Transcript The Science of Climate Change

Climate Change: Science
and Solutions
J.C. Moore PhD
Retired Physical Chemist
JCMooreonline.com
CCL Credit: Mark Shobe and Darrel Hart
Earth’s Energy Balance
CO2 and Climate
• Arrhenius (1897) – Halving CO2 will lead to an ice age, doubling it
will warm Earth by 4 to 7oC
• G.N. Plass (1956) - Doubling the amount of CO2 will raise Earth’s
temperature by 3 to 4 oC
• J.T. Kiehl (1997) - Under Clear Skies, CO2 accounts for 26% of the
Greenhouse Effect
• A. Lacis (2010) – CO2 accounts for about 25% of the Greenhouse
Effect, CO2 is the “Control Knob” for the Earth’s Temperature
• Water vapor cannot control Earth’s temperature as it precipitates
when the concentration gets too high
CO2 for Last 1000 Years
NASA Data
And 2015 was hotter yet.
Arctic Ice
Ice Volume Is More Important
Sea Level Rise
Ocean Acidification
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We emit 30 billion tons of CO2 annually
The oceans takes up about 40%
CO2 in water makes carbonic acid
Oceans have become >20% more acidic
It is harder for phytoplankton, coral, and
crustaceans to make shells
• Phytoplankton support ocean life as they
convert CO2 to O2
CO2 and Plants
• Plants require water, CO2, nitrogen,
phosphorous, potassium, sunlight, and trace
elements
• CO2 is seldom the limiting agent in plant growth
• Greenhouses add CO2 just to replace depleted
CO2
• Over-fertilizing, over-watering, or putting a
shade plant in bright sun will harm the plant
• More CO2 is not necessarily better in most
cases
Increasing CO2 and Plants
• Some plants will thrive – but not all
• Ancient plant have adapted to varying
levels of 180 ppm to 1000+ ppm
• Modern plants have adapted to ~ 280 ppm
• Wild plants will adapt faster - Kudzu,
Poison Ivy, Ragweed, Red Rice, Weeds
Agricultural Plants
• Wheat grown at higher CO2 levels produce more grains
but smaller grains - lower in nitrogen
• Wheat pasture is unaffected by higher CO2 levels if
sufficient nitrogen is available
• Otherwise, higher CO2 leads to lower nitrogen uptake
and poorer pasture
• Rice benefits from higher CO2 levels but produces less
at higher temperatures
• Rice production is declining in some parts of the world –
it is a staple for > 50% of world
• Higher temperatures and CO2 levels are not necessarily
better for plants and may be detrimental
Temperature and Plants
• Tomatoes will not set blossoms if night
temperatures are above 70 0F
• Fruit trees and other plants may blossom early –
harmed by later freezes
• Some fruit varieties require a number of days
below freezing to be productive
• Pests such as fleas, ticks, spider mites,
mosquitoes, squash bugs, pine borers… thrive
• Increase in pine borer populations have killed 30
billion trees
• Many diseases thrive at higher temperatures
Future Food Production
Weather
• “All weather events are affected by climate change
because the environment in which they occur is warmer
and moister than it used to be…. ” – Kevin Trenberth
• Global Warming may not be the “cause” of a weather
event, but it increases the probability that it will be more
severe
• Warmer temperatures increase both the rate of
evaporation and amount of moisture in the air.
• This has doubled the incidence of severe weather,
floods, droughts, and wildfires.
• The interiors of continents are becoming drier and the
coasts are experiencing more flooding
Munich Re Data
Scientific Consensus
• The American Chemical Society states: “Careful and
comprehensive scientific assessments have clearly
demonstrated that the Earth’s climate system is
changing rapidly in response to growing atmospheric
burdens of greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosol
particles. There is very little room for doubt that
observed climate trends are due to human activities.
The threats are serious and action is urgently
needed to mitigate the risks of climate change. “
• Over 97% of the active climate scientists agree
• All of the World’s major science societies have
adopted similar statements.
Second Opinion
Coal Use
Coal
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Coal is 65 to 95% carbon
Pollutants produced are mercury,
cadmium, arsenic, lead,
sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, CO2,
particulates, and radioactive isotopes of
radon.
Coal
• Impurities from coal combustion and the
coal ash end up in the air and water
• Toxic levels of mercury are now found in
fish, even where natural sources are not
available
• We are now emitting 150 times as much
CO2 as all the worlds volcanoes
• Cutting Coal Use Is Imperative
Natural Gas is not a long term solution.
