Transcript Predictions of impact of climate change on goat dairy

Predictions of impact of climate change on goat dairy industry in
temperate areas
Nissim Silanikove
Institute of Animal Science, Agricultural research Organization (A.R.O.), the
Volcani Center, P.O. Box. 6, Bet Dagan 50250, Israel
“Greenhouse
effect”
Increasing greenhouse
gases trap more
heat
Effects on precipitation
THI in Germany
Climate change in Hungary
Computer models
Climate Change Impacts
Changing climatic conditions affect animal
agriculture in four primary ways:
1. Feed-grain production, availability,
and price
1. Pastures and forage crop production and
quality ?
2. Animal production, reproduction, health,
growth
3. Disease and pest distributions
7
Drought
“Crop Production Down in 2012 Due
to Drought, USDA Reports”
8
(Sources: NOAA, 2012; USDA NASS, 2013)
Food Prices
• Food prices will rise
due to:
• Production declines
• Prices of inputs
increase (such as,
petroleum-based
fertilizers and
pesticides)
• Food insecurity
increases with rising
food prices
()
Animal Growth & Reproduction
Hotter temperatures may reduce productivity •
of livestock and dairy animals
– Animals lose appetite, gain weight slower and
take longer to get to market
– Production decreases, including milk from dairy
cattle and eggs from poultry
– Mortality rate increases
and reproduction decreases, which
may resulting in smaller herds
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(Source: CCSP, 2008)
Disease and Pest Distributions
• Climate change affect:
– Frequency, intensity, or
distribution of animal
diseases and pests
– Livestock’s resistance to
infections and diseases
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(Source: Walthall, 2012)
Example of the
Interaction of
Temperature and
Humidity in
Determining Heat
Stress Potential in
Dairy Cattle
Conception rate of dairy cows in
Germany
long-term trends in Veterinary Investigation Diagnosis Analysis (VIDA) recorded diagnostic rates of disease in sheep and
cattle resulting from infections with helminth parasites. Trend lines drawn by exponential smoothing. Disease
incidence, in all classes, shows a highly significant increase (Spearman’s rho 0.450, P 0.005) apparently starting in the
late 1990s. Data sourced at VLA Weybridge
.
Best Management
Practices
Adapt to
climate
change
ADAPTATION & BEST
MANAGEMENT PRACTICES
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Other solutions and adaptations
Changing Demand
Switch from beef & dairy
to other proteins, veggies

(Weber & Matthews 2008, FAO 2003)
Travel-eat-sleep.com
www.cloudyday.org
news.bbc.co.
Adaptation
• Adaptation is not new to agriculture
• Adaptation practices to heat stress will vary by
location due to climatic, soil and topographic
variability
• Strategies relating to livestock production
may include:
– Mitigate heat effects on livestock
– Switch to species and breed that are more
adapted to heat stress – potential role of goats
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Schematic representation of different temperature zones in relation to
thermal stress. Adapted from Silanikove (2000)
Heat stress risk classes according to the Livestock Weather Safety Index
Dairy goats
Dairy cows
THI<80
THI<74
80≤THI<85
74≤THI<79
85≤THI<90
79≤THI<84
THI≥90
THI≥84
heat stress class
Normal :NO
EFFECT ON MILK
YIELD
Alert: MODEST
EFFECT ON MILK
YIELD
Danger; SEVER
effect to milk yield
Emergency: Can
result in death
Monitoring Production and
reproduction
- Effetto climatico sulle produzioni
di capre “Camosciate delle Alpi” allevate in
Calabria
- Continue of monitoring production and
reproduction within the year along time is
needed to assess potential impact of climatic
changes in temperate zones
Important of water – Important of
adaptation
gestation under environmental heat stress (HS). Average milk production was significantly different between treatments from wk
4 (SEM = 215; P < 0.004). Error bars represent the SE
Volume 96, Issue 1, January 2013, Pages 189–197
.
