Transcript Albania - PromitheasNet

6-th Annual International Conference on
“Energy and Climate Change”.
Athens, Greece, October 09th 2013
“Climate change policy mixtures and assessment of
different scenarios for Albania”
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Andonaq LAMANI
Department of Energy, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Polytechnic University of Tirana,
“Mother Teresa” Square, No. 4, Tirana, Albania, e-mail: [email protected]
Introduction
Levels of CO2 emissions in Albania are about
5-times lower than average international
levels (WRI 2011).
This is because (EC 2008):
 a high percentage of electricity is produced
by hydro power plants;
 energy consumption per capita is low, and
 industrial productivity has continued to fall.
Spectrum of climate change mitigation options for Albania
Furthermore, the Albanian energy sector is facing the following
problems which may be an obstacle to further economic
development:
i) high dependence on hydropower (World Bank, 2010);
ii) limited regional electricity interconnections at present (World
Bank, 2010);
iii) high level of energy import dependence (2.538 TWh or 33.3% at
2012) (ERE, 2012);
iv) high technical and commercial losses from the distribution
system (3.346 TWh or 43.9% at 2012) (ERE, 2012);
v) (10-20)% of water resources are lost in the irrigation system
(UNDP, 2012).
Spectrum of adaptation needs in Albania
The future climate scenario for Albania predicts (GEF, 2006):
 increased temperatures;
 decreased precipitation, and
 reduction of arable land and water resources.
The most vulnerable area is Albania’s coastal zone, while the
most vulnerable sectors are expected to be (GEF, 2006):
 water resources;
 agriculture;
 energy, and
 tourism.
Scenarios
BUSINESS – AS – USUAL SCENARIO (2000 – 2050)
BAU scenario description
The BAU scenario is structured by:
i. Laws, regulations, Ministerial Decisions or presidential
Degrees which are related with the climate change problem,
were included;
ii. The mitigation/adaptation policy instruments that Albania
has set into force before 1st January 2011.
Scenarios
OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO (2000 – 2050)
Optimistic scenario description
The Optimistic scenario is structured by:
i) the mitigation/adaptation policy instruments that Albania has
set into force after 1st January 2011;
ii) additional policy instruments in line with the EU climate
change policy that can be adjusted to the needs and
priorities of Albania, and
iii) the maximum exploitation of the potential of Albania in
energy efficiency and renewable energy sources.
Scenarios
PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO (2000 – 2050)
Pessimistic scenario description
The Pessimistic scenario is structured by:
i) the mitigation/adaptation policy instruments that Albania has
set into force after 1st January 2011;
ii) no other additional policy instruments apart from those
already decided to be implemented and in line with the EU
climate change policy, which will be adjusted to the needs
and priorities of Albania, and
iii) the minimum exploitation of the potential of Albania in
energy efficiency and renewable energy sources.
Official data sources
Albanian institutions which are involved in the data collecting process, are:
 INSTAT- Institute of Statistics www.instat.gov.al
 ERE- Albanian Energy Regulatory Authority www.ere.gov.al
 APC- Albanian Power Corporation www.kesh.com.al
 OST- Transmission System Operator www.ost.al
 CEZ Distribution www.cez.al
 Bank of Albania www.bankofalbania.al
 Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Energy www.mete.gov.al
 Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Water Administration www.moef.gov.al
 Ministry of Finance www.minfin.gov.al
 Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Consumer Protection
http://www.mbumk.gov.al/
 National Agency of Natural Resources www.akbn.gov.al
Other International Institutions are:
World Bank www.worldbank.org, International Monetary Fund www.imf.org
Energy Community http://www.energy-community.org, USAID www.usaid.gov
UN Development Programme www.undp.org, International Energy Agency
www.iea.org, Energy Charter http://www.encharter.org, etc.
Demographics: Population
Economy: Gross Domestic Product
Climate statistics: Temperature
Climate statistics: Precipitation
Policies and Measures: Land management
Energy Demand: Households sector
Energy Demand: Agricultural sector
Energy Demand: Industrial sector
Energy Demand: Commercial and Public sectors
Energy Demand: Other sectors
Energy Demand: Transport sector
Energy Demand: Non-specified sectors
Transformation: All plants
Global warming potential (GHG emissions)
All sectors
Assessment of the three developed scenarios
The multi - criteria method AMS is used for the assessment of
the 3-developed scenarios for Albania.
The AMS method
Each scenario is assessed for its
performance under the
criteria/sub-criteria of the AMS method. This method is a
combination of three standard multi-criteria methods:
 the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP),
 the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT), and
 the Simple Multi-Attribute Ranking Technique (SMART).
