Transcript PPT Asian Media Summit 2011_2pm

Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development
INECE
Climate Change Stories
Are Compelling Content
Durwood Zaelke
President, IGSD
Director, INECE
Climate Induced Extreme Weather Events
160
140
120
Drought
100
Extreme temperature
Flood
80
Mass movement wet
Storm
60
Total
40
Expon. (Total)
20
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
Source: Center for Research in the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)
International Disaster Database
•Instances of extreme weather events in East, South-East and
South Asian Countries 1950-2010
Wildfire Risk and Prevalence
(Satellite image showing wildfires around the world, NASA 2009)
•
•
Increased occurrence of wildfires is another probable outcome of climate change
(NASA, 2010)
Fire activity is worse in periods of drought. Studies on Asian wildfires show a
correlation between drought and higher CO2 emissions from wildfires (NASA,
2009)
Climate Change and Conflict
Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change 2007
•
•
Climate change is expected to increase exacerbating events such as floods, droughts, cyclones, desertification,
diseases, water scarcity and declining food production (Allouche, 2010; UNHCR 2009; German Advisory
Council on Global Change 2007)
Developing countries likely face a higher risk of political instability as a result of climate change effects (Smith &
Vivekananda, 2007)
Rivers Originating in
Hindu-Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan Glaciers
NEXT
Sea Level Rise
• Global sea level is
projected to rise by 0.91.6 m by 2100 and
Arctic ice loss will
make a substantial
contribution to this.
• This is more than two
and a half times higher
than the 2007
projection 0.15-0.6
meters by the IPCC.
Source: IPCC (2007); AMAP (2011)
Red dots are cities with over 1 million people, green dots are cities over 500 thousand – 1 million people, and yellow
dots are cities with 100-500 thousand people. Source: State of the World’s Cities 2008/2009 – Harmonious Cities
•
13 of 20 most populated cities in world are port cities
•
65% of Asians live in regions and port cities that will be affected by sea level rise.
•
$35 trillion in assets will be affected by 2070, with highest proportion in Asia.
BACK
Long Lifetime of CO2
•
Arctic and Other Snow & Ice Regions Are
Especially Vulnerable to Black Carbon Pollution
Without soot, rays reflected
BC is 50% of 1.9 C
warming in Arctic since
1890 (Shindell & Faluvagi
2009);
Cutting BC emissions
could reduce
temperatures in the
Arctic by 1.7˚C in the
next 15 years (Mark
Jacobson, 2010)
BC and its organic copollutants are
responsible for just
under half of the total
springtime melt in the
Himalayas (Flanner et al.
2009)
With soot, rays (and heat) absorbed
NASA, Black Soot and Snow: A Warmer Combination, 2004 11
Black Carbon
• Incomplete combustion
– Diesel engines (including ships etc.)
– Inefficient residential stoves
– Open biomass burning
– Power plants
The Federated States of Micronesia