Transcript Economics - NIORO Case Study

NIORO case study
Amy Faye ISRA-BAME
Objectives
• Climate change impact assessment
• Objectives : Assess the distributional impact of climate
change in the region of Nioro (in Senegal) and how adaptation
strategies can help to cope with climate change
• Expected outputs and outcomes
-Expected outputs: populations (especially small holder farmers)
will be negatively affected by climate change
-Expected outcomes: higher temperatures, high variations in
precipitation, elevated poverty rate, decrease in yields, lower
net returns at farm-level, decrease of nutrition level, decrease
in soil nutrients (due to soil erosion)
Population and Strata
• Population of farmers in the region of Nioro
located in the south of the peanut basin (an
agro ecological zone in Senegal)
• Strata
-sub-population of small farms
-sub-population of large farms
Systems
System 1: Base technology , base climate
• Sub-systems & corresponding activities:
- Crop subsystem : peanut, millet
- Livestock subsystem: cattle, donkeys, poultry,
small ruminants
System diagram
Labor
Peanut
Cooking
Cooking
Millet
Labor (animal
traction) and soil
fertilizer
Labor
Cooking and
transportation
Livestock
Labor
Household
Design of System 2: 2 cases
->Case 1: climate change without adoption
System 2: Base technology and climate change
->Case 2: climate change with adoption
system 2: Adapted technology (e.g. new drought
resistant variety of peanut, millet or both, improved
species of livestock which have higher productivity for
milk and meat, and higher tolerance of heat) and
climate change
RAPs
Low adaptation challenges:
higher rates of economic growth, household size increases, so labor
is available, market prices are sufficiently high to allow high revenues
Government supports research to develop new varieties to facilitate
farmers’ adaptation
Enhanced adoption of improved millet varieties from ICRISAT and
other CGIAR breeding efforts (as well as that of ISRA and other
Senegalese researchers)
At the processing level – there is better control of aflatoxin in
peanuts, that increases the market potential for peanut oil as an export
Better integration within the ECOWAS and UMEOA/WAEMU
countries along the CAADP priorities – and full adoption of a CAADPfocused compact at the political level in Senegal
RAPs (cont.)
Improved infrastructure within the region – especially roads and the
availability of refrigeration for milk, so that dairy production losses are
cut and market potential is improved
High adaptation challenges:
decrease in household size so less labor
 financial constraints: no possibility of having loans, market prices
not really high: that prevent from getting high revenues
decrease in soil quality and agricultural productivity
Continued stagnation of groundnut productivity within the peanut
basin
RAPs (cont.)
Continued problems with controlling aflatoxin levels in
peanuts, which limits the market potential for peanut oil as
an export good – continuing fall in export market share for
Senegal
Slow adoption of improved millet varieties from ICRISAT
and other CGIAR breeding efforts -- and poor extension to
farmers
Slow integration within the ECOWAS and UMEOA
/WAEMU countries along the CAADP priorities – and delay
in the negotiations and adoption of a CAADP-focused
compact at the political level in Senegal
Poor state of infrastructure persists within the region – especially
roads and the lack of refrigeration facilities for milk, so that dairy
production losses remain high and market potential is reduced
Slow development by research and adoption of improved species
of livestock which limits productivity growth for milk and meat
Persistence of poorly-functioning or non-existence markets for
fodder and feed –which limits potential for growth in the livestock
sector
Outcomes and Indicators
• Outcome variable descriptions
Temperature, precipitation, crop-specific yields,
farm-level net returns, human nutrition level,
soil nutrients’ variables, household income
• Indicator definitions
Mean net returns, poverty rate
Data and Estimation
• Sources of data :
Survey of farms by village ENEA-ISRA (20002004) for the TOA project in the peanut basin
• Types of data
– Farm household data (area, hh size, income…)
– Production, price and cost data
– Outcome variables data
Parameters for system 1
• Sub system: Crop
– Activity1: peanut
– Activity 2: millet
• Sub
system: Livestock
– Activity 1: small ruminants
– Activity 2: cattle, donkeys, goats
– Activity 3: poultry
System 1 : Parameters
Farm characteristics
HH size (persons)
Farm size (acres)
Crop: Groundnuts
Yield /farm (kg)
Variable cost /farm (Rs.)
Net return/farm (Rs)
Price (Rs./kg)
Mean
16,83
SD
8,85
CV (%)
52,58
Issues in data set
-Crops
– Available data does not include non-agricultural
income
Livestock
– No information on livestock
– No information on climate variables (precipitation
and temperature)
General
-Data cannot be used to compute parameters for
system 1 because the data base needs some
cleaning