Transcript NUS_and_climate_change

Underutilized Species and Climate Change:
exploring the issues involved, scope for
research and Bioversity’s possible role
Mikkel, Stefano, Irmgard, others
4 Feb 2008 - Bioversity Planning Week
Outline
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Climate change: introduction
Agriculture and climate change: what we know
NUS and climate change: issues involved
Bioversity NUS and CC: research scope and role
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
Climate change: introduction
Agriculture and climate change: what we know
NUS and climate change: issues involved
Bioversity NUS and CC: research scope and role
 Climate change is happening NOW and it is a reality
 Most victims are poor, they loose more and recover
less
 Significant barriers, extra challenges to meet MDGs
 Enhances existing risks and vulnerability of people
 Flood, droughts, storm/cyclone, salinity intrusion etc
destroys annual harvests of Asia and the Pacific
 Vulnerability is highest in LDCs in the tropics and
subtropical areas
Sources of Green House Gases
Energy Sector
• Energy Industry
• Manufacturing Industries
• Transport
• Residential Sector
• Commercial
• Agriculture
Agriculture Sector
•
Crop Agriculture
•
Livestock and Manure Management-
Landuse Change and Forestry
•
Conversion of Land
•
Consumption of Timber and Deforestation
Predicted Changes in Climate
Rainfall
 Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes
 Decreased water availability and drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low
latitudes
Temperature
 Global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C from 1990 to
2100 (best estimates 1.8 to 5.4)
Sea level rise
 Sea levels are likely to rise in the range of 22-34 cm between 1990 and the
2080s
Extreme events
 Likely that future tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes will become
more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation
Rahman and Alam, 2007
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC)
Report 2007:
Mountain glaciers and snow cover have
declined on average in both
hemispheres. Widespread decreases
in glaciers and ice caps have
contributed to sea level rise
Global average sea level rose at an
average rate of 1.8 mm per year
over 1961 to 2003.
Long-term trends from 1900 to 2005
have been observed in precipitation
amount over many large regions.
Significantly increased
precipitation has been observed in
eastern parts of North and South
America, northern Europe and
northern and central Asia.
Marr Glacier in Antarctica
Rapid thinning of the Greenland ice sheet
Outline
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Climate change: introduction
Agriculture and climate change: what we know
NUS and climate change: issues involved
Bioversity NUS and CC: research scope and role
Bolivia. Source: Annie Lane
 The impact on agriculture will vary
greatly over time and across locations,
depending on agro-ecologies,
production systems and plant/animal sp
 Climate change will cause shifts in
areas suitable for cultivation of many
crops (N.USA, Canada and most of
Europe increase in suitable area),
 Significant losses of genetic
resources in several regions
 Sub-Saharan Africa and the
Caribbean will lose suitable land –
countries with least capacity to cope
with climate change..
Modeling climate change
impacts on major crops
• To identify crops and regions most afflicted by
climate change
• The Ecocrop model (http://ecocrop.fao.org/) used
as base analyzed against two future downscaled
GCM output models: HADCM3 model and
CCCMA model
• Examine the global changes in suitability for 43
‘Annex 1’ listed crops of the FAO International
Treaty, plus groundnut, soybean, sugar cane
Average changes
in suitability for
the HADCM3
model (top) and
CCCMA model
(bottom).
Blue = increase in
suitability
Red = reduction in
suitability.
Crops include
Annex 1 of ITPGRFA
Other cash crops
Crops to be affected:
23 crops likely to suffer significant
decreases in suitable areas on av.:
typically cold weather crops,
including strawberry (32%), wheat
(18%), rye (16%), apple (12%), oats
(12%) (Annex 1).
Crops expected to gain:
20 crops likely to gain in
suitable areas:
– The biggest gains are for
pearl millet (31%), sunflower
(18%), common millet (16%),
chick pea (15%) and soya
bean (14%),
Many of the “gains” occur in regions where these crops are
currently not integral component of food-security
Overall, suitable area for crop cultivation is projected to increase...
Country to gain: Finland
climate warming forecasts
in south-central areas
Yearly av. Temp.
Yearly rainfall
2020
+1,2C
2050
+2,4C
2100
+4,4C
+3%
+6%
+11%
by 2050:
Yearly growth period extended by 4 weeks.
Effective growth temperature sum increasing 25%.
Winter days with snow cover decreasing 20-40%.
General climate becomes more maritime.
Outline
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2.
3.
4.
Climate change: introduction
Agriculture and climate change: what we know
NUS and climate change: issues involved
Bioversity NUS and CC: research scope and role
Why NUS in the context of CC?
