Transcript Climate Change in the Kawarthas March 2014 Part 1

Climate Change in the Kawarthas
March 2014
Part 1
Nature in the
Kawarthas is
changing
The climate is warming: 2010 – 2014
– 40 out of 48 months warmer
than 1971 – 2000 average (83%)
Changes in dates of events in nature
(e.g., leaf out)
Changes in numbers and kinds of
some species (e.g., opossum)
More extreme events (March 2012)
Tonight’s talk…
• Will focus on events with likely or
possible climate change connection
• What we are seeing now
• Extreme events of note
• Concern for the future
Kawarthas
Kawarthas
2010 OMNR Report – Current and Projected Future
Climatic Conditons for Ecoregions in Ontario
Temperatures similar to s. Pennsylvania on the way
Arrival of southern bird species
“Southern birds” have increased in number
and have expanded their range northwards over recent decades
Mourning Dove
– edge of Shield
Northern Cardinal – Bancroft, Minden
Hooded Warbler
Hooded Warbler – Ganaraska
Forest
Red-bellied Woodpecker
The arrival of the Virginia Opossum
Virginia Opossums, a southern species, are extending their range into the Kawarthas
Gannon Narrows – December 2012
Johnston Dr. Ptbo – Feb. 2014
Flying squirrel
hybridization
• With warmer winters, Southern
Flying Squirrels are moving north
into the Kawarthas and some are
mating with Northern Flying
Squirrels, a different species
• Hybrid squirrels are becoming
increasingly common
• Being explained as a possible
effect of climate change
• akin to Polar Bears & Grizzlies
mating ; also seen with Blackcapped & Carolina chickadees
(Trent University/MNR study 2009)
Butterflies: Southerners
on the march northward
Southern (Carolinian) species have
expanded their range northwards over
the last decade
Giant Swallowtail now common in
Kawarthas. Was restricted to extreme
SW Ontario
Giant Swallowtail – Canada’s
biggest butterfly
Coldest winter temperature
determines northern limit
Northern True Katydid
In years with long, hot summers, two
broods of some species
Northern True Katydid (long-horned
grasshopper) may be next southerner
to arrive.
Delaware Skipper
Some short-distance migrants are, on average, returning
earlier as spring becomes earlier
Common Merganser
Red-winged Blackbird
Great Blue Heron
American Robin
Hooded Merganser
An earlier
nesting season
Earlier springs are resulting in an
earlier start to the nesting season
for resident birds & short-distance
migrants
May mean more more young
One large-scale study showed that
birds are laying eggs up at an
average rate of 6.6 days earlier per
decade
Mourning Dove
An earlier spring frog chorus
•
Peak calling period of early breeders is
now 10 – 20 days earlier than in 1995.
Spring Peepers, Wood Frogs, Chorus Frogs
and Northern Leopard Frogs (MNR study
published in Herpetological Conservation
and Biology, 2012)
Spring Peeper
Chorus Frog
Salamanders are mating earlier, too.
Earlier flowering of trees
Alberta study: Flower buds on Trembling Aspens now opening 2 weeks earlier
Red Maple
Speckled
Alder
Carolina
Poplar
Silver Maple
Earlier spring wildflower bloom
In recent years, peak bloom has been two to three weeks earlier than normal
Coltsfoot
White Trillium
Hepatica
Wild
Columbine
An earlier black
fly emergence
Black flies are now in peak
numbers in late April through
early May
In the 1960s, peak numbers
were not until mid- to late May
Traditionally, May 24th
Weekend saw the worst black
fly conditions
Earlier and more
abundant tree
pollen
With climate change, tree
pollen is emerging roughly
two weeks earlier in the
spring in much of North
America.
Pollen counts are expected to
more than double by 2040.
Many people are experiencing
more serious allergy
symptoms .
•
A marked increase in invasive species
Purple Loosestrife
Dog-strangling Vine
Common Reed (Phragmites)
Garlic Mustard
An increase in tree disease
Butternut – canker (fungus)
Ashes – Emerald Ash borer
American Beech – beech scale
(insect and fungus)
– milder winters may be allowing
faster expansion north