Transcript Presentation - World Academy of Art and Science

Crash to Crash
Economy & Security
“800 years of Financial Follies”
•
•
•
•
Economy & Security: Crash
to Crash Long Cycles?
•
Continuum Economy &
Security: Crash no more?
•
Global New Deal: 0,1%
•
Schrödinger’s Cat
lobal New Deal:
0,1 %
Security
Superbubble
Nuclear & WMD
•
•
•
•
Schrödinger’s Cat
Legacy 300.000
Technological Revolution
New Arms Race
•
•
•
Schrödinger’s Cat: Social
Power?
QE vs. Qualitative Tension
Global Reconciliation:
Pause for Peace
Global
(A), B, C, D, I – Rogoff, Reinhart
•
Overinvestment
Great Recession
•
1983, 1962: Crash? Near
Global Catastrophy
•
Near Misses: Day After
E, F, G, H: 1890s-1910s & 1930s
Superbubble?
•
Great Recession Plus &
Superbubble & WMD?
Great Recession Plus
•
New Arms Race
•
E, F, G, H crises
Global New Deal: 0,1 %
•
Crash to Crash Security
•
•
•
•
Global New Deal: 0,1 %
•
•
•
•
Global Sources: 7
Stakeholders: 750
Enablers: 75.000
Empowered 7.500.000
500 years of war cycles
≈ 1890-1910s, ≈ 1930, + WMD
Existential, Planetary &
Imminent? Fix Pre-Crash
Pause for Peace
Global New Deal: 0,1 %
Challenge for us
•
Oppenheimer:WAAS 1961
•
Existential, Planetary &
Imminent
•
0,1 %= 7,5 million > 75 million
Crash to Crash
Economy & Security
Security
Superbubble
Crash to Crash
Economy & Security
Global New Deal:
0,1 %
Security
Superbubble
Crash to Crash
Economy & Security
Wikipedia
C.M.Reinhart & K.S.Rogoff: This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, 2009
Nuclear testing 1945 - 2016
IPFM
Wikipedia
IPFM
IPFM
IPFM
Hybrid & High-End warfare: nuclear threshold?
• Electronic & cyber warfare;
• pshychological warfare;
• sabotage;
• release of dangerous forces
• Directed energy, lasers, railguns,
• hypervelocity projectiles,
• new intelligence, surveillance, and
reconnaissance capabilities,
• military space capabilities,
• robots & drones
Wikipedia
Faith Depression: risk of collective emotional hijacking?
•Continued economic and distribution malfunctions?
•After the economic bubble the collective psyche bubble to burst?
o frustration, fear and anger
o impacting collective unconscience and conscience
o preeminence of collective raw emotions
•risk of ideological extremism and societal polarization
•Collective emotional hijacking by ”savior” thought leaders: a historical
déjà vu?
o populism
o antagonization
o trivialization of wars
•XXI century ”emperors” a push of a finger away from weapons and
technologies of mass destruction
Year 1: 100 X
SDGs
Climate Change
Academia
Business
Education
Governments &
IGOs
Media
NGOs
Religion & Faith
750
Pause for Peace
Year 2: 100 X
SDGs
Climate Change
Academia
Business
Education
Governments &
IGOs
Media
NGOs
Religion & Faith
75.000
Pause for Peace
Year 3: 10 X
SDGs
Climate Change
Academia
Business
Education
Governments &
IGOs
Media
NGOs
Religion & Faith
750.000
Pause for Peace
Year 4: 10 X
SDGs
Climate Change
Academia
Business
Education
Governments &
IGOs
Media
NGOs
Religion & Faith
7.500.000
Pause for Peace
Year 4: 10 X
SDGs
Climate Change
Academia
Business
Education
Governments &
IGOs
Media
NGOs
Religion & Faith
0,1 %
Pause for Peace
Crash to Crash
Economy & Security
“800 years of Financial Follies”
•
•
•
•
Economy & Security: Crash
to Crash Long Cycles?
•
Continuum Economy &
Security: Crash no more?
•
Global New Deal: 0,1%
•
Schrödinger’s Cat
lobal New Deal:
0,1 %
Security
Superbubble
Nuclear & WMD
•
•
•
•
Schrödinger’s Cat
Legacy 300.000
Technological Revolution
New Arms Race
•
•
•
Schrödinger’s Cat: Social
Power?