Assessment of the three developed scenarios
1-Criteria: Environmental Performance (16.8 %)
2-Criteria: Political acceptability (73.8 %)
3-Criteria: Feasibility of implementation (9.4 %)
Result: The best scenario
Assessment of the three developed scenarios
The structure
Assessment of the three developed scenarios
Total emissions in Albania
Scenario
BAU
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Total GHG emissions (in MtCO2eq)
2000
3.664
3.664
3.664
2020
5.816
4.942
5.808
2050
11.939
11.212
12.111
Assessment of the three developed scenarios
Emissions per each sector in Albania
Scenario
Households
BAU
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Agriculture
BAU
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Services
BAU
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Industry
BAU
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Transport
BAU
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Electricity generation
BAU
Optimistic
Pessimistic
GHG emissions (in MtCO2eq)
2000
2020
2050
0.178
0.178
0.178
0.380
0.316
0.348
0.860
0.796
0.828
0.413
0.413
0.413
0.235
0.230
0.232
0.493
0.482
0.487
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.145
0.121
0.133
0.304
0.280
0.292
0.394
0.394
0.394
0.835
0.687
0.762
1.752
1.604
1.678
1.438
1.438
1.438
2.601
2.148
2.393
5.457
4.938
5.240
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.381
0.203
0.702
0.477
0.517
0.990
Assessment of the three developed scenarios
Other environmental effects in Albania under each scenario
Scenario
In MtCO2 eq
2000
2020
2050
Environmental effects (Carbon Monoxide (CO)- Nitrogen Oxides
(NOx)- Non Methane Volatile Organic Compounds- Sulfur
Dioxide)
BAU
0.297
0.471
0.994
Optimistic
0.297
0.395
0.914
Pessimistic
0.297
0.439
0.963
Assessment of the three developed scenarios
Water use in Albania
Scenario
2000
Household water use
BAU
1.760
Optimistic
1.760
Pessimistic
1.760
Industrial water use
BAU
0.211
Optimistic
0.211
Pessimistic
0.211
Agricultural water use
BAU
1.040
Optimistic
1.040
Pessimistic
1.040
In billion m3
2020
2050
1.830
1.880
1.880
1.830
1.740
1.740
0.217
0.263
0.263
0.217
0.551
0.551
1.045
1.086
1.102
1.045
1.155
1.193
Assessment of the three developed scenarios
Initial settings for the 3-scenarios in ClimAMS-2012
Assessment of the three developed scenarios
Criterion 1: Environmental performance
1) The first sub-criterion “Direct contribution to GHG emission reductions”;
2) The second sub-criterion “Indirect environmental effects”.
Assessment of the three developed scenarios
Criterion 2: Political acceptability
Results for each sub-criterion:
1) Cost efficiency;
2) Dynamic cost efficiency ;
3) Competitiveness;
4) Equity;
5) Flexibility;
6) Stringency for
non-compliance ”.
Assessment of the three developed scenarios
Criterion 3: Feasibility of implementation
1) First sub-criterion “Implementation network capacity ”;
2) Second sub-criterion “Administrative feasibility ”;
3) Third sub-criterion “Financial feasibility ”.
Assessment of the three developed scenarios
Results of AMS method
Assessment of the three developed scenarios
AMS results for each scenario for Albania
Criteria
Direct contribution to GHG emission reductions (0.833)
Indirect environmental effects (0.167)
Environmental performance (0.168) - A
Cost efficiency (0.474)
Dynamic cost efficiency (0.183)
Competitiveness (0.085)
Equity (0.175)
Flexibility (0.051)
Stringency for non-compliance (0.032)
Political acceptability (0.738) - B
Implementation network capacity (0.309)
Administrative feasibility (0.581)
Financial feasibility (0.110)
Feasibility of implementation (0.094) - C
Total (A+B+C)
BAU
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
5.060
1.894
0.000
0.975
0.811
8.740
13.534
25.447
3.058
42.039
10.402
Scenarios
Optimistic
83.300
16.700
100.000
47.300
8.080
4.713
17.500
2.467
1.295
81.355
8.683
16.327
4.883
29.893
79.650
Pessimistic
0.762
7.032
7.794
16.765
5.060
1.894
0.198
1.557
1.295
26.768
8.683
16.327
3.058
28.068
23.703
The final grades demonstrate that OPTIMISTIC scenario has the best performance in achieving the
objectives of the Albanian climate change policy taking into consideration the national framework.
However, it has specific weaknesses under the criterion “feasibility of implementation”.
Scodra town during
2010 heavy floods
www.gazeta-shqip.com
Thank You For Your Attention!
Prof.Dr.-Ing. Andonaq LAMANI
Department of Energy, F.M.E.-P.U.T.
e-mail: [email protected]