Transcript Global Sustainability and Local Sustainability @EcoLead 国際会議

Global Sustainability
and
Local Sustainability
@EcoLead
Itaru Yasui, Prof.
Prof.Emeritus, U of Tokyo
Former Vice Rector, United Nation University
President, National Institute of Technology and Evaluation
http://www.yasuienv.net/
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Bankruptcy of the Earth
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~Limit to Growth in 21st century
持続不可能な
Published December in 2012
地球の限界
To provide information to have an insight と未来像
into non-sustainable future of the Earth
Author Itaru YASUI
Coauthors, 8 researchers below,
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Seita Emori
NIES
Hiroyuki Kawashima Univ. of Tokyo
Ayako Sonoda
Cre-en, President
Koumei Halada
NIMS
Miki Baba Nikkei Ecology
Junichi Fujino
NIES
Yuuichi Moriguchi Univ. of Tokyo
Hiroyuki Matsuda National Univ. Yokohama
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What is your evaluation in 21st Century?
5: Very Serious, 4:Serious, 3:Rather Serious,
2: Moderate for a while 1:Managiable
個人的な評価を書いてみて下さい
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Climate Change/Extreme Whether
Loss of Biological Diversity
Depletion of Metal Resources
Depletion of Fossil Fuel
Explosion of Population/Food Issues
Environmental Pollution Issues
Not Enough Budget to Handle Issues
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Chapter 1.
Local Bankruptcy
地域の破綻
&
Global Sustainability
地球の持続可能性
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Coral Reef?
Republic of Nauru
Population 9300, 20km2
ナウル共和国
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Guano in Nauru ナウル産グアノ
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Guano manure is an effective fertilizer
due to its high levels of phosphorus
and nitrogen and its relative lack of
odor compared to other forms of
organic fertilizer such as horse manure.
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Guano Depleted in Republic of Nauru
枯渇したナウルのグアノ
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2 million tons every year
Amount decreased from 1989
100 million tons of guano mined
High income & No income tax
Free electricity
Free medical care and free education fee
No cooking, always eat outside
Laborers mainly from China
Economy 100% dependence on export
Started to Deplete from 2000
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Job less rate 90% No intention to work
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失業率９０％ 働く意思なし
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2012 Drought in USA
カンサス州の干ばつ
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East Part of Kansas, USA
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West Part of Kansas, USA
Center Pivot Irrigation
回転式散水機
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Ogallala Aquifer, Grate Planes, USA
Ogallala Aquifer, USA オガララ帯水層
“Fossil Water”
化石水
Water from 2 to 6 million years ago
＋
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Recharge Speed by rain << Extraction Speed
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It is difficult to say,
“Yes, they are OK. Because USA farmers
are different from people in Nauru.”
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Water Shortage - Hundreds of Millions of People
淡水不足 数億人
Biosphere may become net carbon source
植物圏が二酸化炭素排出原因に 湿性熱帯林
Food: Good in Some Place, Bad in Other Place
食料事情は地域にまばら
30% of Global Coastal Wetlands Lost
湿原が失われる
0
1
2
3
4 deg C
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Tipping Elements and Temperature Rise
Sea Level Rise ～7 meters in 1000 years or more
氷床の溶解で海面上昇
１０００年間で～７ｍ
Lenton and Schellnhuber (2007)
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Other Expression of Tipping Points
人間活動の圧力
Tipping Point
=Recovery Force
Becomes Zero
θ
人間
Pressure
By活動
Human
の
Activities
地球の復元力
圧力
Energy
0
TP
90 15 θ
Temperature – History 1000years
Temp. Northern Hemi-sphere
Little Glacier
Mann et al. (2008)より
小氷期の温度もそれほど違わない
Little Glacier: Temperature differences were not so Big!
