Transcript 影响和适应性转变 - 中国气候变化信息网

Climate Change in China:
Impacts and adaptation
中国的气候变化：影响和适应性转变
Defra (DECC)-DFID
China-UK collaboration
食品和农村事务部（能源和气候变化
部 ）国际发展部，
中英合作
Prof Lin Erda
[email protected]
Chinese Academy of Agricultural
Sciences
中国农业科学院
Declan Conway, UEA
[email protected]
China: Summary of recent trends
(from IPCC AR4)
中国：基于IPCC第四次评估报告的最新趋势综述
Temperatures气温
– Warmer in last 50 years, higher extremes
在过去的50年气温变得更高，特别是极端温度
Precipitation降水
– Complex patterns, increase in intensity,
– 复杂的模式，降水强度的增加
– Some evidence for increase in flood frequency
– 一些证据表明洪水发生频率的上升
– Some areas increase in drought (temperature related?)
干旱地区的增加（与气温相关？）
Other….其他
– Cyclones, increasing intensity (decreasing freq.?)
– 旋风，强度的增加（出现频率下降？）
– Glaciers retreating冰川融化
Climate Change – what do we expect based on the IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report?
气候变化-对于IPCC第四次评估报告我们期待什么结果

Gradual warming (higher frequency of temperature
extremes)

逐渐变暖（极端温度的频繁出现）

For the next two decades a warming of about
0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of
SRES emission scenarios

未来20年在关于排放情景的特殊报告中被预计为每
十年增长0.2°C
Climate Change – Frequency and Magnitude
of Extremes
气候变化-极端变化的频率和幅度

Very likely to be an increase in the frequency of
intense precipitation events in parts of South Asia,
and East Asia

很可能演变成在东南亚部分地区强降水事件发生强
度和频率的增加
Extreme rainfall and winds associated with tropical
cyclones are likely to increase in East Asia,
Southeast Asia and South Asia.
东南亚地区出现极端的降水和热带气旋带来的狂风


Northwest:
Desertification
(higher evaporation)
西北:荒漠化（高蒸发）
North and northeast:
Increased water
scarcity
华北和东北：水资源
短缺的上升
Tibetan Plateau:
Change in river
flows / melting
glaciers
青藏高原：河流流
量的变化/冰川融化
Southern China: Increase in flood
frequency and magnitude
中国南方：洪水发生频率和幅度的提高
Coastal regions:
Typhoons, storm
surge and longterm inundation
沿海地区：台风，
风暴潮河长期性水
灾
Achievements in Phase I (2001-04)
第一阶段的成果（2001年至04年）
Climate Change Scenarios 气候变化情况
Temperature to increase by 3~4℃ and
rainfall to increase 10~12% by 2080s
气温增加3~4℃ ，到21世纪80年代降雨量增加
10~12%
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
Crop Yield Changes 农作物产量变化
Yields of rice, maize and wheat to change
significantly in the next 80 years - without
any adaptations
若在未来80年中没有任何适应性措施，水稻玉
米小麦产量将发生显著性变化
New results from Phase II
Integrating climate change, water availability and socioeconomic scenarios
第二阶段的新成果：将气候变化，水供应和社会经济情景合为
整体考察
•
•
•
•
•
•
Climate Change;气候变化
CO2 fertilization effects
二氧化碳肥效
Water Availability水供应
Agricultural land conversion农业用地
的变化
All drivers together将所有影响因素放
在一起考虑
The integration approach
集成路径
Change in total cereal production with different combinations of drivers
不同影响因素组合导致谷物总产量的变化
Only climate change:只有气候变化
 Without CO2, modest negative impacts
by 2050s
不考虑CO2肥效，至2050是中等的负面
影响
Change in total cereal production with
different combinations of drivers
Climate change and CO2:
 With CO2, production
increases in all cases
考虑CO2后，总产都增
加
Change in total cereal production with
different combinations of drivers
Climate change and
water:
 Water is a
significant limiting
factor for future
cereal production
水是未来粮食生产的
关键因素之一。
All drivers together:所有因素都考虑进来

Multiple effects tend to counter-balance,
BUT…

多种因素往往相互抗衡，但是。。。
Key issues affecting the results
影响结果的主要问题








PRECIS gives optimistic precipitation
维持原状会带来充分的降水
Effects of extremes (and pests/diseases) underestimated
低估极端气候（和虫害/疾病）带来的影响
National analysis obscures areas with much larger changes
国家整体性分析模糊了各个地区的大变化
CO2 effect may not be so large
二氧化碳的影响或许没有那么大
2020s
Precipitation change (%)
20
2050s
2080s
15
PRECIS 2020s
PRECIS 2050s
10
PRECIS 2080s
5
0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
-5
-10
Temperature change (degree C)
–
–
–
Annual change in temperature and rainfall for China: 2020s, 2050s
and 2080s中国气温和降水量的年度变化：2020，2050，2080
17 GCMs from IPCC and PRECIS (A2 emissions)
IPCC17种环流模式和维持原状的情况（加减2单位排放量）
Modelling the effects of adaptation
对适应性影响建模


