Transcript Global Sea Level Rise Curves

Global Climate Change and
National Security
RADM Jon White
Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy
Director, Task Force Climate Change
31 January 2014
Climate Change
Arctic
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Our climate is changing … Our world
is changing … Are we?
Water
People
Behavior
It’s not just the “Weather Geeks” talking
ADM Sam Locklear,
Commander, U.S.
Pacific Command
Mar 2013
What is the biggest long-term security threat in the Pacific region: “Climate
change.” Navy Admiral Samuel J. Locklear III, in an interview at a Cambridge
hotel Friday after he met with scholars at Harvard and Tufts universities
“Significant upheaval related to the warming planet “is probably the most likely
thing that is going to happen . . . that will cripple the security environment,
probably more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk about.’’
“People are surprised sometimes,” he added, describing the reaction to his
assessment. “You have the real potential here in the not-too-distant future of
nations displaced by rising sea level. Certainly weather patterns are more severe
than they have been in the past.
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Navy Sea Level Rise Concerns
Challenges
Physical Impacts
 Inundation
 Wetlands
 Erosion patterns & rates
 Surface/ground water supplies
 Water tables
 Tidal flows & currents
 Storm & flood damage




Infrastructure
Mission capabilities
Training & testing lands
Transportation means/facilities
Opportunities
 Adaptation partnerships
 Recapitalization incentive
Directly impacts readiness, strategic access, & influence
The four P’s of Climate Change
Predict
Partner
Publicize
Prepare
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Global Sea Level Rise Curves
(IPCC 2001)
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Global Sea Level Rise Curves
(NOAA 2012)
Source: Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment, NOAA (2012)
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Global Sea Level Rise Curves
(IPCC 2013)
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What if all the ice melted?
National
Geographic 2013
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Instability and Conflict Risk?
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Arctic Concerns
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