Transcript Kevin Love - Presentation

Come rain, hail or shine:
Planning for a challenging
climate future
Kevin Love, Deputy Secretary
Sir Nicolas Stern
“This is an
externality
like none
other”
This is an economic and social problem –
not just an environmental or scientific
issue
“Risks,
scales and
uncertainties
are
enormous”
“Business-asusual is dead”
“…a big
probability of
a
devastating
outcome”
Vulnerability in Australia
Coastal communities
Biodiversity
Water security
(from IPCC 2007)
Some regional impacts in Victoria
Some regional impacts on public land
Alpine resorts
•
Shorter drier winters mean the area cover by
snow for 60 days per year will shrink substantially
by 2050. Implications for winter tourism & already
endangered alpine species
Coasts
•
Low lying coastal assets and
infrastructure will be increasing exposed
to vulnerable to rising sea levels, storm
surges and flooding
Rivers, streams crown frontages
•Overall drying trend combined with increasing demand fo
water
•Lower flows and recharge rates will impact quality of
habitat and ecosystem functions
Adapted from Victorian Climate Change Green Paper 2009.
Harbinger of the future?
Satellite composite of land
surface temperature
January 25th to February
1st 2009 compared to
average mid-summer
temperatures between
2000 and 2008.
January 2009 was also the second
driest in the 159 year record with only
0.8 millimetres of rain (average is 48
mm)
(From www.earthoberatory.nasa.gov)
The impacts: heatwave
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374 excess deaths over what would be expected (62% increase)
25% increase in emergency cases to Ambulance Victoria (spiked to
a 46% increase over the three hottest days)
More 1300 train service cancelled during the week of January 27th
VECCI estimated the economic cost at more than $100 million
(from shut downs, absenteeism, sales and lost stock)
Average per capita water consumption in Melbourne was 207 litres
a person per day.
Melbourne's water storages plunged by 0.7 per cent in a week,
down to 33.1 per cent capacity
Thousands of households lost food and groceries because of power
disruptions.
More than 1000 grey-headed flying foxes died in Melbourne (on
Feb 7th more than 4000 died). This equated to 1/5 of the Victorian
permanent colony.
The impacts: Black Saturday Bushfires
•
173 lives lost
•
3400 buildings destroyed or damaged
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55 businesses destroyed
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430,000 hectares of land burnt
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80 communities directly effected
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11,000 farm animals killed or injured
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10,280 insurance claims totalling $1.1 billion
How can we anticipate, plan for and adapt to
climate change?
•
Improved understanding of climate change science and climate variability will help,
but recognise that significant uncertainties will remain
•
Need robust planning across range of possible futures
– Some things sensible to do no matter how bad things are going to get
– consideration of adaptive vs transformational action
– Plan across a range of time frames
•
Adaptive management & policy development that fosters
– integration with existing policies and measures
– flexibility to manage uncertainty and changing risks
– regular review and refinement
– search for no regrets, low regret and win-win options
– a portfolio of actions to manage risk
•
Partnerships, communication & collaboration
Policy tools
Each tool has a place.
They are interdependent.
Example: current & potential
inundation in Chelsea with
sea level rise
Future Coasts Program
$13.5m investment to prepare
preliminary assessments of the
physical vulnerability to climate
change
•Information - shaping planning and
management responses along the
Victorian coastline
•Guidelines - interpretation and
application of climate change science,
research and information to decision
makers
•Key components:
– Science and modeling
– Coastal policy and planning
– Coastal asset database
– Coordination & stakeholder
engagement
Our Water Our Future
Multi-prong approach:
• Increasing supply – increasing recycling, desalination
•Delivering water to where it is needed – expanding the grid
•Water conservation – Target 155, Irrigation renewal
“Securing our Natural Future”
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Building ecosystem resilience
Targeted investment in high value asset areas
Creating a network of biolinks
Planning for heat waves
•
To assist local councils in addressing the risks associated with
heatwaves at a community level
•
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A resource for
– local councils, but will help other organisations, such as:
– hospitals
– schools
– employers
– Primary Care Partnerships
– community and health services
– Divisions of General Practice
– police, ambulance and other emergency services
– other non-government and government agencies
Establishment of a heat alert system
Responding to Bushfire
•
2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission – final report expected
July 2010
•
Interim recommendations supported
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Living with Fire – Victoria’s Bushfire Strategy (June 2008)
The window is closing
The scale and interconnectedness of impacts may be
such that the window of opportunity for adaptation is
smaller than previously thought
We need to consider:
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What is our ability to adapt?
What is our willingness to adapt?
What is the likelihood of sustainable adaptation?
What is the role of government?
“Warming greater than 2°C would be very difficult for
contemporary societies and ecosystems to cope with”
The International Scientific Conference on Climate Change,
Copenhagen 2009
Thank you!
www.dse.vic.gov.au
www.climatechange.vic.gov.au