Transcript Adaptation to global change: Movement towards

BRIAN CHALLENGER
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
Presentation to Pre-Sessional Consultations on the IPCC TAR Milan, Italy
27-28 November 2003
Increasing scientific evidence points to
evidence of changing climate and related
impacts. These correspond to changes
identified in the TAR for future climate
change.
In many instances altered weather
patterns provide signals that global
climate change is already having impacts.
This most visibly seen in extreme
weather events but also in less
dramatic longer term trends.
Nature of impacts demonstrated by WMO
estimate of doubling of the number of
hydro meteorological disasters in the last
decade. Recent extreme events include:
•
European summer heat wave
•
Drought in the Horn of Africa and
Southern Africa affecting millions of
persons
•
Hurricane Isabel in the Atlantic in
September 2003
Antigua and Barbuda “signals” include:
•
below average rainfall from 2000
(continuing earlier trends)
•
Increased number and intensity of heavy
rain events
*
Increased minimum temperatures
(daily and seasonal)
*
Heightened impact of El Nino event
Existing impacts on tourism sector,
foreign exchange, insurance and
employment.
Adaptation identified in IPCC TAR as a
Central element of the vulnerability and
impact assessment process. However
adaptation to Climate change remains
largely theoretical involving development
of conceptual frameworks and
methodologies.
Practical effects: Stage l and stage ll
Adaptation- emphasis on studies. Need to
move towards dynamic linkage between
theoretical focus and actions required to deal
with changing climate now and in the future.
Actions taken now will be affected by future
changes in climate and will themselves affect
ability to adapt. Therefore need for adaptive
actions at early juncture.
Assessment of vulnerability to climate
change starts with understanding of present
vulnerabilities. A similar practical approach
required for adaptation.
Development of adaptation responses
must also be based on an understanding of
adaptations to existing climate, particularly
adaptation to extreme events. Adaptation
cannot realistically be seen as a future action
if sustainable development is to be achieved.
Essential elements of adaptation are:
• Scientific knowledge and
understanding
• Awareness of critical issues
• Capacity to adapt
These elements allow for integration of
adaptive measures into ongoing and
planned activity.
Specific areas already relevant to
climate change adaptation are:
* Coastal zone management and
protection
* Disaster response
* Development control
Methodological tools and technology
already available to enable adaptation
in these areas.
Emphasis to date has been on seeking
integration of climate change into
development planning in SIDS.
Limited success to date not surprising
given limited extent of economic Planning
in SIDS. Emphasis should include
integration of climate change into
development control which generally a
more well established process.
Environmental Impact Assessment: another
tool providing opportunity for incorporating
climate change into development control
and planning process.
Need to make available financial resources for
climate change adaptation for projects in these
sectors that:
(1)
Incorporate existing knowledge of climate
change
(2)
Aim to reduce vulnerability to present and
future climate variability
(3)
Meet other sustainable development criteria
Conclusion:
• Climate change impacts are already
being experienced in varying locations:
in many instances through extreme
events
• Action needed now to incorporate
adaptation into development control and
planning process using existing
knowledge and tools
Conclusion continued..
Conclusion continued:
• Development community should
recognize need to move beyond academic
studies and towards supporting existing
disaster response, coastal zone, and
development control initiatives that
incorporate best practices and available
information relating to climate change
vulnerability and adaptation.