Transcript Topic 1: What is happening? - Department of Agricultural Economics

Climate Change Introduction
Bruce A. McCarl
Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics
Texas A&M University [email protected]
http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/
Energy
Climate Change Mitigation
Climate Change Adaptation
Climate Change Effects
Reading Assignment
IPCC ar5 overall Synthesis report pages 2-12 (covers observations, causes and
projections)
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf
IPCC WGII ar5 SPM pages 4-8 (identifies likelihood wording)
https://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WG2AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf
IPCC WGII ar5 pages 662-672 (covers energy effects)
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap10_FINAL.pdf
IPCC WGIII ar5 SPM pages 4-9 (discusses mitigation and emissions sources)
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers.pdf
IPCC WGII ar4 chapter 18 pages 748-750 (discusses adaptation and mitigation)
http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/AR4/website/18.pdf
IPCC SREX SPM pages 4-9 (discusses extremes)
http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/report/
Basic Resources
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2013 and 2014
Four reports , secience basis, effects/adaptation, mitigation and synthesis
All are accessed through http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/
Third US National assessment - 2014 http://www.globalchange.gov/nca3-downloads-materials
National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program , Climate Change
Impacts on the United States:The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change Overview:
2000 http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overview.htm
U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Assessment reports
http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap-summary.php
US National Academy of Science reports on effects, adaptation, mitigation and communication all at
http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/sample-page/panel-reports/americas-climate-choices-finalreport/
Other IPCC reports
Special reports ( extremes, renewable energy, CCS,….)
https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml#2
Technical reports (water, biodiversity …)
https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_technical_papers.shtml
What is Climate Change About?
Climate change refers to any change in climate over time,
whether due to natural variability or as a result of human
activity.
This usage differs from that in the Framework Convention
on Climate Change, where climate change refers to a
change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to
human activity that alters the composition of the global
atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periods.
Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Third Assessment Report – Synthesis Report, http://www.ipcc.ch/.
Temperature history
0.94 2016
0.87 2015
• The 2016 January–November global temperature was the highest on record at
0.94°C (1.69°F) above 20th century average- exceeded 2015 by 0.07°C -0.13°F)
• 2015 was 39th consecutive year and 2016 will be the 40th that global
temperature was above historic average.
• Average global sea surface temperature was highest in 137-year record, at
0.76°C (1.37°F) above average, surpassing record set in 201.
• 16 of the 17 warmest years in 136-year record occurred in 21st century.
• 1998 is the other one.
From NOAA State of the Climate https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/
Temperature Anomalies
The following table lists the global combined land and ocean annually-averaged
temperature rank and anomaly above 20th century mean through 2015 for each of
the 15 warmest years on record.
RANK IN 1880–2015
YEAR
ANOMALY °C
ANOMALY °F
1
2
3
4
5
6 (tie)
6 (tie)
8
9 (tie)
9 (tie)
9 (tie)
12
13 (tie)
13 (tie)
15 (tie)
15 (tie)
2015
2014
2010
2013
2005
1998
2009
2012
2003
2006
2007
2002
2004
2011
2001
2008
0.90
0.74
0.70
0.66
0.65
0.63
0.63
0.62
0.61
0.61
0.61
0.60
0.57
0.57
0.54
0.54
1.62
1.33
1.26
1.19
1.17
1.13
1.13
1.12
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.08
1.03
1.03
0.97
0.97
Including 2015, 14 of the 15 years since 2001 among the 15 warmest since 1880.
Only one year during 20th century—1998—was in top 15.
Year 2015 was 39th consecutive year with global temperatures above 20th century average.
2016 will be warmer still
NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis annual 2013 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/13/.
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now – Land
Figure TS.20. (Top) Records of
Northern Hemisphere temperature
variation during the last 1300 years
with 12 reconstructions using multiple
climate proxy records shown in colour
and instrumental records shown in
black. (Middle and Bottom) Locations
of temperature-sensitive proxy records
with data back to AD 1000 and AD
1500 (tree rings: brown triangles;
boreholes: black circles; ice core/ice
boreholes: blue stars; other records
including low-resolution records:
purple squares). Data sources are given
in Table 6.1, Figure 6.10 and are
discussed in Chapter 6. {Figures 6.10
and 6.11}
Figure TS.20
Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WGI
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/
What is Climate Change About?
