Transcript Preparing for Peak Oil - Melbourne Area Transition

Melbourne
Making the transition from oil dependency to
community resilience
Presented by
Graham Truscott and Sarah Spencer
Melbourne Area Transition
What we will do in the next
90 minutes…
1. Explore:
- resource depletion
- peak oil
- climate change
2. Discuss the implications for this area
3. Encourage you to support Melbourne Area Transition
initiatives and energise this community
It’s nice here. We’re OK.
Big economic, political,
environmental issues will
never affect us much…
….will they ?
Let’s explore the issues…
What are these guys sitting on ?
What is the date ?
(It’s copper ore in the 1890s)
Bingham Canyon Mine, Utah
This is where we mine copper ore today
- Note the trucks…
What do you think?
“Global resource depletion will severely affect
me, my family and Melbourne within the next
few years”
“Global resource depletion and supply issues
will never significantly affect me, my family or
Melbourne”
Climate change
If Carbon dioxide
was visible…
The sky would have
changed colour in the
past thirty years….
Climate change – feedbacks
kicking in…
…are so obvious that legislation
at international and national
level aims to solve the problem
Upsala Glacier, Argentina
The black line shows
it’s actually much
worse than the
predictions.
What do we use oil for ?
Transition Training 2009
Oil
Can you think of:
1.
2.
Any aspect of life in Melbourne today that is not
dependent on oil.
Every aspect of everyday life in Melbourne that
was dependent on oil in 1860 or 1910.
Ready availability of “cheap” oil has
significantly changed Melbourne…
In 1860 or 1910 personal transport was limited.
Today almost every household has a car and foreign holidays
are commonplace…
In 1860 or 1910 the majority of residents lived and
worked within walking distance of their homes.
Today, some residents commute across the world…
In 1860 or 1910 most of Melbourne’s food and daily
needs would have come from within ten miles.
And today…?
In 1860 Melbourne was robust
- 3,500 acres with all kinds
of industry
- produced its own food
- educated its own children
- brewed its own beer
- made its own clothes
- built its own houses with
local materials
So what makes us different from 1860 ?
Oil has given us the equivalent of
seven league boots – enabling
every aspect our “modern” lives…
But the result is our fossil
fuel addiction
The developed world
gets about 80% of its
energy from fossil
fuels (oil is ancient
sunlight).
95% of food consumed in the UK – and therefore also in
Melbourne - is dependent on fossil fuels for fertiliser,
pesticides, processing, packaging and transport.
And it’s not sustainable…
Climate
Change
End of
Cheap
Energy
Energy
Security
End of cheap energy: Peak oil
Dr M. King Hubbert, Shell Oil geologist
According to the International Energy Agency World oil
production has already peaked – so we have used
more oil than there is left in the ground
Individual countries in decline
UK
• Discovery peaked
1974
• Production peaked
1999
Egypt
• Discovery peaked
1963
• Production peaked
1993
Source: Dr Campbell, ASPO
Other regions in decline
Indonesia
• Discovery peaked
1945
• Production peaked
1977
Russia
• Discovery peaked
1960
• Production peaked
1987
Source: Dr Campbell, ASPO
64 countries have peaked….
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009
The major oil companies are
also declining…
•
•
•
•
•
Chevron peak production was in 2002
Royal Dutch Shell in 2003
Total in 2004
BP in 2005
ExxonMobil in 2006
And now (Nov 2010) the IEA says the
world passed peak oil production in 2006…
Growing energy shortfall…as
production declines…
45 mb/d
deficit
even if
demand
remains
linear
2010
Near-term shocks and crises
on the energy descent…
Oil price began rising in 2003/4
Replacing conventional oil
“There isn't anything conceivable that could replace
conventional oil, in the same quantity and energy density:
• We can't mine oil sands in sufficient quantity because
there isn't enough water to process them.
• We can't grow bio-fuels because there would be no
land left to grow food.
• Solar, hydro, wind, and geothermal don't yield
enough energy.
• Hydrogen (from water) takes more energy to make
than it can yield.
• Coal has massive climate change implications and
supply will peak soon too.
• Nuclear too little too late and is a derivative of oil.”
Source: Miller, BP Exploration UK, Jan 2004
Energy security
Where will Britain get its energy?
• From Russia
with love ?
• Invade an oil
rich country ?
• Cosy up to
dictatorships ?
The economic overlay
In 1960 1 unit of energy extracted 100 units of oil.
Today 1 unit of energy extracts only 5 units of oil.
When the ratio reaches 1:1 it will no longer be worth
extracting.
Day of reckoning for massive global financial debt has only
been postponed and deepened by printing money…
The economic overlay
We have borrowed from our own future - economically and
environmentally.
We will have to manage with much less oil - and less “wealth”
Many people have a sense of entitlement:
“less” and “austerity” do not go down well:
Initial symptoms of
Peak Oil awareness…
Denial
A sense of bewilderment
Fear
Depression
Outbreaks of nihilism
Irrational grasping at unfeasible
solutions
Cultural visions
Visions of a future without cheap oil tend
to fall into two camps:
Techno-Utopia
Something wonderful will happen and we’ll
discover an everlasting source of energy.
Or Armageddon
 A mad dash by nations to secure
resources.
 Wars. Pestilence.
 Economic collapse
 Climate catastrophe
Adapted from D. Lerch, Post Carbon Institute
So what will happen here
…as energy becomes scarce…?
Transport and land use will change
Energy consumption will change
The community – where it works and
plays - will change
Changes will be driven by near–term shocks…
…but we can begin to reduce our vulnerability NOW !
