Transcript Anond Snidvongs

Community Development under Ever
Changing Climate Regime:
Lessons Learnt from Southeast Asia Mainland
Countries
Anond Snidvongs
Southeast Asia START Regional Center (SEA START RC)
c/o Chulalongkorn University and National Research Council,
Bangkok, Thailand
Outline
• Local and global threats
• Lessons learnt from Cambodia, Thailand and
Vietnam
• Knowledge synthesis process
• Application of benefit/cost analysis
Century
100
Climate Cycle
Decade
ENSO
10
Time (y)
Weather Events Climate
Problems of Scales between Events and
Actions
1
Months/season
0.1
Years
Days/weeks
0.01
1
10
100
1000
Space (ha)
10000
100000
1000000
Pressing Local Issues in Coastal Zone
• Economic: More service-based economy
• Social: Globalization in terms of livelihood, social
cohesion and structure, less harmony with local
environment (and climate)
• Environment, ecosystem and natural resource:
Generally deteriorate
• Coastal inundation:
– Short term causes (storm surge, monsoon driven coastal
flooding, inland floods, tsunami)
– Long term causes (coastal erosion, land subsidence, sea
level rise)
Regional/Catchment Scale Issues
• Monsoon and typhoon variability
• Geology and tectonic
• Mega project developments and urban centers
draw in resources (including human)
• Land use and agriculture policies: Food and
energy crops
• Climate and upstream hydrologic changes
Trend of typhoon-class storm in South Vietnam
(Khanh Hua, Ninh Thuan, Binh Thuan, Ba Ria-Vung Tao, Ben Tre,
Tra Vinh, and Minh Hai (Ca Mau)
5-year sums
Natural cycle
Trends of Cyclonic Storms in the
Central Gulf of Thailand
6
Typhoon
Tropical Storm
Tropical Depression
5
4
3
2
1
0
19531957
19581962
19631967
19681972
19731977
19781982
19831987
19881992
19931997
19982002
20032007
20082012
20132017
20182022
20232027
20282032
20332037
Vertical Displacement of Thailand
Coastline
CGPS data from Survey
Engineering Department,
Chulalongkorn University
Land subsidence (sediment layer depression
only) around Bangkok (1986-2007)
Threats from Global Agenda
• GHG driven climate change and sea level rise
(mean and extreme frequencies)
• S&T that serve ‘city’ livelihoods, capital cost
for technologies (intellectual property)
GHG Driven Climate Change
PRECIS RCM Output: Days with T > 35 oC
SRES A2
SRES B2
GHG Driven Climate Change
PRECIS RCM Output: Change in Rain Days
SRES A2
SRES B2
GHG Driven Mean Sea Level Rise
SRES A2 (High Emission) from DIVA
Why can’t problem be solved:
Lessons learnt from past and present
1. Governments (usually dominate): Concern on where to get
money, spend least and get visible (politically impact) quickly
2. Communities and civic societies: Lose faith and trust with
centralized government (and its data and science), more inward
focused, emotional, ‘idolization’
3. Entrepreneurs and developers: Protect investments, want most
value per dollar invested, uncertainty about future business
environment lead to short-term returns
4. Scientists: Get involve and personal, does not understand roles,
take side and carried away, sectoral and discipline oriented,
fragmented and not holistic, not sufficiently funded, make too big
research problems for limited funding, inability to communicate
uncertainty and risks
Knowledge Synthesis through
Participation
• Proactive/preventive scenario-based approach
to avoid future conflicts of developments
• To bridge current gaps and adjust
mentality/attitude among stakeholders
• Create sense of common belonging and
togetherness
• Appropriate communication approaches
Some Success Factors for Knowledge
Synthesis
• Fully participate to ensure sense of owbership
and belonging
• Repetitive and patient
• Logical foresighting but with imagination
• Use maps and GIS as working platforms
• Not aim for agreement but allow for alternate
options for development and how can they be
harmonized with future environment and among
one another
Roles of Scientists/Academia
• Not to become another part in the conflict
• Do not dominate but to provide scientific
rationales
• Encourage for diversity
• Innovative communications
• Knowledge management
Benefit/Cost Analysis as a
Communication Tool
Klong Prasong, Krabi,
Thailand
Inundation of coastal rice fields due
to combinations of strong monsoon
breaks, mean sea level rise and land
