Transcript Climate Change Based Risk Management Approaches Used on

2014 International Conference on Sustainable
Infrastructure
Long Beach, California
Climate Change Based Risk
Management Approaches Used On
Transportation System Assets
Art Hirsch
TerraLogic
Benjamin Kunstman
University of Michigan
November 6, 2014
Selected Quotes on Climate Change Adaptation
“The United States Department of Transportation (DOT) shall integrate
consideration of climate change impacts and adaptation into the
planning, operations, policies, and programs”..Ray LaHood, Former
Secretary of Transportation
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) has released two studies which warn the
business community of impending significant risks to assets as a result of
climate change..Price Waterhouse
“The area of climate change has a dramatic impact on national security..
DoD will need to adjust to the impacts of climate change on its facilities,
infrastructure, training and testing activities, and military capabilities”.
Secretary Leon E. Panetta, May 2, 2012
“The idea that carbon dioxide is a carcinogen that is harmful to our
environment is almost comical. Every time we exhale, we exhale carbon
dioxide…Congressmen, Speaker of the House John Boehner, 2013
Purpose of Presentation
• Identify pro-active climate change risk
management actions and approaches
• Transportation context
• Risk management approaches
– FHWA
– United Kingdom
– New Zealand
• Identify proactive adaptation approaches to
address future climate change risks
FHWA-Climate Change & Extreme Weather
Vulnerability Assessment Framework
• No regulatory driver; guidance only
• Directed to DOTs and MPOs
• Model based upon 2010 pilot studies
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Coastal and Central NJ
Oahu MPO
San Francisco Pilot
State of Washington
Virginia DOT
Gulf Coast Study
Framework flexibility
Stakeholder Input
Incorporate into decision making/asset management
Wide range of asset types
Transportation Highway Assets
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Roadway and Pavement
Culverts
Tunnels
Bridges
Intelligent Transportation Systems
Bicycle and pedestrian facilities
Traffic signaling and lighting
Storm water permanent features
Maintenance facilities
Key evacuation routes
Roadside vegetation
FHWA-Climate Change & Extreme Weather
Vulnerability Assessment Framework
• Objective not to develop adaptation plan; to
identify vulnerabilities
• Past weather data limited in value to trends
• Vulnerability assessment using range of model
inputs; use various models
• Limited on looking at community or social
impacts in assessment
• Limited guidance in developing adaptation
strategies and plans
UK-Highways Agency Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
and Framework
UK-Highway Agency Climate Change
Adaptation Strategy and Framework
• Required by Climate Change Act (2008)
• Developed with agencies and stakeholders
• Risk appraisal (4 criteria)
– Level of Uncertainty: impact on asset
– Rate of Change: asset/activity life
– Severity of Disruption (recovery time)
– Extent of Disruption (% network affected)
• Numeric conversions/equations to vulnerability
score
Vulnerability Index Calculation
Vulnerability Rating
• Rate of climate change (Low/Medium/High)
• Severity of disruption (Low/Medium/High)
• Extent of disruption (Low/Medium/High)
• Uncertainty level (Low/Medium/High)
Convert to numeric score
High=3/Medium=2/Low=1
Final Vulnerability Index= [rate of change] x
[severity] x [extent] x (4-[uncertainty])/81
UK-Highway Agency Climate Change
Adaptation Framework
• Specific Options Analysis for Adaptation Strategies
– Do minimum/monitor
– Identify easy/straight forward actions
– Update specifications and standards
– Retrofit
– Long term planning changes
– Update standard operating procedures
– Cost is considered
• Emphasis on plan, program development and reporting
• Clear responsibilities identified
• Management involvement and direction
New Zealand Risk Assessment Process AS/NZS4360
New Zealand Risk Assessment
• 2004 Guidance Manual First Edition
• All infrastructure focus
• Directed to Regional Councils and local
governments
• Integrate with standard processes
• Limited guidance on adaptation strategies
development
• Key climate change management; sustainability
based elements (Maori kaitiaki)
New Zealand Risk Assessment
• 14 weather models (2040 & 2090/1990 baseline)
• Impact/consequences (scenarios)
– Human safety
– Economic
– Social
– Cultural
– Environment
• Communication Plan
– Internal and external stakeholders
Assessment Similarities
• Same basic risk assessment process
• More certainty in direction of climate change
than magnitude
• Uncertainty should not preclude action
• Made part of the normal project planning
process
• Iterative process
• Use various models and scenarios
• Some level of stakeholder involvement
Art Hirsch
TerraLogic
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