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Trends in Living Planet Index
＝脊椎動物の減少
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Loss of Biodiversity
Climate Change ⇒ Distribution Change of Plant(Plantae)
⇒ Extinction of Species
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A typical species becomes extinct within 10 million
years of its first appearance 種の寿命 １０００万年
Human Beings may last 5～9 m Years or more
Global Scale Extinction Events When Scale
中生代白亜紀－新生代古第三紀
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Cretaceous–Paleogene(K–Pg)
中生代三畳紀－中生代ジュラ紀
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Triassic–Jurassic(Tr-J)
古生代ペルム紀－三畳紀
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Permian–Triassic (P–Tr)
古生代デボン紀後期
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Late Devonian (Late D)
古生代オルドビス紀－シルル紀
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Ordovician–Silurian (O-S)
～66 Ma 75%
～201 Ma
half
～252 Ma 96% Marine
～374 Ma
half
～450 Ma 60% Marine
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phanerozoic
五大絶滅
属
の
数
千
脊椎動物亜門哺乳綱獣亜綱食肉目ネコ亜目ネコ科ネコ属
Vertebrata Mammalia Theria Canivora Feliformia Felidae Felis
チーター属、レオパード属、オオヤマネコ属、ピューマ属、ヒョウ属、他に１２属
Acinonyx, Leopardus, Lynx, Puma, Panthera、12 Others
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Numbers of Species (in thousand)
生物種の数
菌・カビ
節足動物
原生動物
線虫
植物
擬軟体
甲殻類
脊椎動物
昆虫・多足類
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Speed of Extinction
１０００年間で１０００種の生物種のうち絶滅する数
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Global Scale Depletion of Underground
Resources – Minerals/Fossil Fuel
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Recent Trend: Price goes up!
Probably because of
Commodity Price Indices Excessive liquidity
Food
過剰流動性
投機資金
Raw Materials
Energy
Metals and Minerals
1990
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By 2050 all reserve will be used
By 2050 twice of reserve be used
By 2050 exceed reserve base
Reserve Base
Old Metals
＝漢字がある
Estimated Use
Accumulated
Reserve
Already Mined
原田幸明氏提供
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Degradation of Ore Grades
Ore Grades of Ni and Cu Mines（1885-2010）
Australia（％Cu）
Australia（％Ni）
Canda（％Cu）
Canada（％Ni）
USA（％Cu）
Cu
Ni
0.3%
森口祐一氏提供
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Env. Burden Ranking by TMR = Cu > Fe > Au > Al > Ni
Others
Zn
U
Rh
Pt
Pd
Sn
Ni
Al
Au
Fe
Cu
TMR = Total Material Requirement
有用な資源を採掘する結果発生する廃土・廃岩石の量
Weight of Mine Waste Accompanied by Mineral Extraction
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土地の改変
Area Converted
Developed
Countries
Forests in
Developing
Countries
From MA
=Millennium
Ecosystem
Assessment
(UN 2001~2005)
~1950 1950~1990 ~2050
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石油資源はなかなか枯渇しない 気候変動防止の視点→ 多すぎる
We still have enough petroleum. In some sense, TOO MUCH.
Price $/barrel
Ice Sea
Deep Ocean
300~1500m
Used
Midle East
Ultra Deep
1500m～
E
O
R
Shale
Oil
Heavy
Other
Reserves in Billion Barrel
Reserves vs. Cost for Oil Production
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UN Prospect
of Global
Population
up to 2100 ２
World Population
Prospects,
the 2010 Revision
Figure 1: Estimated and projected world population according to
different variants, 1950-2100 (billions)
“Megachange:
The world in 2050”
The Economist
High
Medium
Ours
Low
“2052” by
Jorgen Randers
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World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision
Projected
of Regions
up area,
to 2100
Figure
2: EstimatedPopulation
and projected population
by major
medium
variant , 1950-2100 (billions)
Asia
変曲点
Africa
To be Flat
Inflection Point
North America
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Fertility Rate is important
出生率が大きな要素
Asia
Africa
Latin
America
Oceania
North America
Europe
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Chapter 2.
