
evolved to coincide with peak
invertebrate numbers in mid-May
through late June.
- Warmer springs will mean
invertebrates hatch out earlier
- Won’t be as much food
available, hence fewer young
- Already happening in Europe
- Evolution doesn’t work fast
enough for tropical migrants to
simply readjust their timing and
arrive back on the breeding
grounds earlier.
- It is estimated that evolution
would need to occur 10,000 times
faster than in the past for birds &
other vertebrates to adapt to the
rapid climate change expected in
the next 100 years
Wood Thrush
The frog chorus hits full stride
Climate Change at work
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Spring Peeper
“peep, peep,…” repeated 1x/sec.
Peak calling period of early breeders is now 10
– 20 days earlier than in 1995. These include
Spring Peepers, Wood Frogs, Chorus Frogs and
Northern Leopard Frogs (MNR study published in
Herpetological Conservation and Biology, 2012)
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Eggs are laid in vernal ponds which are
temporary bodies of water. Drier summers may
mean that these ponds may dry up before the
young frogs and salamanders have had the time
to develop to the adult stage
Salamanders are mating earlier, too.
Chorus Frog “like a nail drawn over a comb”
Walleye are spawning
Climate change is expected to favour warm water species, such as
bass and sunfish, over cool water species, like Walleye. We can
expect a northward shift in the location of the walleye fishery.
Migratory
butterflies arrive
-Unprecedented numbers (300 million
plus) of Red Admirals arrived in spring
of 2012
- was due to conditions in Texas
where abundant rain followed a
devastating drought (climate change?)
- all predatory insects were killed off
by the drought
- with the rains, wildflowers were
abundant and huge reproduction
success
- wave after wave came north out of
Texas from April through May
- arrived too early to reproduce here
since nettles, their host plant, had not
yet emerged
- Monarchs arrived early, too, in some
areas before milkweed were up. Poor
reproductive success.
Red Admirals feeding on tree sap
April is a month of tree flowers
Flower buds on Trembling Aspens now opening 2 weeks earlier
Red Maple
Speckled
Alder
Carolina
Poplar
Silver Maple
(University of Alberta)
A dusting of
pollen descends
from the skies
With climate change, tree pollen
is emerging roughly two weeks
earlier in the spring in much of
North America.
Pollen counts are expected to
more than double by 2040.
Many people are experiencing
more serious allergy symptoms .
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Spring ephemeral wildflowers bloom
In recent years, peak bloom has been two to three weeks earlier than normal
Red
Trillium
Jack in the
Pulpit
White Trillium
Wild
Columbine