Transcript (PPTX, Unknown) - ACMAD

CLIMATE SERVICES IN ACMAD-MESA PROJECT:
AN OVERVIEW
Presenter: Andre Kamga
ACMAD-MESA Project Manager
ACMAD-MESA CONTR-1 and Celebration of the 56th WMD
ACMAD, Niamey-NIGER
21th – 25th March 20156
TWO CLIMATE SERVICES FOR DRR
1- CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT SERVICE
2- DROUGHT SERVICE AND SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST
Capacities expected from
Continental Climate THEMA Focal Points (FPs)
Being Trainers – true spirit leadership, excellent coaching, motivation, presentation and
creating awareness skills combined with pedagogical experience.
Being Multipliers – excellent communication and networking skills combined with high
flexibility, willingness to learn, team spirit, as well as negotiation and social
competences.
Being Ambassadors – intercultural awareness and competency combined with
excellent analytical, conception and strategic decision making skills to promote
Continental Climate THEMA Services.
Role of focal Points is to contribute to meetings, forums,
workshops and conferences such as:
-Continental and regional trainings, Steering and
planning meetings
-Regional and continental EUMETSAT and MESA
workshops and forums;
-Side events and exhibitions;
-Policy Dialogues;
-Special “ad hoc” or on the job training events;
-Regional Climate Outlook fora;
Duties of ACMAD-MESA Focal Points
 participate in the Continental Climate THEMA training at Continental level
(CONT-TR) as Trainer;
 train “their” regional (REG-TR) Focal Points;
- Interpret technical notes for climate experts, bulletins and reports for
experts in climate sensitive sectors ( water, agriculture, DRR…);
- Provide climate briefs/summaries/statements for regional policy and
decision makers;
-Contribute to capacity building on drought monitoring, seasonal
forecasting, climate change assessment for NMHSs, regional policy and
decision makers ;
- Assist in planning, organizing and participating to conferences, seminars
and training workshops ;
Climate Change Assessment Service
( see factsheet)
Climate Change indices/products
Technical notes ( including Products)
Bulletins/reports
Brief for policy and Decisions Makers
Feedbacks&Success stories
Main Climate Change indices/products
Ranking of annual temperatures anomalies over African land
masses: Product of the CCA Reports.
Sucess story:
This product contributes to support advocacy for a global
warming goal at 1,5°C .
Warming trend changed from 2°C per Century for the past 6 decades to
about 3°C per Century during the past 3 decades
African Negociators to UNFCCC support 1.5°C global warming maximum in
the Paris Agreement.
If this Agreement is implemented and given the current
warming rate in Africa, the continent may reached 3°C warming
when at global level 1.5°C warming will occur in the 2050-2070
time horizon
Hot nights and days for policy and decision making in the Energy sector for Niger. The 2010
heat wave event prompted international assistance
Increase in extremes temperatures in Niamey –Niger in April/May
Need for heat early warning systems in African major cities
Additional electricity production/distribution capacity with solar panels
and wind farms should be major elements of Africa’s energy policy and
strategy
2014 Precipitation product : Droughts in
Senegal-Mauritania border
Change in the mean temperature/precip for 2021-2050
with respect to 1976-2005 based period. Global models ensemble mean
Data Source: WCRP/ CMIP5 not available on MESA Stations
CCA BRIEF FOR POLICY/DECISION MAKERS
HAZARDS SCENARIO FOR 2011-2040
Agriculture Calendar , crop types and varieties revision,
Choice of livestock type ( cows versus goat or sheep )
under CAADP
DROUGHT MONITOR
http://www.acmad-au.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Drought-Monitor.jpg
African Drought Monitor
Products in technical notes and bulletins
NDVI anomaly for November 2015.