Layers of necessary action…..
Global
• Protocols
• CO2 quotas
(Contraction
and
National
Convergenc
- rationing
e)
- carbon caps
• Kyoto and
new
international
agreements
Community
• Transition
towns, cities,
villages,
Personal
Reassessment,
Reconnection
and
Responsibility
What future do you imagine ?
Continued mass consumerism ?
Ready availability of everything you have today, and more…
…for ever ?
Oil price spikes and crises – affecting everything ?
One car per street ? Solar panels on every roof ?
Where will our food come from ?
Communities are building
resilience to the problems right
NOW…eg,
Ashby-de-La Zouch (Ashby 2020)
Bristol City (Peak Oil report, food mapping, 2020 goal)
Totnes (Energy Descent Action Plan)
Somerset County Council (Resolution and Peak oil training
for all staff)
Ashton Hayes, Cheshire - see their award winning film
What might local resilience
look like ?
Food
• Rapid expansion of local food
production
• Reduction of fossil fuel use in the
food system,
• Local food networks bringing
producers and consumers
together.
Education
• Smaller local schools (secondary
school back in Melbourne ?)
• Emphasis on vocational subjects,
building, cooking, horticulture ?
Healthcare
Local healthcare centres and the
local production of medicines ?
Oil-resilient transport
Shift from private to public
transport, share-schemes, cycling
and walking.
Expansion of existing
programmes – especially
where low cost
Locally produced, renewable fuels
(such as biogas or renewable
electricity) in public transport ?
Fewer people able to afford private
cars ?
Reducing food vulnerability ?
Community supported agriculture eg, Whetstone, Leicestershire
Growing food in gardens and common land (eg school grounds –
like Silverhill School, Mickleover )
So what will happen here ?
Melbourne people anticipate
the possible future scenarios…
We take responsibility for the
transition to a low-carbon,
energy- constrained near future ?
We cooperate with our
neighbours ?
We reduce our vulnerability and
build our resilience to shocks ?
We can
control our
own future…
Melbourne Area Transition
Local residents taking responsibility and urgent
action at the community level NOW !
Four major projects already underway
(November 2010):
•
•
•
•
Parish Church solar PV
Community woodland on Forestry Commission land
Low Carbon Melbourne (with SDDC)
Melbourne School demonstration food forest
proposal
Church 10 kW PV project
Panels installed at
Sleaford Church –
also Grade 1 listed
Panels will be anchored to south facing
nave and aisle roofs – invisible from
below. A monitor screen in the church
will give real time power-generation
data. Installation will last 25 years and
be totally reversible.
Church 10 kW PV project
The PV panels
will not affect the
scenic splendour
of the church,
but will be a
great example of
commitment to a
better future…
Community woodland project
19 hectares of
Forestry Commission
land on edge of Robin
Wood
Community woodland project
19 hectares of
Forestry Commission
land on edge of Robin
Wood
• Biomass coppice (enough to power Melbourne
Leisure Centre ?)
• Demonstration orchard/food forest
• Multi-purpose planting
• Green burials ?
• Community training and teaching
• Increased amenity, wildlife diversity/CO2 offset
• A growing community resource as the transition
takes place...
Low carbon Melbourne project
•
•
•
•
•
•
Professional free home energy surveys
In conjunction with South Derbyshire District Council
Free or very low cost insulation for many households
Reduces carbon emissions, home running costs
Keeps you warmer !
Energy information gadgets and giveaways!
Melbourne Junior School
• Proposal for a demonstration food forest
• The start of a dialogue about oil dependency
• Hoping to reach parents as well - before oil shortages do…
Silver Hill School,
Mickleover. Food forest
garden under construction
(Spring 2010)
Food forest concept
•
Mimics a natural forest ecosystem, except that the species
chosen are all usable by humans for food and other purposes
(eg, building materials, nitrogen fixing or medicines).
What is Transition?
Began 5 years ago – rapidly growing
independent grass-roots movement
Building resilience and sustainability
through stronger communities and
local action – not a protest march…


Vision of a low carbon,
energy-constrained future
less reliant on fossil fuels
Positive approach to deliver
happier, healthier, safer
places to live – seeing crises
as opportunities
Transition groups and
communities
England 300+
Holland 1
Scotland 25
Israel 1
Wales 32
Italy 4
Northern Ireland 3 Mexico 1
Ireland 13
Netherlands 1
Australia 27
New Zealand 34
Argentina 1
South Africa 2
Belgium 1
Spain 6
Canada 14
Sweden 4
Chile 1
Switzerland 1
France 2
United States 55
Transition principles…
1.
Sustainability - Life with less energy is inevitable so we
help others to become more sustainable rather than be
taken by surprise….
2.
Resilience – Building resilience to cope with energy and
economic shocks….
3.
Empowerment – Helping take responsibility and
encouraging everyone to act now
4.
Creativity – Encouraging communities to grow more
enriching, satisfying and connected
Melbourne has the skills..
Community spirit ?
Tradition of food production ?
High tech skills and expertise ?
Resourcefulness ?
Creativity ?
Willingness/empowerment ?
still here
still here
may be greater than in 1860 ?
surely yes ?
surely yes ?
what do you think…?
John Joseph Briggs 1829-1875
Melbourne resident and diarist
“We have endeavoured in our
day and generation to leave the
world better than we found it…
I hope those who come after us
will strive to accomplish the same
object…”
A more resilient Melbourne
– and a better community
future….isn’t it up to us, the
people of Melbourne ?
www.transitionmelbourne.org