Transcript McCain_EcoSeries_Fall2016x

Thursday 22 September • 4PM • WDFS (WFB) 258
Wildlife’s EcoSeries Seminar
The Importance of Population Dynamics, Body Size, and
Activity Patterns to Climate Change Responses
Model predictions of extinction risks from anthropogenic climate
change are dire, but still overly simplistic. To reliably predict at-risk
species we need to know which species are currently responding,
which are not, and what traits are mediating the responses. Which
mammals are and are not responding to climate change is mediated
predominantly by body size and activity times (phylogenetic
multivariate logistic regressions, p < 0.0001). Large mammals respond
more, for example, an elk is 27 times more likely to respond to climate
change than a shrew. Obligate diurnal and nocturnal mammals are
more than twice as likely to respond as mammals with flexible activity
times (p < 0.0001). Additionally, the rush to assess species’ responses
to anthropogenic climate change has underestimated the importance
of interannual population variability. Using population simulations
across a realistic, empirically-based gradient in population variability, I
will show that the frequency and magnitude of population peaks and
troughs greatly impact the accuracy of our climate change response
measurements regardless of taxonomic group.
Dr. Christy McCain
Associate Professor, U. of Colorado, Boulder
Curator of Vertebrates, CU Natural History Museum
Department of Wildlife