Reduction of heat stress risk by three different types of
polyethylene shade cloth as predicted (based on predictions of
respiration rate) by Eigenberg et al. (2010).
Shade effects on feeding behavior, feed intake, and daily gain of weight in female goat kids
L. Alvarez, ,
N. Guevara,
M. Reyes,
A. Sánchez,
F. Galindo
Journal of Veterinary Behavior: Clinical Applications and Research
Volume 8, Issue 6, November–December 2013, Pages 466–470
We conclude that the use of shade at the feeders increases the visits of goats to this area and the time and net consumption of food and
reduces food waste. These changes are directly related to high ambient temperature in different areas of the pen. The use of shade over the
feeders for a period of 60 days did not alter the DWG of young goats. These results generate suggestions to study the effect of shade during
longer periods of time.
Traits
Group EG
Group CG
Significance
Feed
consumption
(g/day)
976.11 ± 0.08 a
799.12 ± 0.12 b
0.011
Water
consumption
(g/day)
21.13 ± 0.07 a
19.62 ± 0.05 b
0.021
Milk yields
(kg/day)
1097.34 ± 0.19 a
865.48 ± 0.36 b
0.010
alleviation of climatic stress of dairy goats in Mediterranean climate
Nazan Darcan, , ,
Okan Güney
Small Ruminant Research
Volume 74, Issues 1–3, January 2008, Pages 212–215
Traits
Rectal Temperature
(°C)
Respiration rate
(min−1)
Hours
EG
CG
Significance
07.00–06.00
0.03 ± 38.12
0.03 ± 38.81
0.090
13.00–12.00
38.74 ± 0.03 b
39.71 ± 0.03 a
0.050
19.00–18.00
38.16 ± 0.03 b
39.88 ± 0.04 a
0.040
01.00–24.00
38.15 ± 0.04 b
39.68 ± 0.05 a
0.045
07.00–06.00
44.33 ± 1.28 b
48.24 ± 1.36 a
0.050
13.00–12.00
47.32 ± 1.48 b
75.56 ± 1.83 a
0.023
19.00–18.00
62.04 ± 2.028 b
73.81 ± 1.94 a
0.048
01.00–24.00
50.34 ± 1.72 b
67.20 ± 1.77 a
0.035
Dairy goats Vs. Dairy cows
Major Advantages:
-Superior resilience to heat stress
-Milk yield and milk composition is less affected by heat
stress
-Superior digestive capacity, better ability to use forages
that cannot be use a food for humans.
-Superior resilience to diseases, particularly helminth
parasites
Major drawback
-smaller production unit: between 5 to 6 goats will be
needed to replace one cow. Would it be economical?
The future of the dairy industry in
temperate zones face of climatic
changes: Role of dairy goats
-A shrink in dairy cows industry is expected. The
decline will be directly proportional to the
worsening in climatic changes.
-- The importance of dairy industry will increase as
an adaptation to the decrease of supply of milk by
the dairy cows industry. The importance of dairy
goats will be inversely proportion to decline in dairy
cows production.
-Because overall production of milk will decline and
demand for milk and dairy product is high, it will be
much profitable to raise goats in the future
Research needs and consideration of
how to deal with future changes in
climatic changes in temperate zones
-There is no information if existing changes already affect dairy goats production
in different production system, such as grazing and confinement.
-There is no information (at least in the international literature) on the ability of
local goats to deal with heat stress.
-Need to develop knowledge and strategies to alleviate heat stress: start from
simple to sophisticate: providing shade, improving housing, ventilation and active
cooling.
-Considering selection toward resilience to heat stress and importing breeds with
high production capacity (e,g., Anglo-Nubian breed), which are already adapted
to heat stress.
- Considering that goats reproduction is seasonal:
Do we need to adjust the breeding changes to earlier appearance of spring?
- Developing nutritional strategies to alleviate the negative effects of heat stress
on milk composition (reduction in protein and fat concentration in milk)
Thank for the attention