Local Sustainability
under the influence of
Climate Change
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Typhoon No.30 Haiyan
Hit Leyte province in the eastern Philippines
２５日
０９時
２０日
１２時
２２日
０９時
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World Economic Forum ダボス会議
Global Risks 2013 Eighth Edition
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Select 50 risks from 5 fields, Societal,
Geopolitical, Economic, Technological and
Environmental
10 risks from each field
Total 50 risks with a scope of 10 years from
now
An Important Point＝Cognitive
Biases
「認知バイアス」
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Difficult to Overcome
Inevitable to overcome somehow
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Environmental
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Impact
4
気候変動適応策
温室効果ガス
濃度の上昇
異常気象頻発
対策不能な環境汚染
3.5
土地と水路の無謀な改変
抗生剤の効かない病原菌
3
3.5
Likelihood
4
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IPCC AR5 WGⅠ
Relation between
CO2 Emission
vs. Temp. Anomaly
温度上昇は累積のCO2放出量と比例
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Allowance of
放出可能な残り予算
Integrated Assessment Model
Best Available
Scenario？
IPCC AR5 WGⅠ
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CO2 Emission from Fossil Fuel
for 2050 and 2100
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Target: Anomaly below 2.5 ℃
Delay of some Tipping Elements
In order to this, with 9 B of population
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２１００年
一人
あたり
放出量
現在の
１／１０
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In 2050 10 GtC/year Globally
Per capita emission 1.1 ｔC/year/capita
In 2100 4 GtC/year Globally
Per capita emission 0.25 ｔC/year/capita
cf. Currenly in Japan
2.7 ｔC/year/capita
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Chapter 3. Local Risks
Agricultural Activities and Related Risks
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Environmental Risks for Agriculture
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Environmental Conditions for Agriculture
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Water supply・Temperature Change 水・温度
Essential Elements N, P, Others 元素
Status of Soil
土壌
農薬
Agrichemicals such as Insecticide or Herbicide
Genetically Modified Organisms 遺伝子組換
Environmental Changes to be considered
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Change accompanied by Climate Change
Limitation of Natural Resources 資源限界
Water/Soil Change caused by Human Activities
Feelings of Consumers 消費者 水・土の変化 41
Amount of Stream Flow=Fresh Water 2081 to 2100
河川流量＝淡水量
From IPCC AR5 2013
DRY
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Issues in Locations
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Location and Availability of Water
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Stream Flow will be affected by Climate Change
Ground Water has different Characteristics
Turkey, Spain, Portugal, Italy will be dry.
In Japan, not so much difference.
Temperature will affect most of suitable agri.
products. 農作物の地域への適性・不適正 特産物
Special Products in the area will be affected.
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Apples in Nagano -> Pairs in Nagano?
Grapes and Wineries in Europe already receive some
changes. Germany will be the best place? ドイツ産?
In most cases, Some kinds of Adaptations are required.
何らかの適応策が必須
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Water Dependence on Snow or Ice of
Glacier - High Mountains 山岳地帯農業
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Snow or Ice in winter play role of Reservoir
雪は貯水池
In spring, water from snow melt used for
agriculture
Climate Change -> Early snow melting in 春には水不足
winter -> No water reservoir for Agriculture
ヒマラヤ・チベット
This tendencies already apparent in
Himalayan or Tibetan Region and similar in
Andean Area
アンデスも
Adaptation : To construct new water
貯水池建設は必須
reservoirs for Agriculture
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Fragility is high in water supply in High Mountains
≒ 2℃
Important to keep less than 2 degree
≒ ５℃
2℃程度以下に抑えたい
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Fertilizer Issue
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Nitrogen Fertilizer
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Harbor-Bosch Process’ success to make
Ammonia from Nitrogen and Hydrogen
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肥料の問題
窒素肥料
ハーバーボッシュ法
Huge Energy Consumption
More than 1% of Global Energy Consumption
Side Effects of Excessive Use=Over-fertilization
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Pollutant to Underground Water
地下水汚染
Eutrophication(Nutrient Enrichment) of Lake and
River Water
富栄養化
Increase N2O(one of GHG) emission from Patty
Fields
一酸化二窒素＝温室効果ガス
MUST: Appropriate Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer
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The amount of Nitrogen Fixed by Harbor-Bosch Process (ton)
20世紀の人口爆発の原因は穀物単収（単位面積当たり
140,000,000
の収穫量）の増加にある
120,000,000
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100,000,000
4
単収
(t/ha)
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フランスの小麦 出展 Michel & FAO
Harbor demonstrated the process
in the summer of 1909.
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
2
20,000,000
0
1800
0
19401850
1950
1960
19001970
川島博之氏提供
チリ硝石の代替
第一次世界大戦
Ammonia was first manufactured
on an industrial scale in 1913.
