Transcript “Do the Math” on Climate Change

Canadian Tar Sands
Local
impacts
Large-scale toxic pollution, impacting
people, wild lands and wildlife
Global
climate
impact
Dirtiest form of crude oil, would
accelerate global CO2 emissions instead
of reducing them
“Do the Math” Summary
by
Evan Hughes
Climate Change (also the oceans)
• Science Not in Question
• Happening Faster than Anticipated:
– Significant impacts in the next 20-30 years
– Severe impacts by the end of the century
• Fairness Issue:
– U.S. largest contributor to the problem
– Most impacted will be those in the poorest countries.
• The Way Forward:
– There are concrete solutions that will not destroy the
economy
– Major issues are not technical, but political, and driven by
entrenched interests (“. . . the enemy . . . is Shell.”)
Why 350?
275 The ppm CO
2
in the atmosphere for the last 10,000 years
For all of human history until 300 years ago our atmosphere contained 275 parts per million
(ppm) carbon dioxide (CO2). This level of CO2 provided a stable atmosphere that allowed
humans to flourish, develop agriculture and expand our societies.
390 The ppm CO
2
in the atmosphere TODAY
The SAFE ppm CO2 level for our atmosphere
350 ppm is the number that leading scientists say is the safe upper
limit of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere.
“If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to
which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and on-going climate change suggest
that CO2 will need to be reduced to at most 350 ppm.” - Dr. James Hansen, NASA
Do the Math
2°C
Global Consensus on Upper Limit of Warming
Almost every government has agreed that warming above a 2°C (3.6°F) rise is unsafe. We have
already raised the temperature 0.8°C, and caused far more damage than most scientists expected. A
third of summer sea ice in the Arctic is gone, the oceans are 30% more acidic, and since warm air
holds more water vapor than cold, the dice are loaded for devastating floods, droughts and storms.
565 GigatonsThe MAX amount of additional CO
2
we can ADD
Scientists estimate that humans can pour roughly 565 more gigatons of carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere and still have some reasonable hope of staying below two degrees. Computer models
calculate that even if we stopped increasing CO2 levels now, the temperature would still rise another
0.8°C above the 0.8 we’ve already warmed, which means that we’re already 3/4s of the way to the
2°C target.
2,795 Gigatons Proven Coal, Oil & Gas Reserves TODAY
The total proven reserves of fossil fuel companies is five times the amount we can release to
maintain 2°C of warming. In order to stay below 2°C warming we need to keep 80% of reserves
IN THE GROUND.
My Math (not 350.org)
• Not much more carbon can be moved from the rocks to the
atmosphere:
– ~10,000 years prior to ~1750 the atmosphere contained
~3000 Gt CO2 for about 280 ppm: “just right deg C”
– 1950: ~3700 Gt and ~330 ppm
– 1980: ~4300 Gt and ~380 ppm
– 2010: ~4500 Gt and ~395 ppm
– 2025: ~5100 Gt and 450 ppm  the 2 deg C point!
– 2050: ~6500 Gt and 580 ppm  perhaps the 3 deg C point
– Therefore, significant impacts in the next 20-30 years, and
severe impacts by the end of the century
• The Way Forward: STOP THE FREE DUMPING OF CO2!
My Message (350.org too?)
• The Way Forward:
– There are concrete solutions that will not destroy the
economy: We can pay each other to do different things,
some new and some not, and even help the economy
with new growth.
– Major issues are not technical, but political, and driven by
entrenched interests: How best move the politics and give
new directions to “entrenched” assets, skills and
expertise?
– What role and objective for the divestment effort? How
best educate about “no more moving C from rocks to
sky” and living well without the free dumping of CO2?
About
Mission:
Reduce dangerous carbon emissions by building a
global grassroots movement of citizens working
to solve the climate crisis and organizing to
transform our local communities.
 Global, Strategic, Focused Organization
 Thousands of Events in over 180 countries since
2007
 Largest Grassroots Effort in History
Organizing Manifesto
Highlights:
• We strive to build an inclusive
and empowering movement.
• We are committed to real
action, not just talk.
• Any movement that isn't fun
isn't worth being a part of.
• While science is important,
stories make our movement
powerful, and human.
Silicon Valley
Mission:
 Build a strong grassroots effort in the South Bay/Peninsula
region focused on taking action on climate change and
having an impact on the local, national and global level in
conjunction with 350.org
 Organize our effort to be inclusive, accessible, welcoming
and empowering to all who want to join in and take action
on climate change
 Coordinate and connect with other groups with a common
purpose in the region
Silicon Valley – Projects
• Stop Keystone XL Pipeline
• Divest from Fossil Fuels
• Pass Carbon Tax/Cap and Trade &
End Fossil Fuel Subsidies
• Outreach & Local Action Projects to
Lower Carbon Footprint