QE vs. Qualitative Tension
Global Reconciliation:
Pause for Peace
Global
(A), B, C, D, I – Rogoff, Reinhart
•
Overinvestment
Great Recession
•
1983, 1962: Crash? Near
Global Catastrophy
•
Near Misses: Day After
E, F, G, H: 1890s-1910s & 1930s
Superbubble?
•
Great Recession Plus &
Superbubble & WMD?
Great Recession Plus
•
New Arms Race
•
E, F, G, H crises
Global New Deal: 0,1 %
•
Crash to Crash Security
•
•
•
•
Global New Deal: 0,1 %
•
•
•
•
Global Sources: 7
Stakeholders: 750
Enablers: 75.000
Empowered 7.500.000
500 years of war cycles
≈ 1890-1910s, ≈ 1930, + WMD
Existential, Planetary &
Imminent? Fix Pre-Crash
Pause for Peace
Global New Deal: 0,1 %
Challenge for us
•
Oppenheimer:WAAS 1961
•
Existential, Planetary &
Imminent
•
0,1 %= 7,5 million > 75 million
1934
The Via Panisperna boys in the courtyard of Rome University's Physics Institute in Via Panisperna:
Oscar D’Agostino, Emilio Segrè, Edoardo Amaldi, Franco Rasetti and Enrico Fermi (Ettore Majorana not on the photo)
Wikipedia
1927
Wikipedia
1911
Wikipedia
REGIMES &
REGULATIONS
WEAPONS & TECHNOLOGIES
ENVIRONMENT
”BIG PICTURE”
ENVIRONMENT
CAT ALIVE
CAT DEAD
Adequate
Suboptimal
Managed
Out of control
Muddle through
Tension, arms races and
major wars
Déjà vu? The pen-ultimate ”market
correction”?
•antagonize,
•create tension and
•„arm the nation”
•”Qualitative Tension” replacing QE
Ultimate ”market correction”: major power wars
(again...)?
•Does not work in age of WTMD!!!
•This time is different: sending humanity back to the
Middle Ages?
Concerned scientists no more?
• Scientific rigor puts bonus on mainstream cautiousness
• Political correctness dictates no hyping and no alarmism ?
• Evidence-based science vs. policy-based evidence?
• Industry interests define narrative?
o No risk-shadow or no image-shadow should fall on
industry
o Regulation fatigue: overall pushback on all type of risks
• Scientific community sleep-walking?
• Scientists emotionally hijacked and drifting with the rest of
their society?
• Back to the 1950? Scientists eventually speak out?
• Or, back to the 1930s or 1900? Scientific great divide?
o Joining national causes
o some justified, others wrong
o some of self-preservation others of conquest and
annihilation?
”Big picture” environment: old drivers – more relevant than
ever
•Terrorism & security
•Irrational state behaviour?
•Geopolitical tectonic shifts
Mindustrial Revolution
•A new age
•advances in computer and related sciences and
technologies, machine learning, data mining, networking,
robotics, cybernetics, enhanced human intelligence and
artificial general intelligence
•reaching critical mass
•Unseen opportunities and new productivity paradigm
•new complexities
o enhanced tensions within society: old and new
divisions
o safety, security and non-proliferation implications of
new tensions
Parallel worlds
• Are we living at the same time in both,
o 1930s and
o 2030s?
• Superpositioned realities?
Are there viable tools to keep Schrödinger’s cat (“Big
picture” security environment) alive?
•Invisible hand of market: self-correction historically had
not worked at times
o 1900s
o 1930s
o 1900s and 1930s exit strategies: find the culprits
outside of the economy (and the country) escaping
into forging tension and massive armament
programmes
•Quantitative Easing (QE) exhausting its potential? Any
other viable financial or economic tool?
Faith Depression: risk of collective emotional hijacking?
•Continued economic and distribution malfunctions?
•After the economic bubble the collective psyche bubble to burst?
o frustration, fear and anger
o impacting collective unconscience and conscience
o preeminence of collective raw emotions
•risk of ideological extremism and societal polarization
•Collective emotional hijacking by ”savior” thought leaders: a historical
déjà vu?
o populism
o antagonization
o trivialization of wars
•XXI century ”emperors” a push of a finger away from weapons and
technologies of mass destruction