And replaced "Chile saltpetre“
for munitions used in World
War 1 (1914-1918).
1980
2000
2010 2050
2020
1950 1990 2000
So called global population explosion depended on
the increase in grain production, which is expressed
in unit crop (t/ha).
French Wheat 出展 Michel & FAO
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単収の増加は５倍
4
単収
(t/ha)
6
2
0
1800
1850
1900
1950
川島博之氏提供
2000
2050
Phosphorous Fertilizer
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P as Phosphate
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リン肥
リン酸という物質
Inevitable For All Plants: To be used Nucleic
Acids, ATP and membrane lipids. 核酸・細胞膜脂質
Guano from Nauru, Depleted : Guano is a
highly effective fertilizer due to its
exceptionally high content of nitrogen,
phosphate, and potassium, three nutrients
essential for plant growth
P : Exist as a major component of the Earth.
No.11 in the scale of abundance. Pは多く存在
F : Coexisting F may be a problem. F is No.13
in the scale of natural abundance. フッ素は有害物
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Natural Abundance of Elements, Top 17
１位 酸素
Oxygen
４６％
２位 ケイ素
Silicon
２８％
３位 アルミニウム Aluminum
８％
４位 鉄
Iron
５％
５位 カルシウム
Calcium
４％
６位 ナトリウム
Sodium
３％
７位 カリウム
Potassium
２％
８位 マグネシウム Magnesium
２％
９位 チタン
Titanium
０．５％
１０位 水素
Hydrogen
０．１５％
１１位 リン
Phosphorus
０．１％
１２位 マンガン
Manganese
０．１％
１３位 フッ素
Fluorine
０．１％
１４位 バリウム
Barium
０．０５％
１５位 炭素
Carbon
０．０３％
１６位 ストロンチウム Strontium
０．０３％
１７位 イオウ
Sulfur
０．０３％
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Sustainability of Soil
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土壌は問題か
Maintenance and improvement of soil quality in
continuous cropping systems is critical to
sustaining agricultural productivity and
environmental quality. 連作をする場合には確かに問題
Asian Rainforest are old and poor in minerals
whereas the soils of the western Amazon
(Ecuador and Peru) and volcanic areas of Costa
Rica are young and mineral rich. 地殻の古さによる
Change in Rainfall may affect the status of soil,
i.e. mineral contents and contents of organic
components.
降雨の状況が変わると土壌へ影響
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Shortage in Food Supply? 食糧不足は？
1. Insufficient Agriculture Field 生産農地不足
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More than 1-2m of Sea Level Rise
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国はどこ
Production of Wheat and other crops will decrease.
Local Temperature Change
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Large Scale of Loss of Agricultural Land in several
countries
農地・居住地の喪失
Resident Area may be lost. -> Environmental
Refugees -> Decrease in Food Supply
Draught in Turkey, Spain, USA, Australia
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2ｍの海面上昇
温度変化はどこでも
Change in Suitable Crops -> Decrease in Supply
Fields optimum to certain crop move to colder
area. Is it possible for farmers to move?
栽培最適地の北方向への移動
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2. Severe safety requirement by
消費者の要求
citizens/consumers
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GMO(genetically modified organisms) Issues
for Soy, Corn etc. 遺伝子組換作物
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As Japanese consumers, everybody wants to
have “Zero Risk” environment without any
Agrichemicals.
日本で農薬をゼロにせよ？
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Is it Safe? Yes, safe if eaten. 食べるのは安全
Any environmental adverse side effects?
環境は？
Any abrupt change in productivity of crop? 突然変異は？
Yield may be go down.
生産量は下がる
Even if Agrichemicals are safe for human, but
is it safe for insects to help pollination?
ミツバチのような受粉支援の昆虫は？
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Adaptation with Skilled Forecast
予測力と適応力
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Average Rain Fall = Slight Increase
Temperature will go up to some extent
Agricultural Suitability of certain place will be
changed, but the other place will become
good land for agriculture.
CO2 concentration increase =Some fertilizing
二酸化炭素の施肥効果
effect
Area of farming land is about half of land
使用可能な農地
suitable for agriculture.
