Transcript What are the key population issues in Africa

Population Dynamics, Climate Change,
and Sustainable Development in Kenya
James Ciera and Nyokabi Ruth Musila
Study Report Launch and Consultative Seminar
Southern Sun Mayfair, Nairobi
22nd November, 2012
Study Objectives
• Regional study
• Case studies: Kenya and Malawi
• Objectives:
– Examine linkages between population dynamics climate
changes and and sustainable development in Kenya.
– Assess landscape for integration of population dynamics
and climate change at policy.
– Make policy and programme recommendations for
strengthening the linkages and integration.
Study Methods
• Analysis of demographic data.
• Desk review of literature and policy
documents.
• Indepth interviews with policy makers and
representatives of development partners,
and civil society organizations.
Key Messages
• The combined effects of population growth and climate
change are escalating food insecurity, depletion of natural.
resources, environmental degradation, and poverty levels in
Kenya.
• The government and other African government recognize
these are key development issues.
• However, the issues are not prioritize at resource allocation
level and they are mostly addressed in silos.
• In order for Kenya to develop sustainably, it should prioritize
and integrate programmes for addressing population change
and climate change challenges.
Projected Population for Kenya (2010-2100)
Total Fertility Rates
Low Fertility Variant
Medium Fertility Variant
High Fertility Variant
2020
3.4
3.9
4.3
2030
2.6
3.2
3.6
2040
2.1
2.7
3.2
2050
1.8
2.4
2.9
8
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
7
45
6.7
40
35
5.6
6
4.7
5
4.9
4.6
30
25
4
20
3
15
2
10
1
5
0
0
1989
1993
Total Fertility Rate
1998
2003
2008
Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (%)
Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (%)
Contraceptive uptake and fertility
trends in Kenya
The year in which Kenya reaches replacement level fertility
has a major impact on its ultimate population size.
More Kenyans will live in urban areas, presenting new
opportunities and challenges for sustainable
development
The number of people living in urban poverty is
increasing rapidly as Kenya becomes more urban,
creating new environmental challenges
Effects of Rapid Population Growth
• High child dependency ratios
• Poor health and wellbeing outcomes for mothers
and children
• Depletion of natural resources such as forests
• Fragmentation and overuse of agricultural land
• Limited resources to invest in human capital
development (education and health)
• Undermines poverty alleviation efforts
• …
Key Climate Change Effects in Kenya
• Unpredictable weather patterns
– Short rainy seasons and prolonged dry spells leading to
water scarcity and desertification
– Flooding and displacement of people
– Low and unstable hydro-electricity production
• Rising sea levels and changes in the intensity of ocean
currents.
• Declining flora and fauna, and declining rare natural
species.
SO, HOW DO POPULATION
GROWTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE
INTERACT TO AFFECT THE
WELLBEING OF PEOPLE AND THE
ENVIRONMENT?
As population grows and more areas become prone
to dry weather, there will be less viable agricultural
land per family in Kenya
Projected population densities in Kenya
Population, Climate Change, and
Agricultural Production
• About 20% of land in Kenya is suitable for agricultural
production.
• The country’s economy is driven by agriculture, which
contributes about 25% of GDP, 60% of the country’s
export earnings, and supports 75% of the population.
• Kenya’s predominantly rain-fed agricultural is highly
susceptible to droughts, erratic rainfall, etc.
– Most agricultural production focuses on maize (which
needs considerable and consistent water supply)
– Less than 4% of the total agricultural land is under
irrigation.
Population, Climate Change and
Deforestation
• Kenya is among countries with high rates of
deforestation in the world
– Between 1990 and 2010, Kenya lost 6 percent of its
forest cover at an annual rate of 0.3 percent.
• Key factors: over-dependency on fire wood and
charcoal for cooking (90% - rural households);
(80% - urban households), human settlements,
low deforestation, climate change.
• Deforestation compounds women’s workloads, as
they need to walk longer distances to fetch
firewood and water.
Rapid deforestation lead to reduced rainfall
limiting the country’s potential to support the
growing population
Source: http://www.commercialpressuresonland.org/
Population, Climate Change, and Water
Resources
• Kenya is among countries that have water scarcity and
falling food production.
• Key factors include recurring droughts, weak capacity for
water retention and storage, deforestation leading to
reduction in water catchment capacity, population
growth.
• The country also faces recurring flooding, which destroys
crops, roads and displaced many people
• Erratic rainfall and low water levels affects electricity
production, economic production, and attractiveness of
Kenya for foreign investment.
Population Dynamics and Vulnerability to
Climate Change
Source: http://my.opera.com/laulifeng/blog/
Summary
• Rapid population growth has adverse effects on the
environment and development in Kenya.
• Climate change has adverse effects on the environment
and economic development.
• The combined impact of these issues have multiplier
effects on the environment, food security and the overall
wellbeing of Kenyan.
• Given the evidence of strong linkages there is need to
address the dual challenges simultaneously.
HOW WELL ARE POPULATION
POLICIES AND PROGRAMMES IN
KENYA ADDRESSING THESE LINKED
CHALLENGES?
The study mapped out current policy
and practice, and identified
opportunities for optimising integrated
responses to population and climate
change challenges in Kenya
(1) Policy and programme analyses
(2) Key informant interviews
Population and Climate Change issues
are linked
• High level of awareness of key population and
climate change challenges in Kenya, and the need
to integrate the two issues at policy and
programme levels
• There is limited integration of population
dynamics and climate change issues at policy and
programme levels, with activities in each area of
focus designed, funded and implemented in silos
WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES THAT
HINDER INTEGRATION OF
POPULATION AND CLIMATE
CHANGE PROGRAMMES?