Pace is increasing
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Figures/AR4WG1_Ch03-Figs_2007-10-23.ppt#299,43,FAQ 3.1, Figure 1
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now – Temperature since 1901
From NOAA state of the climate
Observed Changes in Precipitation
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now – Potential Precipitation
Rainfall is increasing
(ocean evaporation)
Source IPCC WGI 2013
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/global-prcp-anom/201401201412.gif
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now -- Precipitation
R95 is rain from top 5% wettest days
CCD is frequency of max number of consecutive dry days
SDII is average daily precipitation intensity
HY-INT reflects change in length of drought or extreme precip events
Rainfall has become more concentrated and Texas again has such areas
AR5 WGI chapter 2 figure 2.33
Observed Changes in Oceans, Snow
and other items
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now -- Ocean
Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report WGI - SPM
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now – Glaciers
Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including the Alps,
Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa.
Aug 2013.
Water supply source, Boulder CO, Arapaho Glacier, Colorado.
http://nsidc.org/rocs/adopt-a-glacier/arapaho.html
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now – Glaciers
Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including the Alps,
Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa.
http://maps.grida.no/go/graph
ic/retreat-of-seven-andeanglaciers
Ice on Land – Antarctica and Greenland
Data from satellites show that
Mass is being lost by the
Antarctica and Greenland
land ice sheets
.
Antarctica has been losing
about 134 gigatonnes of ice per
year since 2002
Antarctica
Greenland
Greenland has been losing an
about 287 gigatonnes per year.
Contributes to sea level rise
and altered Thermohaline
Circulation (Gulf Stream)
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/land-ice/
Effects - Permafrost
B. Bolton and V. Romanovsky, Permafrost, Feb 2016, University of Alaska Fairbanks
Damages infrastructure by changing characteristics of surface
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now – Ocean Temperature
Figure TS.16
Ocean also shows temperature increase
Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WGI
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/
Artic Sea Ice
• Satellite data have confirmed that the amount of
floating Arctic sea ice is much less than it used to be.
• September Arctic sea ice is declining 13.4 percent per
decade, relative to the 1981- 2010 average. Graphs
show average September Arctic sea ice derived from
satellite observations.
• The 2012 sea ice is lowest in the satellite record.
1979 minimum
2012 minimum
2015 minimum
Soon a reliable Northwest Passage from Europe to Asia
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/
Ocean Acidification
Ocean absorbing more Co2 lowering PH – mollusks
Not climate change but another externality
IPCC WGI AR5 Summary for Policy Makers
Extremes
Climate Change and Extremes
http://www.
climatescien
ce.gov/Libra
ry/sap/sap33/finalreport/defau
lt.htm
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
Climate Change and Extremes
Item
Decrease in cool days and nights globally
increase in the number of warm days and nights
warming trend in daily temperature extremes in
much of Asia Africa and South America generally
low to medium
length or number of warm spells, including heat
waves, has increased since middle of the 20th century
increases in the number of heavy precipitation events
increases in tropical cyclone
Increasing trends in tornadoes and hail
since the 1950s some regions of the world have
experienced a trend to more intense and longer
droughts, in particular in southern Europe and West
Africa (Not north America)
Flood frequency increase
increase in extreme coastal high water
Confidence
Very likely
Very likely
Medium to low confidence
Medium confidence
Likely
Low confidence
Low confidence
medium confidence
Limited data, low confidence
Likely
The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (forthcoming soon) http://ipccwg2.gov/SREX/ and http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/IPCC_SREX_slide_deck.pdf
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now -- Drought
Global Drought Hazard Frequency and Distribution, v1 (1980 – 2000)
Doubled frequency
http://sedac.ciesin.col
umbia.edu/data/set/n
dh-drought-hazardfrequencydistribution
ELEANOR J. BURKE, SIMON J. BROWN, AND NIKOLAOS CHRISTIDIS ,
Modeling the Recent Evolution of Global Drought and Projections for the
Twenty-First Century with the Hadley Centre Climate Model
Index of Extremes
From
NOAA
state of
the
climate
•
•
•
•
•
•
Maximum temperatures much below normal and much above normal.
Minimum temperatures much below normal and much above normal.
Land in severe drought - lowest 10th % PDSI and severe moist. surplus highest 10th %
Land with greater than normal share of precip from highest 10th % 1-day events.
Land with a much > than normal days with precip and much > of days without.
Landfalling tropical storm and hurricane wind velocities.
Regions of the World with Increased Likelihood of Experiencing Tornadoes
From NOAA state of the climate
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now -- Disasters
Disasters increasing
Disasters expensive
From Special Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, Managing the Risks of
Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate
Change Adaptation
And Much More …
More Observations
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3)
4)
5)
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18)
Altered plant growth and nutrition
Greater plant water needs
Greater city water needs
Less/more fresh surface water
Less grass
Altered cattle and animal performance
Poleward migrations in activities
Diminished water quality
Sea level rise and Coastal flooding
CO2 and plant change
Fires and carbon release
Pest and disease spread
Altered albedo
Species migration and extinction
Water dilution lessening with less flows
Change in cooling and heating
Infrastructure at coast and permafrost
Income and food security and poverty
Many, many
other things
going on
Why is this happening
Why are we seeing climate change?
