Transcript Angela - San Jose State University

Climate Change in the Bay Area
BAESI Workshop
Angela Hessler, Chevron Energy Technology Company
Ellen Metzger, San Jose State University
Chevron Headquarters
San Ramon, CA
September 15, 2012
8:30am
Introductions, paperwork, breakfast; Climate Literacy survey
9:00am
9:05
9:20
9:40
9:45
Earth is Warming Up: temperature data
Understanding the Greenhouse Effect
Earth’s Heat Balance and Bean Counting
Tipping the Balance
Temperature Drivers since 1750
10:15
Break
10:30
10:50
11:00
11:10
11:20
11:40
Earth’s Pulse / NASA website
Earth’s Patterns at Three Time Scales
Has Earth Been Thru This Before? PETM
How Did Earth Recover
Bay Area Changes we Expect
Begin Melting Ice Lab
11:50pm
Lunch
12:30
1:30
1:50
Ocean Currents Lab
Melting Ice and Sea Level Lab
Sea Level Rise in the Bay Area Lab
2:30
Break
2:45
3:15
3:20
Sea Level Rise in the Bay Area Lab
Carbon Management at Chevron
Adventures with the Green Ninja
4:20pm
Wrap up
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
1
What do we know:
Earth is Warming Up
AGT rise = 1.5°F since 1880
•
Adequate spatial coverage
(measurement stations) since 1880
– Today use 6300+ stations
•
Data from NASA’s Goddard Institute
for Space Studies (GISS)
– Agrees with trends from other
global temperature analyses
•
Anomaly = how much does annual
mean differ from a baseline value
– Here the average temperature
between 1951 – 1980 (14°C)
•
Warming seen at all latitudes
– Greatest change at northern
latitudes and over land
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
2
What concepts do we need to understand:
The Greenhouse
http://chuma.cas.usf.edu/~juster/S7/atmosphere.htm
Solar Radiation: “Sunlight” is the full frequency spectrum of electromagnetic energy emitted
from the Sun; mostly infrared (long - thermal), visible (medium), and ultraviolet (short) waves
Surface Radiation: Long-wave (infrared - thermal) energy emitted by Earth
Natural frequency (NF): Rate at which materials (i.e. their electrons) vibrate upon being set in
motion; long wavelength equals low frequency
Light Transmission: Waves pass through a material as light energy (light NF ≠ material NF)
Light Reflection: Waves re-emitted from a material as light energy (light NF ≠ material NF)
Light Absorption: : Waves are converted within a material to other energy form (i.e. thermal)
(light NF = material NF)
Example: CO2 absorbs light at frequencies of 4300 nanometers (4.3 x 10 -6 meters) and 15,300
nanometers (1.53 x 10-5 meters); greenhouse gases are ones that absorb and emit infrared light
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
3
Why does Earth have a ‘temperature’:
Earth’s Heat Balance
Evapo-transpiration
and convection
100 W m-2
Based on observations March 2000 to May 2004 (NASA/Sally Bensusen redrawn from Kiehl and Trenberth 1997);
BEAN COUNTING ACTIVITY
ONE BEAN = 10 Wm-2
1. Find “Incoming Solar Radiation” on the diagram. From your bag of beans, count out the correct
number of beans (rounded to the nearest “10”) and place on “Incoming Solar Radiation.”
2. Move these beans down to where there are two forks in the path.
3. Absorb (move) the correct number of beans into the atmosphere (right fork).
4. Reflect (move) the correct number of beans to the “Reflected Solar Radiation” position (left fork).
5. Move the remaining beans downward to be “Absorbed by Land and Water” at Earth’s surface.
6. Move the correct number of “Absorbed by Land and Water” beans back to the atmosphere via
“Evapo-transpiration and Convection”.
7. Find “Surface Radiation” on the diagram. From your bag of beans, count out the correct number of
beans and place on “Surface Radiation.”
8. Move the correct number of “Surface Radiation” beans all the way through the “Atmosphere
Window” and place on the “Outgoing Longwave Radiation” position.
9. Move the remaining “Surface Radiation” beans as longwave (infrared) radiation into the atmosphere.
10. Emit the correct number of beans from the atmosphere and place on the “Outgoing Longwave
Radiation” position. Don’t forget the beans you already placed in the atmosphere in Steps 3 and 6!
11. Back-radiate the correct number of beans as longwave (infrared) radiation from the atmosphere and
place on the “Absorbed by Land and Water” position.
12. Combine the beans now at the Surface. Count them. _____ How many Wm-2 is this? _____
13. Is the absorbed radiation in balance with the value for “Surface Radiation”? _______
14. Count the beans at both the “Reflected Solar Radiation” and “Outgoing Longwave Radiation”
positions. _____ Add the two numbers together. ______ How many Wm-2 is this? ________
15. Is the total outgoing radiation in balance with the Incoming Solar Radiation? ______
4
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
Why does Earth warm up:
Tipping the Balance
WHAAAA…….!!
BUT FUNDAMENTALLY:
1. Increase the amount of sunlight coming in.
POSITIVE FEEDBACK
LOOPS CAN AMPLIFY
INITIAL WARMING
2. Decrease the amount of sunlight reflecting
back out.
3. Increase the amount of surface radiation.
4. Increase the amount of radiation absorbed
by the atmosphere.
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
5
Why Does This Happen:
Temperature Drivers since 1750
RADIATIVE FORCING (RF) ACTIVITY
1. Select a “RF” card from your table.
2. Look around the classroom for the sign that matches the title of your card. Stand
by the sign and wait for the rest of your “RF Group” to join you.