Three high level policy responses considered:
考虑政策反应的三高水平
 Reduction in land conversion (LP)
 减少土地转化（LP）
 Prioritising water for agriculture/irrigation (WD)
 优先农业用水/灌溉（WD）
 Improvements in agricultural technology (AT)
 改进农业技术（AT)
Modelling the effects of adaptation

Results show adaptation can offset effects of climate
change, BUT….结果表明适应性措施能削弱气候变化的影响，
但是
 Assumes sustainable agricultural production
 假设农业可持续生产
 Factors such as land degradation, use and access to
inputs, not included
 影响投入的因素如土地退化，使用
 China must maintain / increase investment in
agricultural technology
 中国必须保持或增加农业科技投入
Changes in cereal production per capita under
combinations of drivers
Cereal per capita (kg)
考虑所有影响因素组合情况下人均谷物产量变化
320
CC only A2
300
CC/CO2 A2
280
CC/CO2/WA A2
All drivers A2
260
CC only B2
240
CC/CO2 B2
220
CC/CO2/WA B2
200
All drivers B2
180
2000
2020s
2050s
The effect of adaptation strategies on cereal production per capita
适应性战略对人均谷物产量的影响
420
A2_No
A2_WD
Cereal per capita (kg)
380
A2_WD+LP
340
A2_WD+LP+AT
300
B2_No
B2_WD
260
B2_WD+LP
220
B2_WD+LP+AT
180
2000
2020s
2050s
China Case Study: Regional Impacts, Vulnerability and
Adaptation
中国案例研究：地区影响，脆弱性和适应性
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences中国农业研究院
– Institute of Environment and Sustainable
Development in Agriculture
–
环境和农业可持续发展研究所
Ningxia CDM service centre 宁夏碳交易中心
Ningxia Meteorological Bureau宁夏气象局
Prof Lin Erda
[email protected]
Chinese Academy of
Agricultural Sciences
Declan Conway, UEA
[email protected]
Ningxia Autonomous Region – north-west China
Semi-arid to arid – high levels of rural poverty
Range of different farming systems宁夏自治区位于中国西北部半干旱至
干旱地区，农村非常贫困，多种耕作制度并存
An adaptation framework for Ningxia
宁夏的适应性措施框架
Working with stakeholders….
利益相关方共同合作…
New knowledge/
Research
新知识/研究
1 Assess climate risks
1气候风险评估
6 Monitoring and evaluation
6监控和评估
5 Implementation
5执行
Adaptation as a process
将适应性措施作为一个进程
2 Integrate development and
adaptation goals
2发展与适应目标相结合
3 Identify adaptation options
3确定适应对策选项
4 Prioritise options
4将选项按缓急排列
Step 1: Assessing climate risks
步骤1：气候风险评估
Risk assessment:
风险评估：
•
What is likelihood of the event
occurring?
•
什么是事件发生的可能性？
•
What is the potential impact of such an
event?
•
此事件的潜在影响是什么？
Requires:
要求：
•
Good understanding of current
•
对当前要有充分的了解
•
sensitivity / vulnerability
•
敏感性/脆弱性
•
How climate will change
•
气候将如何变化
Understanding of current
对当前的认识
sensitivity / vulnerability
敏感性/脆弱性
Questionnaires and consultation with
stakeholders:
对利益相关方进行问卷调查和咨询：
 Farming communities
 农民社区
 Decision-makers
 决策方
Questionnaire aimed at providing rapid insight into
climate vulnerability
旨在为气候脆弱性提供洞见的问卷调查
Assess whether and by how much
people living in different areas have
been affected by recent climate events
(i.e. their vulnerability)
评定居住在不同地区的人们是否以及多大
程度上受到最近气候事件的影响（也即其
脆弱性）
Identify the kinds of response
strategies they or organisations have
implemented to reduce the effects of
climate on livelihoods
明确他们或组织为了减轻气候对生活所造
成影响而实施的反应策略的种类
Dialogue with farmers and organisations – current and
future climate hazards
农民和组织的对话—当前及将来的气候危害
If drought becomes more
common in the future - or gets
more extreme - are there any
measures that you can take？
若干旱在将来更普遍，或者变得更
极端，我们还有什么可以采取的措
施吗？
What government programs
Examples
例子
could help you to adapt to
climate change?怎样的政府规划能
帮助你适应气候变化？
What are the main future climate risks for
Ningxia?
宁夏将来最主要的气候风险是什么？
Expert judgement: combine scenario information and
vulnerability assessment
专家意见：联合具体情况和脆弱性评估
Four main risks identified:
确认四个主要风险：
1. Drought (a major concern of stakeholders in Ningxia)干