IPCC (1995) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible
human influence on global climate.”
IPCC (2001) “Most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely
(>66%) to be attributable to human activities.”
IPCC (2007) ”Most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (>90%)
due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human
caused) greenhouse gas concentrations.”
IPCC (2013) It is extremely likely (95–100% probability) that
human activities caused more than half of the observed
increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to
2010.
Greenhouse effect
Some gases, like carbon dioxide (CO), trap heat in the atmosphere by absorbing
longwave radiation while letting the Sun's energy pass through. A greenhouse
allows in sunlight while keeping in heat. Since the gases act similarly in
atmosphere, we name them greenhouse gases.
Source : U.S. National Assessment/ http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/images/Greenhouse-s.jpg.
What is a Greenhouse Gas?
Six greenhouse gases (GHGs) are produced by
human activities: carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons,
perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride.
Emissions of these GHGs are usually measured in
terms of carbon dioxide equivalents on the basis
of global warming potential. An important natural
GHG is water vapor.
Gasses have different efficiencies in trapping
radiation hereafter called radiative forcing.
GWP and GHGs
GWP is used to make comparisons of relative contributions among GHGs
to global warming by comparing the ability of each gas to trap radiation in
the atmosphere over a chosen time horizon. IPCC uses CO2 as a reference
gas with a GWP of 1.
CO2 lifetime is complicated. For a pulse of about 1000 PgC, about half is
removed within a few decades, but the remaining fraction stays for much
longer. About 15 to 40% of the CO2 pulse is still in the atmosphere after
1000 years.
100 year GWP typically used to norm gasses
Source: Climate Change 2014: The Scientific Basis, Table 8.7
Why is this happening
GHG Concentration
Pre industrial
1985
2015
http://co2now.org/
- 275
- 345
- 400
Counting Non CO2
this almost hits 485
Degree of climate change - Why is this happening
CO2 and temperature linked but does not lead
http://www.whrc.org/resources/online_publications/warming_earth/scientific_evidence.htm
Radiation Being trapped
earth emission with today’s
atmosphere;
ground temperature adjusted to
balance the radiation (no clouds)
Satellite
observations
show
radiation
being
retained in
number of
bands along
with heat
content
co2
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/10/visualizing-the-
Global GHG Emissions By Source
Globally energy is big one – about 75%
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions
Global Energy Emissions Sources
Emissions/ener
gy supplied
Supply
efficiency
Income effect
Population
effect
Energy
consumption
efficiency
IPCC 2014 WGIII Figure 7.3. Energy supply sector GHG emissions by
Subsectors. Table shows average annual growth rates of emissions over
decades and the sharesPlus drivers POP = population, GDP = gross
domestic product, FEC = final energy consumption, TPES = total
primary energy supply
Electricity growth is big area
Income + population cause increases
Consumption efficiency decreases
Sources by region
Fastest Growth in developing countries (income growth)
Per capita highest in OECD and Former Soviet Union (EIT)
IPCC WG III AR5 chapter 5
Underlying Energy in US GHG Emissions
Energy is
big one
In 2014
in US
about
81%
https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-04/documents/us-ghg-inventory-2016-main-text.pdf
Emissions per unit Fossil Fuel
Emissions per Emissions per Weight
Carbon Dioxide
Unit in
Unit in
in LBs CO2
(CO2) Factors:
Unit Pounds CO2 Kilograms CO2 pounds per pound
Diesel
Gallon
22.4
10.16
7.11
3.15
Natural Gas
!000 Cubic
117.1
53.12
50
2.34
Ft
Gasoline
Gallon
19.6
8.89
6.3
3.11
Jet Fuel
Gallon
21.1
9.57
6.8
3.10
Aviation Gas
Gallon
18.4
8.35
6.01
3.06
Anthractie Coal
Short ton
5685
2579 2000
2.84
Bituminous Coal Short ton
4931
2237 2000
2.47
Subbituminous
Short ton
3716
1686 2000
1.86
Coal
Lignite Coal
Short ton
2792
1267 2000
1.40
Fossils yield co2 in proportion to carbon content
http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/gas-density-d_158.html
How much more could we emit
Atmosphere 800 PgC (2004)
Biomass
~500 PgC
N. Gas
Oil
~260 PgC ~270 PgC
Soils
~1,500 PgC
Coal
5,000 to 8,000 PgC
Unconventional Fossil Fuels
15,000 to 40,000 PgC
Source Jae Edmonds, Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland
We have a Large inventory of cheap fossil fuels in the ground
We have a lot of expensive facilities that use them
What is Projected
Yet more could happen
What could happen
What we have
seen so far
Figure 1: Global temperature change and uncertainty. From Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections
Reto Knutti & Jan Sedláček, Nature Climate Change 3, 369–373 (2013) doi:10.1038/nclimate1716,
Degree of climate change - RCPs
Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios
specify watts of climate forcing per square meter and
reflect concentrations and corresponding emissions, but
are not directly based on socio-economic storylines.