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Heat of Combustion/Mole of CO2
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Coal (80%C)
Methane
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Methane produces about 2 1/2 times as much energy per mole of carbon
dioxide produced
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Methane burns much cleaner then coal
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Methane has a Global Warming Potential that is 80 times that of carbon
dioxide
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If over 4% of the methane is lost during production and transmission,
then there is no climate advantage of shifting to methane
314 kJ/mole
890 kJ/ mole
Actions
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Conservation
New Technology
IPCC – Switch to Renewables ASAP
Regulation
Cap and Trade
Carbon Tax
Carbon Fee and Dividend
New Technology
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CFL and LED Bulbs
Solar Energy Collectors
Solar Panels
Wind Turbines
Tankless Water Heaters
Electric Cars and Trucks (Even if charged
from a coal-fired power plant, they reduce
carbon emissions by half. )
Republican Environmentalists
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Teddy Roosevelt – Greatly expanded National Park System
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Dwight Eisenhower -set aside 9 million acres as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge - one of the
most pristine wilderness areas in the United States
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Richard Nixon - created the EPA - “Clean air, clean water, open spaces — these should once
again be the birthright of every American.” “The price of economic growth need not and will
not be deterioration in the quality of our lives and our surroundings.”
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Barry Goldwater, “Mr. Conservative”,-“While I am a great believer in the free enterprise
system and all that it entails, I am an even stronger believer in the right of our people to
live in a clean and pollution-free environment.”
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Ronald Reagan – Signed Montreal Protocol reducing CFC’s, Used cap-and- trade to reduce acid
rain blowing into Canada- at less cost than even the government predicted
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John McCain – Proposed a sound energy policy based on good stewardship, sound science, and
reasonableness
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Representative Chris Gibson (R-NY) -introduced H. Res. 424, a Republican Climate Resolution
to address mitigation of global warming.
How can we address climate change?
Darrel Hart, Mark Shobe
We lobby in support of a revenue neutral price on carbon, our
Carbon Fee and Dividend legislation.
We work to build political will through respectful interactions
with elected officials, civic groups and the public.
We support our claims with data from a study by Regional
Economic Models Inc.
• CCL’s legislative proposal would set an initial fee on
carbon at $15 per ton of CO2 at the source.
• The fee would increase by $10 each year until the CO2
emissions were reduced to 10% of the 1990 US levels.
• To protect US businesses and agriculture, adjustments
at the borders would ensure fairness. Biofuels and
livestock emissions are not subject to the fee.
• The carbon fees would be rebated 100% to American
households.
• Each adult would receive a dividend and each child half
a dividend up to a limit of two children per household.
There are reduced CO2 emissions with Carbon Fee and Dividend.
Blue - without a price on carbon
Yellow - with price on carbon
Here are the cumulative lives saved by avoiding emissions if
Carbon Fee and Dividend is passed.
Here is the annual additional GDP due to Carbon Fee and Dividend
These are the thousands of additional jobs created by Carbon Fee and
Dividend compared to doing nothing.
There are always a few naysayers.
Carbon Fee and Dividend makes sense.
> CO2 emissions decline 33% after 10 yrs, 52% after 20 yrs.
>Lives saved - 13,000 yearly, 227,000 in 20 years
>2.1 million more jobs after 10 yrs, 2.8 million after 20 yrs.
>Monthly dividend, family of 4, yr 1= $30, yr 10 = $300
>2/3 of families will break even or make money on CF&D
The National Climate Assessment
• states that “climate disruptions to agricultural production have
increased in the past 40 years and are projected to increase
over the next 25 years.” (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/).
• The USDA predicts in coming decades that droughts and floods—
made more frequent and damaging from climate change—will
reduce agricultural output.
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Fighting insects and weeds will become more difficult, and higher
temperatures will also make the productivity of crops and livestock
unpredictable.
• Impacts include changing weather patterns, increases in frequency
of extreme weather events, drought causing soil erosion due to loss
of vegetative cover, floods, pests, invasive species, weeds, longer
durations of triple-digit temperatures, insufficient rain or too much
rainfall when needed least, heavy precipitation, then dry spells.
• Agricultural field workers face increasing health risks due to heat
stress.
• seeks to partner with the AFB to develop
market-based policy/legislation to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions while benefiting
agriculture.
• creates opportunities for farmers to balance
climate disruptions with steady cash flow from
renewables such as windmills and solar gardens
• Seeks to reduce stress on agriculture from
global warming by reducing carbon emissions.
Lets clear up something
Of the methods government can use to reduce CO2 emissions, Carbon
Fee and Dividend is the nost desirable.
Carbon Fee and Dividend – involves everyone, protects the vulnerable,
is fair, works on every sector, cuts pollution fastest
Cap and Trade - subject to market manipulation & exemptions,
does not have a border adjustment, does not protect the public
from energy price increase. It works, but slowly.
Government Regulations - unpopular, subject to legal contests,
works on specific items.
Carbon Tax – taxes are not popular.
“It’s not a tax if the government doesn’t keep the money.” – George Shultz,
Former Secretary of State under President Reagan
You’re in good company.
National Chapter: https://citizensclimatelobby.org/carbon-feeand-dividend/
Wichita Chapter at: facebook.com/wichitaCCL
Join us!
Together we can build the political
will for a livable planet.