Soil moisture anomaly for November 2015
http://www.acmad-au.org/products-services/
drought-services-seasonal-climate-forecast/statement-andpolicy/
http://acmad-au.org/wpcontent/uploads/2015/08/Drought-monitoringJFM2015.png
1 Thematic expert and 3 support staff would be needed for implementation
of this procedure
SWIOCOF 2014
3
5
4
4
4
2
4
3
4
7
6
7
5
4
5
2
2
1
20132014
5
3
20122013
NUMBER OF TROPICAL STORMS AND CYCLONES (SWIO BASIN)
Interannual variability
20112012
7
20102011
6
20092010
6
20082009
4
20072008
7
20062007
9
20052006
6
20042005
4
4
20032004
5
20022003
10
20012002
4
20002001
7
19992000
8
19981999
6
19971998
6
19961997
6
19951996
6
19941995
4
19931994
4
19921993
3
19911992
5
19901991
16
19891990
2
19881989
7
19871988
2
19861987
8
19851986
19841985
2
19831984
Evidences of inter-annual variability on SWIO cyclone activity
Storms
Cyclones
14
12
6
2
5
6
4
3
6
5
5
8
2
4
3
6
7
4
5
3
1
2
0
SWIOCOF 2014
20132014
20122013
20112012
20102011
20092010
20082009
20072008
20062007
20052006
20042005
20032004
20022003
20012002
20002001
19992000
19981999
19971998
19961997
19951996
19941995
19931994
19921993
19911992
19901991
19891990
3,00
19881989
19871988
19861987
19851986
19841985
19831984
Evidences of inter-annual variability on SWIO cyclone activity
Acumulated Cyclone Energy (SWIO BASIN) : STANDARDIZED ANOMALY
Interannual variability
2,00
1,00
0,00
-1,00
-2,00
-3,00
SST modes and Cyclone Activity : statistical relation
Nb Cyc
Season
19811982
19821983
19831984
19841985
19851986
19861987
19871988
19881989
19891990
19901991
19911992
19921993
19931994
19941995
19951996
19961997
19971998
19981999
19992000
20002001
20012002
20022003
20032004
20042005
20052006
20062007
20072008
20082009
20092010
20102011
20112012
20122013
20132014
MOY
Standard Daviation
SWIOCOF 2014
5
2
4
2
5
2
6
7
5
3
3
4
8
5
6
5
1
2
4
4
9
7
6
4
3
7
6
2
5
2
4
7
5
4,5
2,0
NB Storm
3
1
7
5
6
2
3
4
4
4
7
6
6
6
4
7
4
4
5
2
2
5
4
6
3
3
6
8
4
1
6
3
5
4,4
1,7
NB Syst
SWIO
8
3
11
7
11
4
9
11
9
7
10
10
14
11
10
12
5
6
9
6
11
12
10
10
6
10
12
10
9
3
10
10
10
8,9
2,5
SST MODES DURING AUSTRAL SUMMER (DJFM)
NINO3-4
SIOD
MODE3
1,04
-1,85
-0,77
-0,65
-1,00
-0,40
-1,16
0,27
-1,79
-0,80
-0,14
0,16
0,30
-1,38
-0,31
0,15
0,57
-0,07
-0,21
1,54
0,54
-0,01
-0,55
-2,16
-0,16
-1,59
-0,54
-0,03
1,03
0,57
-0,76
-0,61
-0,19
1,18
0,10
0,92
0,22
-0,54
-1,73
-1,03
1,29
-0,68
-0,27
-0,73
-1,02
0,22
-0,73
0,34
-1,96
1,65
-0,90
2,18
-1,28
1,46
-0,57
-0,30
0,64
1,01
-0,87
1,63
-1,03
0,12
-0,34
-0,92
0,30
0,03
0,04
1,91
0,55
-0,01
0,29
0,69
1,75
0,27
1,22
0,85
0,45
2,01
1,09
-0,19
-0,36
-0,09
0,46
0,44
-0,92
1,44
0,28
1,08
0,27
1,05
-1,02
-0,19
-0,04
-0,90
-0,28
-0,16
-0,04
1,98
-0,42
-0,95
-0,41
1,24
0,62
-1,56
0,14
0,26
1,51
0,20
0,09
0,92
-0,79
-0,43
1,97
-1,35
-1,54
-0,65
-0,10
0,93
0,24
0,50
-0,77
0,50
-1,42
-0,76
1,41
-1,27
-0,75
-0,58
-0,59
SST modes and Cyclone Activity : statistical relation
Nb Cyc /
season
NB Syst /
season
AVERAGE (1982-2014)
4,5
4,4
8,9
Standard Daviation
2,0
1,7
2,5
SIOD ++
SIOD - -
3,7
4,6
3,6
5,0
7,3
9,6
SWIO ++
SWIO - -
3,6
6,3
2,6
5,3
6,2
11,5
4,1
4,3
3,6
4,9
7,8
9,1
4,2
3,8
4,1
2,6
4
4,4
4,6
3,6
8,2
8,2
8,8
6,2
Composites (number of
cyclones or storms) for
positive and negative MODE3 - MODE3 ++
events
NINA strong
NINA all events
NINO all events
NINO strong
SWIOCOF 2014
Nb Storm /
season
CONCLUSIONS
1. Representatives of Universities of Dakar and Nairobi to discuss
draft table of contents for climate services training material: CCA
for University of Dakar and DSF for University of Nairobi
2. Capacity of Focal points built to generate products , reports and
briefs
3. Universities continue developing training modules after CONTR-01.
4. All participants ( ACMAD-MESA focal points on climate services
ready to act as trainers on climate services in their countries and
regions
)