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The geological context of climate
change as a basis for policy
CO2
Professor Bob Carter
James Cook University, Townsville
Institute of Public Affairs, Melbourne
American Chemical Society
Symposium: “A Critical Look
ät Global Warming Data”
4.15 p.m.
August 28, 2011
William Hogarth, 1762
CREDULITY, SUPERSTITION & FANATICISM
CH4
CONTEXT – is late 20th C temperature unusual?
The last 6 million years – ODP Sites, Central Pacific Ocean
ICEHOUSE
In surface waters
WARM
equivalent to
~100 C
at high
latitudes
Representing
200,000
climate data points
Diagram courtesy Alan Mix, Oregon State University
COLD
Satellite temperatures, 1979-2011
DID GLOBAL TEMPERATURE WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE LATE 20th C?
1
CDP
March 2011
-0.1 deg. C
CO2 = 335 ppm in 1979
388 (+15%) in 2010
(data after Spencer, 2011)
RADIOSONDE TEMPERATURES, 1958-2002:
Hypothesis 1 - Recent global warming has occurred
Hypothesis 2 - The greenhouse hypothesis is true
SEVEN BLACK SWANS A-SWANNING
SEVEN BLACK SWANS A-SWANNING
Upper
troposphere
hot spot
WEATHER
BALLOON RADIOSONDES
Anomaly (deg. C)
deg. C anomaly
2
1.50
1.50
Lower atmosphere mean global temperature anomaly;
radiosonde record, HadAT2
3
0.75
0.75
52
0.00
0.00
11
-0.75
- 0.75
- 1.50
-1.50
CO2 = 315 ppm in 1958
1
1960
1
1970
2
2
Tim
4
Flannery
Overestimated
sensitivity
Michael
Mann
5
3
Inaccurate GCMs
T rate within natural range
373
3
6
7
5 leads CO2 in ice
T
7 cores
6
1980
4
4
(+18%) in 2002
T magn. within natural range
5
1990
7
2000
6
Thorne, P.W., et al., 2005. Revisiting radiosonde upper air temperatures
to
Photo:from
Sam1958
Bal Photography,
WA
2002. Journal of Geophysical Research. 110: D18105, doi:10.1029/2004JD005753
CONTEXT: CO2 – levels through time
Hypothesis 3 – Atmospheric CO2 is at unusually high levels today
280 ppm (or even 390
or 560 ppm) indicates
CO2 starvation
compared with the
geological past
End of context: What about the evidence? There isn’t any, only models?
Global temperature v. IPCC model projections, 2000-2011
Hypothesis 4 – The IPCC computer models are correct
1/3
Analysis by
Dr. Lucia Liljegren
CDP
http://rankexploits.com/musi
ngs/2011/hadley-marchanomaly-0-318c-up/
IPCC computer
projection
Actual temp.
trend
390
ppm
CO2
370
ppm
= 5% increase
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/tren
ds/co2/sio-keel-flask/siokeel-flaskmlo_c.html
3
REAL SCIENTISTS TEST HYPOTHESES AGAINST FACTS
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/05/13/
downing_cambridge_climate_conference
"People underestimate the power of models.
Observational evidence is not very useful ….
Our approach is not entirely empirical“.
Professor John Mitchell, British Met Office
(May 10, 2011, Downing College, Cambridge)
The Mediaeval Warm Period
FIVE IMPORTANT
CONCLUSIONS
•
•
•
•
•
The assumption that prior to the industrial
revolution the earth had a “stable” climate is
simply wrong.
Climate has always changed, and always will. There is
nothing unusual about present-day rates of change.
Atmospheric CO2 is neither a pollutant, nor the primary
forcing agent for temperature change; rather, CO2
is an overall benefice for humankind.
Attempting to stop climate change is an
expensive act of utter futility.
The only sensible thing to do about climate
change is to adapt to it – both benign
warmings and the more dangerous coolings
(cf. earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, storms)
The Little Ice Age
WE AGREE ON THESE THINGS
• Humans cause local climate change.
(so there must be a global effect; all that’s in doubt is its sign and magntiude)
• Carbon dioxide is a minor greenhouse gas.
• Global climate is a non-linear (chaotic) system.
(So it is unpredictable)
• GCMs are useful heuristic, but not predictive, tools.
• Climate change has multiple causes
AND WE DISAGREE ON THESE ….
• There may be no warming since 1995/1979/1958/1940.
• Climate sensitivity is between 0.3 and 1.3 deg. C.
• The AGW signal is unmeasurable (lost in the noise).
(despite CO2 increases of 5%, 15% and >20%)
• The climate change we observe today results from natural forcings.
(which is the null hypothesis and remains unfalsified)
The geological context of
climate change as a basis
for policy
Professor Bob Carter
James Cook University, Townsville
Institute of Public Affairs, Melbourne
American Chemical Society
Symposium: “A Critical Look
ät Global Warming Data”
4.15 p.m.
August 28, 2011