Kenya has demonstrated political will
to addressing climate change
• Climate Change Strategy
• East African Climate Change Action Plan
Kenya’s development blueprint recognises
population growth, urbanisation and
climate change
• The Second Medium Term
Plan (2013-2017)
acknowledges the need to
tackle climate change
• No guidance on
multisectoral integration
The National Climate Change Response
Strategy (2010) guides implementation
of activities
• The strategy is aligned with
Vision 2030 and provides a
framework for adaptation
and mitigation measures to
be integrated in government
planning, budgeting, and
development objectives.
• The strategy calls for a joint
action plan highlighting a
trans-sectoral role for
tackling climate change.
Kenya’s Climate Change Policy
Framework is currently under
development
• Kenya’s Climate Change
Action Plan for
implementation of the
NCCRS is also underway
http://www.bfasta.net/academics/curriculum
Climate Change is not harmonised across
environment sector policies
• All recognize the impact of rapid population
growth on environmental degradation
• They do not specifically indicate how they
would contribute to addressing population
issues
– Family planning is not addressed as a
multisectoral issue (NCPD and DRH)
Climate Change Policy is needed to guide
multisectoral development planning
• Climate Change is not harmonised across
development policies
– “Different ministries come up with the same
policies, and sometimes you find that they are
conflicting. Harmonization is key and that is why we
talk of merging. It is important to come up with one
policy.” [GoK Official]
Population policies are more explicit
than environment policies in linking the
two issues
• The 2012 Population
Policy refers to climate
change
• But there is weak
integration of
population in other
development sectors
Weak integration of sectoral
programmes
• No policy framework to coordinate programmes
• Weak coordination of climate change
programmes, as well as weak integration of
climate change within other sectors like
population
– “There is multiplicity of policies and little integration,
and integration has not been harmonized with
devolution.” [Donor Agency Official]
Weak coordination
• NCPD is a semi-autonomous government
institution, with a clear mandate on
population and development issues
• Various GoK entities are coordinating climate
change activities
– “We need to ensure that the secretariat is able to
really monitor and support issues on climate
change and guide the way forward.” [GoK official]
Multisectoral Coordination of Climate
Change Activities in Kenya
• Ministry of Environment and Mineral Resources
– Focal point for national environment matters
– Hosts the Climate Change Secretariat
• National Environment Management Authority (NEMA)
– Provides technical coordination via the Climate Change Unit
• The Prime Minister’s Office
– The Climate Change Coordination Unit manages the Inter-Ministerial
National Climate Change Steering Committee
• Climate Change Desk Officer in various ministries
• District Development Officers (decentralisation)
Inadequate Funding
• Allocation of resources to multisectoral
responses remains a major challenge
• Over-dependence on donors for funding of
climate change and population work
– “When budgeting for climate change you hardly
find money that the government has directly
prioritized for it.” [GoK Official]
Weak Technical Capacity
• Weak technical capacity in programme design,
implementation, evaluation, research,
knowledge translation and management
– “Population pressure introduces what we call
micro-climates... We need a better data network
for our observations, and a very good
communication and dissemination system to
create awareness in terms of what exactly people
are supposed to do to minimize some of the
impacts of climate change disasters.”
RECOMMENDATIONS
POLICY
RECOMMENDATIONS
PROGRAMME
RECOMMENDATIONS
RESOURCE ALLOCATION
RECOMMENDATIONS
TECHNICAL CAPACITY
RECOMMENDATIONS
• Incorporate population dynamics in all climate
change policies and strategies.
• Mainstream population issues within all
development sector policies (including
environment and climate change).
• Incorporate gender issues in climate change
policies and adaptation strategies.
POLICY
RECOMMENDATIONS
PROGRAMME
RECOMMENDATIONS
RESOURCE ALLOCATION
RECOMMENDATIONS
TECHNICAL CAPACITY
RECOMMENDATIONS
• Strengthen climate change coordination and
governance mechanisms.
• Enhance the design and implementation of
programmes that will help Kenyans to adapt to
climate change and thus improve food security,
and reduce poverty and deforestation.
• Prioritise meeting women and their partners
need for family planning.
POLICY
RECOMMENDATIONS
PROGRAMME
RECOMMENDATIONS
RESOURCE ALLOCATION
RECOMMENDATIONS
TECHNICAL CAPACITY
RECOMMENDATIONS
• Secure adequate resources to support the
joint implementation of effective programmes
to address population dynamics and climate
change.
• Enhance investments in social services to help
Kenya tap into a potential demographic
dividend
POLICY
RECOMMENDATIONS
PROGRAMME
RECOMMENDATIONS
RESOURCE ALLOCATION
RECOMMENDATIONS
TECHNICAL CAPACITY
RECOMMENDATIONS
• Enhance local technical capacity of
governments, and NGOs.
• Train local researchers and other experts in
multidisciplinary approaches, and encourage
networking among professionals working in
climate change, population dynamics, and
other development sectors.
Joint Investment in FP/RH and
Climate Change a “Triple Win”
Joint investment in family planning and climate change strategies can
yield the ‘triple win’ of the United Nations (U.N.) sustainable
development framework.
Reducing fertility rates and slowing population growth would help:
1. Reduce poverty by improving and expanding health,
schooling and economic opportunities
2. Protect and manage natural resources for economic
and social development
3. Reduce inequality and create greater opportunities
for all.
THANK YOU
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.afidep.org