Transcript Changing Seasons in a Changing Climate Part One

Climate Change in the Kawarthas
November 2014 – Part 1
Climate Change in the
news this fall...
• May, June, Aug., Sept., & Oct. 2014
were warmest ever planet-wide
• 35,000 stranded walruses on NW
coast of Alaska in late September.
Why? Decline of sea ice. Happening
since 2007. Long term implications?
•Audubon’s Birds & Climate Change
Report: “314 species out of 518
studied will lose more than 50% of
their current climatic range by 2080
due to habitat disruption brought on
by climate change.” Includes loons.
• IPCC – Nov. 2, 2014 CO2 emissions
must be reduced by almost half by
2030 or global temperatures will
eventually rise by between 2C and 5C.
Will be clear by 2020 if we can do this.
• U.S., China agree to cut greenhouse
gases – Nov. 12, 2014 May put
pressure on Canadian government to
be more aggressive in curbing its
greenhouse gas emissions
Nature in the Kawarthas is changing
• “Canary in the coal mine”
• Average annual temp. in Ontario warmed by 1.4 C
from 1948 to 2008
• by 2050. could warm by 2.5 C to 3.7 C
• Kawarthas are warming: Jan. 2010, 3 months out
of 4 warmer than 1971 – 2000 average (75%)
•Changes in dates of events in nature (e.g., leaf
out)
• Changes in numbers and kinds of some species
(e.g., opossum)
• More extreme events (March 2012)
• Concern for the future
• What can we do?
SOURCES
- Personal records
- Anecdotal reports from local naturalists
- Climate Change Research Reports (MNR)
- Trent University studies
- International studies
The Kawarthas: Peterborough County & City of Kawartha Lakes
West (C) to Balsam L., North to L. Catchacoma (P) , East to Kashabog L. (Q) , South to Rice L. (R)
Kawarthas
Kawarthas
2010 OMNR Report –
1971 - 2000: AMT (6- 8C) 2071 – 2100: AMT (10-12C)
Temperatures similar to southern Pennsylvania on the way
May no longer be suitable for present-day ecosystems
Arrival of southern bird species
“Southern birds” have increased in number
and have expanded their range northwards over recent decades
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher
Northern Cardinal – Bancroft, Minden
Hooded Warbler
Hooded Warbler – Ganaraska
Forest
Red-bellied Woodpecker
Birds wintering farther
north than 20 years
ago
Carolina Wren
• Study published Oct. 16 In “Global
Change Biology”
• based on 22 years of data from
Project FeederWatch
• Minimum winter temperature at
feeder sites gradually increased
• Species that used to winter solely in
the south started to spend winter
farther north
• Includes Carolina Wrens, Northern
Cardinal, Purple Finches, Eastern
Bluebirds & Red-bellied Woodpeckers
• Not just a result of feeding the birds.
Number of feeders has remained much
the same since 1991.
Eastern Bluebird
The arrival of the Virginia Opossum
Virginia Opossums, a southern species, are extending their range into the Kawarthas
Gannon Narrows – December 2012
Johnston Dr. Ptbo – Feb. 2014
Flying squirrel
hybridization
• With warmer winters, Southern
Flying Squirrels are moving north
into the Kawarthas and some are
mating with Northern Flying
Squirrels, a different species
• Hybrid squirrels are becoming
increasingly common
• Being explained as a possible
effect of climate change
• akin to Polar Bears & Grizzlies
mating ; also seen with Blackcapped & Carolina chickadees
(Trent University/MNR study 2009)
Butterflies: Southerners
on the march northward
• A number of southern (Carolinian) species
have expanded their range northwards over
the last two decades (e.g., Delaware Skipper,
Little Glassywing Skipper, Black Dash, Wild
Indigo Duskywing, Eastern Tiger Swallowtail,
Eastern Tailed Blue, Giant Swallowtail)
• Giant Swallowtail now common in
Kawarthas. Was restricted to extreme SW
Ontario
Giant Swallowtail – Canada’s
biggest butterfly
•Warmer winters may therefore allow some
species to expand their range. Warmer
summers may also be having an impact.
• In years with long, hot summers, we are now
seeing two broods of some species that were
formerly single-brooded (e.g., Peck’s Skipper,
Tawny-edged Skipper)
Source: James Kamstra, ecologist and
environmental consultant , AECOM
Delaware Skipper
Some migrants are, on average, returning earlier
with warming temperatures
Common Merganser
Red-winged Blackbird
Great Blue Heron
Common Grackle
Osprey
Common Loon
An earlier nesting
season
• Earlier springs are resulting in an
earlier start to the nesting season for
some resident birds & short-distance
migrants
• One large-scale study showed that
birds are laying eggs up at an average
rate of 6.6 days earlier per decade.
• Tree Swallows are nesting up to 9 days
earlier than 30 years ago
• No data specific to the Kawarthas
Mourning Dove
Source: Nature Canada
Tree Swallow
An earlier spring frog chorus
•
Peak calling period of early breeders is
now 10 – 20 days earlier than in 1995.
Spring Peepers, Wood Frogs, Chorus Frogs
and Northern Leopard Frogs (MNR study
published in Herpetological Conservation
and Biology, 2012)
Spring Peeper
Chorus Frog
Salamanders are mating earlier, too.
Earlier flowering of trees
Alberta study: Flower buds on Trembling Aspens now opening 2 weeks earlier
Red Maple
Speckled
Alder
Carolina
Poplar
Silver Maple
Earlier spring wildflower bloom
In recent years, peak bloom has been two to three weeks earlier than normal
Coltsfoot
White Trillium
Hepatica
Wild
Columbine
An earlier black
fly emergence
• Black flies are now in peak
numbers in late April through
early May
• In the 1960s, peak numbers
were not until mid- to late May
• Traditionally, May 24th
Weekend saw the worst black
fly conditions