Transcript Managing for Change, Not just Persistence

Managing for Change
Not Just Persistence
Dr. Bruce Stein
Director, Climate Change Adaptation
National Wildlife Federation
June 5, 2013
The future ain’t what it used to be.
-- Yogi Berra
Unfortunately, the Future is Now!
“I skate to where the puck is going to
be, not where it has been.”
--- Wayne Gretsky
What Constitutes Good
Adaptation?
• Adaptation an emerging field
• Still poor understanding of what climate
adaptation means
• Most guidance still at very high level;
little operational advice
• Danger of existing work simply relabeled as adaptation
• Strong interest in understanding what
truly constitutes climate adaptation
and how it can be operationalized
Climate-Smart Conservation
• NWF-led expert workgroup
developing criteria and
guidance for “climate-smart”
conservation
• Follows on successful guidance
publication and training on
vulnerability assessment
• Products will include published
guide and training course
through FWS National
Conservation Training Center
Iron Chef
Adaptation Edition
What’s in Your Basket?
The Secret Sauce for
Successful Adaptation
Intentionality
Link Actions to Climate Impacts
• Show your work!
• Climate lens
important even if
you continue doing
the same thing
• Address short-term
threats in a longerterm context
Managing for Change
Not Just Persistence
Historical Range of Variability
Global Average January Temperatures.
Source: NOAA 2009
Stationarity is Dead!
Anticipating Change Along the
Delaware Coast
Breached levees and inundated coastal impoundments,
Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge
Creating new impoundments inland
and upland of existing ponds.
Delaware Dept of Fish and Wildlife
Reconsider Conservation Goals
Not Just Strategies
• Goals are the why; strategies the
how
• Many current goals will no longer
be feasible
• Need is for “climate-informed
conservation goals”
– Not just “climate-change goals”
– Not just changing strategies to meet current
goals
Aligning Climate-Informed
Goals and Strategies
Stage 1
Business
as Usual
Stage 2
•Traditional
goals
•Traditional
strategies
•Traditional
goals
Climate
Retrofit
•Revised
strategies*
Stage 3
•Revised
Climate- goals*
Smart
from the •Revised
Start
strategies*
* Review and revised as needed, based on climate change assessments.
Integrate with Existing Work
Not Just Stand-Alone Adaptation Plans
Climate-Smart Conservation Cycle
Understanding Climate
Change Vulnerability
• Understanding vulnerability is key
to designing effective adaptation
– What ‘s vulnerable and why
• Components of vulnerability
– Sensitivity
– Exposure
– Adaptive Capacity
Using Vulnerability to Inform
Management Options
Source: Dawson et al. 2011
Evaluating Possible Actions
Key Characteristics of Climate Smart Conservation
• Actions linked to
climate impacts
• Forward looking goals
• Broader landscape
context
• Robust in an uncertain
future
• Agile and informed
management
• Minimizes carbon
footprint
• Climate influence on
project success
• Safeguards people and
wildlife
• Avoids maladaptation
The “New” Success in Conservation?
“the capacity for self-renewal”
-- Aldo Leopold
Summing Up
• Act with intentionality
• Manage for change,
not just persistence
• Reconsider goals, not
just strategies
• Integrate adaptation
into existing work