subsidence
Mean sea level rise (~22 cm/30y) +
Land subsidence (~27 cm/30y)
= Net sea level rise ~50cm/30y
Strong Monsoon Breaks Frequency
from PRECIS
u
v
Land
On shore
monsoon surge
In situ
Extreme
Sea Level (m)
Occurrence
Frequency
(per 30y)
Rice Field Area
below Sea
Level (Rai)
0.00
30
0
0.25
30
0
0.50
30
0
0.75
30
546
1.00
25
998
1.25
18
1,189
1.50
8
1,357
1.75
3
1,622
2.00
1
1,793
3 km dyke to 0.75 m
2.0
1.75
1.5
1.25
Saved for 5/30y
546 Rais
Rice
1.0
0.75
0.5
Mangrove
25/30 y
Total damage cost: 921 M Baht /30y
Dyke construction cost: 60 M Baht
Damage cost reduction: 82 M Baht /30y
5 km dyke to 1.5 m
2.0
1.75
1.5
1.25
Saved for 27/30y
1,357 Rais
Rice
1.0
0.75
0.5
Mangrove
3/30 y
Total damage cost: 151 M Baht /30y
Dyke construction cost: 100 M Baht
Damage cost reduction: 852 M Baht /30y
7 km dyke to 2.0 m
2.0
1.75
1.5
1.25
Saved for 30/30y
1,793 Rais
Rice
1.0
0.75
0.5
Mangrove
Total damage cost: 0 M Baht /30y
Dyke construction cost: 140 M Baht
Damage cost reduction: 1,003 M Baht /30y
Benefit:Cost of Dykes
1200
9
8
Optimum
~5 km at 1.5m
B:C ~8.5
Cost (MB)
800
Dyke Cost (MB)
7
6
Damage (MB/30y)
600
5
B/C
4
400
3
2
200
1
0
0
0
1
2
3
4
Dyke Lenght (km)
5
6
7
B:C Ratio
1000
Damage Compensation
Payment per rai per year for fields in intervals
Dyke
Dyke Cost
(km) (MB)
Total
Damage
Compens
ation
(MB/30y)
0.50.75m
0.751.0m
1.01.25m
1.25- 1.51.5m 1.75m
1.752.0m
0
0
1,003 30,000 25,000 18,000 8,000
3,000
1,000
3
60
921 25,000 25,000 18,000 8,000
3,000
1,000
4
80
711 18,000 18,000 18,000 8,000
3,000
1,000
4.5
90
355
8,000
8,000
8,000 8,000
3,000
1,000
5
100
151
3,000
3,000
3,000 3,000
3,000
1,000
6
120
54
1,000
1,000
1,000 1,000
1,000
1,000
7
140
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Option 1: Optimal Infrastructure
Cost
• Invest 100 M Baht to construct 5 km dike at 1.5
m above MSL
• Prepare 151 M for installed compensation (from
government or shared cost by farmers/public
sector) for damage over 30 y (about 5 M Baht
per year)
• Total adaptation cost 251 M Baht
• Budget Bureau will prefer this option
Option 2: Most Security
• Invest 140 M Baht to construct 7 km dyke at 2
m above MSL
• Rice field will be completely protected and no
compensation will be needed
• Total adaptation cost 140 M Baht
• Farmers and politicians will prefer this option
Retreat (Mixed Farming) Option
• Raise mud crabs in the lower area to provide
compensation to damaged rice in the upper
area
• Dig crab ponds down to -1 m below MSL
Crab ponds to 1.0 m above
MSL
2.0
Rice
1.75
1.5
998 Rais
1.25
1.0
0.75
Crab
0.5
Mangrove
Total rice damage cost: 172 M Baht /30y
Crab pond excavation cost: 278 M Baht
Crab profit: 2,396 M Baht /30y
Net profit: 2,224 M Baht /30y
Crab ponds to 1.5 m above
MSL
2.0
Rice
1.75
1.5
1,357 Rais
1.25
1.0
0.75
Crab
0.5
Mangrove
Total rice damage cost: 29 M Baht /30y
Crab pond excavation cost: 406 M Baht
Crab profit: 3,257 M Baht /30y
Net profit: 3,228 M Baht /30y
Crab ponds to 2.0 m above MSL
2.0
Rice
1.75
1.5
1,793 Rais
1.25
1.0
0.75
Crab
0.5
Mangrove
Total rice damage cost: 0 M Baht /30y
Crab pond excavation cost: 596 M Baht
Crab profit: 4,303 M Baht /30y
Net profit: 4,303 M Baht /30y
Benefit:Cost of Crab Ponds
5,000
Cost/Profit (M Baht /30y)
4,000
3,500
Optimum
~1.1 m
above MSL
B:C ~8.2
8
7.5
3,000
7
2,500
Soil Removal Cost (MB)
2,000
6.5
Net Profit (MB/30y)
1,500
6
B:C
1,000
5.5
500
0
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
Crab Upper Limit (m above MSL)
2.00
5
2.25
B : C Ratio
4,500
8.5
Option 3: Optimum Mixed
Farming
• By raising mud crabs in area below ~1.1 m (above
MSL) and grow rice above that contour line
• Cost to excavate land to make crab pond ~280 M
Baht
• Net profit from crabs will be ~2,500 M Baht /30y
of which ~150 M Baht will be used to compensate
rice farmers who loss their crops due to salt
intrusion
• B:C ~8.2 which is closed to dyke option but may
be more ecological friendly??
Climate Change Knowledge
Management Center, Thailand
• A national center under the National Scientific
and Technology Development Agency,
Ministry of Science and Technology
• Provide knowledge support for systems and
sectors to develop in harmony with future
climate and other constraints/opportunities
• Multi scale approach (information gathering,
dissemination, communication)
Thank You