旱（宁夏利益相关方的关注重点）
2. Surprises/extreme events (increases in windstorms,
agricultural pests and diseases)奇袭/极端事件（暴风，农
作物害虫和疾病不断增加）
3.
Drying/high temperatures
干旱/高温
–
Desertification is already
serious in Ningxia
土地荒漠化在宁夏已经非常严
重
–
Higher temperatures will
increase evaporation
causing greater stress on
plants
较高的温度加速了水份蒸发，
这给植物造成很大压力
4.
Change in Yellow River flows
黄河流域的变化
High-level adaptation recommendations for agriculture
and prioritisation
对农业和方法的高水平适应性建议
•
Consider establishment of a cross-
departmental group on
adaptation within regional government
考虑在适应性方面同地区政府建立一个
跨部门的团队
•
Raising awareness on climate
change trends, potential impacts and
adaptation activities across the region
增强对气候变化趋势，潜在影响，以及
跨区域的适应性活动的意识
•
Opportunities through
ongoing rural development
programmes
•
在正在开展的农村发展项目中寻找机会
Table 6. Examples of priority adaptations表6.优先适应的例子
Sector / Risk
Risk
or opportunity
priority
风险或机遇
风险优
先
Possible high
level adaptations
可能的高等级适应
性措施
Responsible stakeholder(s)
利益相关者
的反应
Adapt.
Priority
适应性优
先
Northern Ningxia宁夏自治区南部
RISK:
Change in
Yellow
River flows
风险：黄河
流量的改变
High
高
Improvements in early
warning改进预警
Improvements in intraregional (and sectoral)
allocation of water改进
内部地区（和部门间）
水资源分配
Yellow River
Comm.
Ningxia
Water
Resource
Dept.
黄河水利委
员会
宁夏水资源
部
High
高
Key points关键点
Adaptation as a process适应是一个过程
There are no blueprints for adaptation对于适应性措施没有现实蓝本
The local context is important当地现实情况很重要
Consultation with stakeholders 与利益相关者进行协商
should be a key part of the process:以下应该是过程的关键部分
•
What are the main risks?什么事最主要的风险
•
Who / what is vulnerable? 谁/什么事是脆弱的
•
What are realistic and effective responses and who is best placed
to take action and when? 什么是现实和有效的应对，谁最合适做出应
对，何时做出应对
Some reflections几点思考
Challenges:挑战
Uncertainty about the detail of CC remains high – need for
关于CC细节的不确定仍然很高，这需要
–
research to reduce uncertainties研究如何降低这种不确定性
–
flexibility / adaptive management灵活的/适应性的管理
Time scales beyond horizons of stakeholders超过利益相关者眼界的时间跨度
Other socio-economic changes more significant (population, economic growth)其
他社会经济变化更为显著（人口数量，经济增长）
Modelling impacts can become very complex and time consuming (CO2
fertilisation, model sensitivity, etc.)建模的影响变得更为复杂和耗时（二氧化碳肥效，
模式灵敏度等等）
Climate science气候科学
Seasonal forecasting / Decadal variability (causes of droughts)季节预测/十年编译（由干
旱导致）
Improved understanding of CO2-crop water use-land cover interactions提高对二氧化碳，
农作物，水，土地覆盖之间相互作用的认识
Better understanding of extremes (projections and impacts)对于极端气候更好的了解
（预测和影响）
Some reflections几点思考
Methods:方法
Consultation essential – need good understanding of current sensitivity,
vulnerability and capacity to adapt
协商必不可少—需要对现今敏感性，脆弱性有充分的认识和去应对的能力
Impacts assessment – can be very technical/time consuming – keep
simple
评估的影响—可以非常技术性/耗时—保持简单
Embed CC concerns within existing management systems and
processes
在现存管理体系和流程中引入CC
No blueprints for adaptation, need to invest time on communication and
awareness raising, especially at provincial level
适应性策略没有蓝本，需要在沟通和提高认识上投入时间，特别是在省这一级
Some reflections几点思考
Opportunities:机遇
Recent extremes may highlight current sensitivity and vulnerability
(and effective responses)
近期极端气候会凸显当前敏感性和脆弱性（和有效应对）
Collaboration, ‘shared experiences’ worked well
合作，“分享经验”使得工作更顺利
Many existing options often already present – ‘no regrets’ [CC often
exacerbates existing problems]
很多出现的选择往往已经存在-“不后悔”（CC经常加剧现存的问题）
Entry points likely to be dealing with existing ‘adaptation gap’: better
management of climate hazards
进入的点可能会在处理现存问题时存在“适应性差距”：需要更好的气候灾
Thank you谢谢
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