候補の半分を使用中
If enough farmers in the new agricultural 農民の数！
land, global supply of food will be enough. 多分大丈夫
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It is a good strategy
to have long perspectives
of the global change
as possible as we can,
if we try to prepare for
unexpected changes of
local situation.
想定外の変化に対して準備をしておくこと
長期的な地球レベルの変化を予測することが重要
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Theoretical Goal
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理論上の解決法
“To realize Steady State of the Earth in
2100.”
定常状態を実現する
Three Conditions
そのための三条件
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1:Renewable Resources : Use only the
amount naturally renewed. 再生可能資源：再生の範囲内
2:Non Renewable Resources : Use No Energy
resources. Recycle all Metals & Minerals
perfectly using Renewable Energy. 地下資源を使うな
完全リサイクル
3:Environmental Pollutant : Release only the
amount within the capacity of the Earth.
汚染物：地球の処理能力以内
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More Detailed Description by
Herman Daily in 1971 ハーマン・デイリーの原則
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1. Renewable Resources: Do not use
renewable resources at higher speeds than
the speed of regeneration. 再生速度以内で利用
Good for : Fishery, Forestry, etc. 漁業、林業など
3. Wastes: Discard wastes Only at a speed
less than the speed of reduction by the
capacity of the Earth. 地球の処理能力以内で廃棄
Including “Nuclear Spent Fuel” 使用済み核燃料も
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Continued
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枯渇性資源は、再生可能資源に変換せよ
2. Non-Renewable Resources: Do not use
non-renewable resources at higher
velocities than the velocity of conversion
of non-renewable resources into
renewable resources.

= We have to use a part of non-renewable
resources such as oil to construct devices or
equipment for renewable energy such as
wind and photo voltaic, which can produce
more energy than non-renewable energy
consumed.
例：石油を使うなら、その一部で自然エネルギー機器を作り
石油より多くの再生可能エネルギーを生み出せ
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Practical Goal

現実的な分かりやすいゴール
“ Use only the Energy from
renewable resources in 2100”
再生可能エネルギーだけ！ の２１００年
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This will be 90% achievement to the
これで90%目標達成
theoretical goal.
It means the life of natural resources will
be extended about 10 times. 資源の寿命が１０倍伸びる
It can be said,
“Human Life Reach A New Stage”.
人類は新しいステージに到達したと言える
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Energy Innovation in the Past
The 5th will be the Ultimate One
人類史上のエネルギーのイノベーション ５番目は究極
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Energy Innovation from the view point of
Human History
1st＝Started to Use Fire 火 500 thousand Years
2nd＝Use Fossil Fuel 化石燃料
from 1800
電気
3rd＝Use Electricity
from 1880
4th＝Other than Fossil Fuel
原子力
＝Nuclear Energy
in 1943
＝PV cells, Wind full operation not yet
再生可能エネルギーは未達成

5th＝Steady State
定常状態の達成
2100 or so
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Energy Balance of the Earth
Solar
Energy
Moon
Global Energy Consump.
Reflection
x
To Space
Tidal
Absorbed
Geothermal
Kinetic Energy
Photosynthesis
地球上のエネルギー使用量の１００００倍が供給されている
100% Renewable Energy Scenario by WWF
http://www.wwf.or.jp/activities/lib/pdf_climate/green-energy/WWF_EnergyVisionReport_sm.pdf
2050 = too early to be realized. Need New Social Systems.
No Technologies available so far to utilize unstable electricity.
2050年は早過ぎる。不安定な電力を使いこなす技術、社会制度が不足
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Conclusions

No Possibility of Extinction of Homo-sapience in
spite of Limitation of the Earth.
地球の限界のために人類が絶滅することは無さそう

Local Sustainability will be affected by global
environmental changes including climate change,
limitation of some resources and loss of biological
diversities. 地域の持続可能性はグローバルな持続可能性の影
響を受ける。気候変動、資源の有限性、そして、生物
多様性の喪失など

Crisis can be averted by prediction and
management of environmental risks.
適切な予測と環境リスクの管理で危機は回避できる

Possible solutions for global environmental issues
must be discussed and proposed. 何が起きるか不確実！
グローバルな環境問題の解決法を提案することが必須
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