 Represented mostly by wild species, ecotypes, landraces
 Local importance in consumption and production systems
 Highly adapted to agro-ecological niches/marginal areas
 Little attention by National Policies, R&D
 Poor documentation (distribution, biology, cultivation, uses)
 Non existent/poorly organized marketing & “filiere”
 Cultivated and utilized relying on Indigenous Knowledge
 Scarcely represented in ex situ germplasm collections
 Maintained mainly through in situ /on-farm conservation
 Characterized by non existent/fragile seed supply systems
 Characterized by multiple uses
Traditional societies deploy strategies that use
genetic diversity to reduce risks and mitigate
impacts of long term environmental change:
Sahelian, Andean, Himalayan farmers plant many
crops and crop varieties that allow them to adjust
planting dates and crop mixtures to erratic rainfall
patterns, e.g. sorghum, millets and fonio, floating
rice African rice.
Bambara groundnut
(Vigna subterranea)
Fonio (Digitaria
exilis), Bamako
market (Mali).
Kreb (mixture of a
dozen cereals such
as Eragrostis tef,
Echinocloa spp.,
Panicum spp.).
Fonio in Bamako (Mali)
Vigna marina
(Iñhaca island,
Mozambique)
Andean grains
quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa) cañihua (C. pallidicaule)
amaranth (Amaranthus caudatus) lupin (Lupinus album)
Ghana: 2,500 useful
Mediterranean:
137 vegetables
Kenya: 800 food species
China: 5,000 medicinal
North America:
1,112 edible
India: 2,500 medicinal
Malaysia:
800 fruit trees
Sahel: 800 edible
Peru:
168 home gardens
Swaziland: 200 edible
RICH but POORLY EXPLOITED
NATIONAL ENDOWMENTS
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
Climate change: introduction
Agriculture and climate change: what we know
NUS and climate change: issues involved
Bioversity NUS and CC: research scope and role
Rationale
NUS are widely recognized to provide
essential livelihood options to the poor and
marginal farmers. Their adaptability and
resilience to stresses provide farmers with
needed coping strategies to confront with
climate changes.
Justification
1. Research: as leading Agency working on NUS need
to fill important knowledge gap re NUS and their roles
in CC scenarios;
2. Conservation: Changes in land use due to climate
change may further marginalize NUS – currently not
attractive from an economic perspective and with no
ready-to-use enhancement packages;
3. Livelihood: Because of their very limited
conservation, documentation (incl. IK) and poor seed
systems, CC would certainly accelerate the loss of
their genetic diversity and exacerbates reduction of
livelihood options among the poor;
IPCC First
Assessment
Report - 1990
Climate
+ Impacts
(Costeffectiveness)
IPCC Second
Assessment
Report - 1995
Climate
+ Impacts
Costeffectiveness
(Equity)
Najam et al., 2003 and Alam, 2007
IPCC Third
Assessment
Report - 2001
Climate
+ Impacts
Costeffectiveness
Equity
(Alternative
Development
Pathway)
IPCC Fourth
Assessment
Report - 2007
Climate
+ Impacts
Costeffectiveness
Equity
Alternative
Development
Pathway
(Sustainable
Development)
Example of current adaptation in Bangladesh
Changes of cropping patterns:
 Plant two or more crops
instead of one or a spring and
fall crop with a short fallow
period to avoid excessive heat
and drought in midsummer.
 New crop and SPECIES
varieties: to address flood,
drought and saline tolerant
varieties
Examples from Bangladesh
Increase income through
alternative livelihoods using
local species:
Vegetable farming
Household level nurseries
Examples from Bangladesh
Floating gardens/farming
Research issues / objectives
•
Confirm hypothesis of comparative advantages of NUS in
drier, saline, marginal areas (answer the many WHICH?
WHERE? HOW?);
•
Assess impact of CC on genetic diversity distribution
patterns and use management of NUS;
•
Develop methods and tools to assist partners in deployment
of NUS in adaptation, mitigation and risk coping strategies.
Opportunities
1. Possible launching in 2008 of new entity (“Crops for the
Future”) that would continue GFU mission.
2. Interest by the Spanish to support Conference on NUS and
climate change late this year in Cordoba.
3. Current finalization of System Priority 1B (dealing with NUS).
4. Take advantage of possible dedicated project to develop
framework to conserve NUS diversity and IK
5. Raise visibility of NUS to influence relevant policies (a new
Treaty for NUS?)
6. Link to existing work on CWR and Forest spp. (EUFORGEN)
and IFAD-NUS (prepare way for IFAD NUS III to focus on CC?)
Enhancing use through greater competitiveness: availability
of new technologies and opening-up of new markets will
allow people to move into marginal areas previously less
populated where NUS are better suited...
Conclusions
 Areas so far occupied by major crops will shift as a
result of climate change and these can be used for
more adaptable NUS;
 International community needs findings to support
hypothesis- Bioversity well positioned to tackle
research challenge;
 Work to link with existing efforts- not starting from
scratch!
 Momentum that favors research in this direction
 Africa should deserve greater focus
 Cordoba Conference could help strategizing
 Assessing diversity & CC, suitable policies,
empowering community as pillars of work