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Scenarios
that include time series of emissions and concentrations of
the full suite of greenhouse gases and aerosols and
chemically active gases, as well as land use/land cover.
The word representative signifies that each RCP provides
only one of many possible scenarios that would lead to the
specific radiative forcing characteristics.
Degree of climate change - RCPs
Four RCPs were used in AR5
RCP2.6 Radiative forcing (RF)
peaks at 3 Watts per square meter
by 2010-2020, declining
thereafter.
RCP4.5 RF is stabilized at 4.5
Wm–2 after 2100 with emissions
peak around 2040, then decline.
RCP6.0 RF stabilized at 6.0 Wm–
2 after 2100 with emissions
peaking around 2080, then
decline.
RCP8.5 RF reaches greater than
8.5 Wm–2 by 2100 with emissions
rising throughout the 21st century.
From WGI AR5
Box 1.1
Degree of climate change - RCPs
From WGI AR5
Box 1.1
Temperature projection
Warming
more at
poles,
depends
on
mitigation
IPCC AR5
WG I
Figure 12.11 | Multi-model ensemble average of surface air temperature. Hatching
indicates regions where the multi-model mean change is less than one standard
deviation of internal variability. Stippling indicates regions where the mean change is
greater than two standard deviations.
A few projected effects
Climate Change can be disruptive
Lots of effects
Source :2001 US National Assessment
Effects - Projections are for a drying region
Precipitation
Precipitation
varies with
northern
gains,
Runoff
subtropic
drying
Soil Moisture
Source IPCC 2013, WGI
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
Precipitation and Soil Moisture
Mean summer (JJA) PDSI
(drought index) and
standardized soil moisture
(SM-30cm and SM-2m) for
2050–2099 from 17 CMIP5
projections using RCP 8.5.
Summer moisture in Central
Plains and Southwest. Brown
line represents the variation
in dryness since year 1000;
The lower the line, the drier.
Colored lines represent what
climate models see ahead:
Much less water in some regions
Trend toward dryness not
Cook, B.I.
T.R. Ault,
J.E. Smerdon,
seen
in , the
previous
Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the
American Southwest and Central Plains. Science
millennium.
Advances, 12 Feb 2015
http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/articles/vi
Effects are Uncertain
Precipitation is uncertain
John Nielson –Gammon, TAMU
Projections are for altered river
flow
What you see is nonstationarity: the future is not like the
past
Less water in rivers in sub tropical regions
Milly P.C.D., Betancourt J., Falkenmark M., Hirsch R.M., Kudzewicz Z.W., Lettenmaier D.P., and Stouffer R.J. Climate
Change: Stationarity is Dead: Whither Water Management? Science 2008;319:573-74
Projections are for sea level rise
IPCC
2014
WGI
1 meter
is upper
limit on
range
WGI AR5 2013 Figure 13.11 | Projections of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise
relative to 1986–2005. The likely range is shown as a shaded band.
Only collapse of marine-based Antarctic ice sheet could cause GMSL
to rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century.
Ocean Acidification
For scenarios (RCP4.5, 6.0, and 8.5), ocean acidification poses substantial risks to
marine ecosystems, especially polar ecosystems and coral reefs. Highly calcified
mollusks, echinoderms, and corals are more sensitive than crustaceans (high
confidence) and fishes (low confidence). Simultaneous drivers, such as warming
and ocean acidification, can impact species and ecosystems.
Figure SPM.6 B)
Marine mollusk +
crustacean fisheries.
Locations of corals,
plus distribution of
ocean acidification
under RCP8.5. Bottom
compares sensitivity to
acidification across
mollusks, crustaceans,
and corals,.
Other Projections
• Very likely that heat waves will be more intense, more
frequent and longer lasting
• Precipitation generally increases but with general decreases
in the subtropics
• Precipitation intensity is projected to increase but there
would be longer periods between rainfall events.
• Tendency for drying of mid-continent during summer,
indicating a greater risk of droughts in those regions.
• Likely increase in hurricane peak wind intensities - an
increase in the numbers of the most intense.
• Fewer mid-latitude storms- poleward shift of storm tracks
• Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)
– Gulf Stream will slow down