4. As a group, prepare to briefly explain your specific RF component to the class.
5. In five minutes, we will come together to:
•
Learn about each RF component
•
Determine which RFs cool and which RFs warm
•
Compare group size (how powerful is your RF component?)
•
Calculate the NET ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
6
How Do We Know:
Earth’s Pulse
Global Surface Temperature
Carbon Dioxide Concentration
Arctic Sea Ice
Land Ice
Sea Level
http://climate.nasa.gov/
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
7
Where does this fit in the Big Picture:
Brooks, 2008 Nature
Veizer et al 1999
Hessler 2012 Nature Education
Earth’s Patterns at Three Time Scales
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
8
What can we learn from the past:
Has Earth Been Through This Before?
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
9
How did Earth recover:
Negative Feedback Loop
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
10
What can we expect:
Bay Area Changes
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
11
Lab #1 exercise:
Ocean Currents
•
DEMO: GETTING STARTED
•
STATION 1: SALINITY
•
STATION 2: TEMPERATURE
•
STATION 3: POLAR VERSUS TROPICAL WATER
•
STATION 4: DESIGN YOUR OWN OCEAN
•
DEMO: PUTTING IT TOGETHER
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
12
Lab #1 discussion:
Ocean Currents: Wind & Thermohaline Density
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
13
Lab #1 discussion:
Ocean Currents: Measuring Salinity
Ocean salinity is measured in parts per thousand (‰, “per mil”) or g/L.
35 ‰ salinity = 35 g salt / L water = 1.23 oz salt / L water
http://aquarius.nasa.gov/gallery-science.html
UCSC: Deep-diving Sea Lions!
Black contours = modern T
Color contours = Pliocene T
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
14
Lab #1 discussion:
Ocean Currents: How Much
is Needed
Ocean salinity is measured in parts per thousand (‰, “per mil”) or g/L.
35 ‰ salinity = 35 g salt / L water = 1.23 oz salt / L water
http://aquarius.nasa.gov/gallery-science.html
Black contours = modern T
Levitus S. (1998). NODC World Ocean Atlas 1998 data, report, 1998Color
:NOAA-CIRES
Clim.T
contours = Pliocene
Diag. Cent. Boulder, Colorado
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
15
Lab #1 discussion:
Ocean Currents – Bay Area
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
16
Lab #2 exercise:
Melting Ice and Sea Level
•
ACTIVITY: LAND ICE and SEA ICE
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
17
Lab #3 exercise:
Sea Level Rise in the Bay Area
•
TOPO MAP INTRO
•
MOUNTAIN VIEW QUAD
1. Highlight the 5’ contour. (The 2010 US NRC predicts a 6.6’ rise by 2100)
2. Which of the following features will be inundated by a 5’ sea level rise?
Ohlone School (South of Oregon and Hwy 101)
Palo Alto County Airport
Sewage Disposal near Charleston Slough
3. Highlight the 20’ contour. (The 2007 IPCC predicts a 20+’ rise over next centuries)
4. Which of the following features will be inundated by a 20’ sea level rise:
Runways at Moffett Field
Shoreline Ampitheater
Sunnyvale Municipal Golf Intersection of Maude Ave and Matilda Ave
Sunnyvale Baylands Park
Aqueduct at east edge of map near Lakehaven Dr.
5. Highlight the 40’ contour. Which increment of sea level rise affects a larger area, the
first (from 0’to 20’) or the second (from 20’ to 40’)?
•
YOUR ADDITIONAL MAP
1. Turn over your map. What is the name of your map?
2. What is its contour interval?
3. Choose a sea level rise increment (i.e. 5’, 10’, 20’…) and highlight its contour line.
4. List a few interesting features that would be inundated by that increment of rise.
•
YOUR NEIGHBOR’S MAP(S)
1. List the name(s) of your neighbor’s map(s).
2. List a couple of interesting observations they made about sea level rise on their map(s).
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
18
Lab #3 discussion:
Sea Level Rise in the Bay Area
•
DISCUSSION
•
KQED Quest video (13 minutes): “GOING UP: Sea Level Rise in San Francisco Bay”
•
Interactive Maps: Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the CA Coast (Pacific Institute)
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
19
Energy Company Perspective:
“Carbon Management” at Chevron
Position Statement: “At Chevron, we recognize and share the concerns of governments
and the public about climate change. The use of fossil fuels to meet the world’s
energy needs is a contributor to an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) — mainly
carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane — in the earth’s atmosphere. There is a
widespread view that this increase is leading to climate change, with adverse
effects on the environment.”
Seven principles for addressing climate change
–
Global Engagement
–
Energy Security
–
Maximize Conservation
–
Measured and Flexible Approach
–
Broad, Equitable Treatment
–
Enable Technology
–
Transparency
Four-fold action plan
–
Reducing emissions of GHGs and increasing
energy efficiency
–
Investing in research, development and
improved technology
–
Pursuing business opportunities in promising,
innovative energy technologies
–
Supporting flexible and economically sound
policies, and mechanisms that protect the
environment
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
20
Adventures with the
Green Ninja
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
21
Climate Change in the Bay Area
BAESI Workshop
Angela Hessler, Chevron Energy Technology Company
Ellen Metzger, San Jose State University
Thank you!
BAESI Climate Change in the Bay Area
September 15, 2012
22