Transcript PowerPoint-presentatie

Developing new statistics for
climate change analysis
Sjoerd Schenau
Content
• Organisational setting Climate change statistics in the
Netherlands
• New statistics for climate change
 Footprint analysis
• Conclusions
2
Organisational setting
Statistics Netherlands (CBS)
SEEA
System of EnvironmentalEconomic Accounting
Environmental
Statistics
Emission Register
(70 experts from 10
institutes, including
Statistics Netherlands)
Dissemination
 Official statistics
at www.cbs.nl
 Emission data
at www.prtr.nl
 Policy indicators at
Environmental Data
Compendium, e.g.,
www.compendiumvoordeleefomgeving.nl/
indicatoren/en0165-Greenhouse-gasemissions.html?i=41-205
3
New statistics for climate change
•
•
•
•
Quarterly CO2 emissions
CO2 emission permits
Mitigation expenditure
Carbon footprint
4
New statistics for climate change
•
•
•
•
Quarterly CO2 emissions
CO2 emission permits
Mitigation expenditure
Carbon footprint
Source data:
• Monthly energy data
• National accounts data
• Other
Changes in CO2 emissions, second quarter of 2015
5
New statistics for climate change
•
•
•
•
100
Emission permit database
Dutch emission authority
Quarterly CO2 emissions
CO2 emission permits
Mitigation expenditure
Carbon footprint
Mton CO2
http://www.emissieautoriteit.nl/
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2008
2009
2010
2011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
80
1 Opening stock 1 January
86.087.847
87.856.973
100.974.058
76.801.532
83.703.076
84.974.375
88.831.673
168.951.989
191.515.413
170.119.571
161.845.444
117.438.701
119.167.730
113.375.936
113.861.496
2 Allocated free of charge (grandfathered)
60
3 Purchased - permits (allow ances)
Of which free permits
2)
Of which non-free permits
40
Of which from ROW
3)
4)
4 Purchased - credits
Of which purchased
20
Of which from domestic projects
Of which from ROW
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Allocated CO2 allowances
Excess CO2 allowances
Shortfall CO2 allowances
-
51.513.288
72.347.683
52.743.635
47.983.948
58.791.531
50.333.828
48.028.922
79.229.517
30.841.275
25.789.984
25.822.587
43.313.696
-
-
-
-
27.950.256
24.543.844
22.206.335
35.915.821
180.136.186
178.637.082
173.362.339
156.197.411
5)
Of which free and non-free permits
127.074.283
108.276.031
113.609.251
108.641.695
53.061.903
70.361.051
59.753.088
47.555.716
31.525.560
46.462.897
40.534.779
49.640.885
Of which to other residents
16.539.418
23.754.984
22.524.463
27.528.136
Of which to ROW
14.986.142
22.707.913
18.010.316
22.112.749
5 Sold - permits (allow ances)
0
4.000.000
111.941.342
Of which to ROW
4)
6 Sold - credits
7 Losses (cancelled permits)
6)
8 Surrendered, permits, credits, etc.
9 Closing stock
-
20
79.698.681
83.512.670
87.856.973
100.974.058
-
6
111.941.822
81.071.420
63.633
84.616.050
137.098.673
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New statistics for climate change
•
•
•
•
Quarterly CO2 emissions
CO2 emission permits
Mitigation expenditure
Carbon footprint
• Government reports
• Government statistics
• Environmental
expenditure accounts
Mitigation expenditure government, percentage of GDP
More info:
http://www.cbs.nl/nlNL/menu/themas/natuurmilieu/publicaties/milieurekening
en/publicaties/archief/2012/envir
onmental-accounts-2011pub.htm
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
7
New statistics for climate change
•
•
•
•
Quarterly CO2 emissions
CO2 emission permits
Mitigation expenditure
Carbon footprint
More info:
http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/themas/natuurmilieu/publicaties/milieurekeningen/publicaties/a
rchief/2013/2012-environmental-accounts-of-thenetherlands-2011-pub.htm
Consumption and production based CO2 emissions, 2009
8
Footprint analysis
• Footprints are increasingly based on IO/SEEA combinations
• Variety of Multi-regional input-output models (MRIO)
• Footprint estimates vary significantly
Question:
What role should NSI’s play in footprint analysis?
Answer?
Single-country National Accounts Consistent (SNAC)
footprint
9
Statistical community
• Many different NSI’s and international organisations
active in footprint calculations
• There is wide range of methods being used
NSIs often use simpler models
• Mostly carbon footprint
• Clear interest in additional breakdowns
Household characteristics such as income
• Dissemination practices of the institutes show that the
results are not always presented as “official statistics”
10
Overview of MRIO databases that are currently
publically available
GTAP
EXIOBASE
WIOD
Eora
Acronym
Global
Project
Institute
Purdue University
Years
1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000
2001, 2004, 2007 (years
are not comparable)
1995-2011
1990-2009
Prices of
previous year
Countries/
Regions
-
-
1995-2009
-
15-129 (depends on year)
43
(27 EU, 16 non-EU)
(95% of the global GDP)
130 industries
40
(27 EU and 12 non-EU)
(80% of world GDP in 2006)
35 industries
187
Energy use / several energy carriers
Water consumption
Land use
Emissions of greenhouse gases
Air pollutants
Resource use/extraction
Generation and treatment of various
types of waste
Greenhouse gases
Air pollution
Water use
Ecological Footprint
Trade
Analysis EXIOPOL: Externality data and World Input-Output Database
input-output tools for policy
analysis
EXIOBASE: FP6 project (EXIOPOL) FP7 project lead by the University of University of Sydney
led by FEEM Database created by Groningen
NTNU, TNO, SERI, CML
57 industries
Number of
industries
Environmental Greenhouse gases (CO2, Emissions (56)
NO2, CH4)
Materials (96)
data
Energy use
Land use (split
ecological zone)
-
Land use (15)
agro- Water use (14)
11
100-500 industries
Academic work
– Difference between MRIOs:
‐ Aggregation (industries and/or countries)
‐ Construction method: IO based, SUT based, or trade
based
‐ Assumptions RoW or ITMs
‐ Emission data (modeled or not)
– Aim of MRIOs
‐ Information about global developments
‐ No claim to be 100% correct at national level
‐ Focus on consistent method (rather than best country
data)
12
Carbon footprints for the Netherlands
from various MRIO databases
350
Mton CO2
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990
1995
PNAS
NCC
Data provided by
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Glen Peters and NoriYamano
2000
ESSD
EORA
2005
GRAM
2010
WIOD
OECD
Year on year change in the DutchCarbon
footprint: WIOD and EORA
14
Reconciling academic and statistical work
– Growing policy interest in footprints, but no clear answers
– MRIOs have set the standard, but outside NSIs capabilities
• Labour intensive
• Assumptions
– MRIOs vs. official statistics
• Always inconsistent due to integration/balancing
required:
• Trade asymmetries
– Can we reconcile statistical and academic work in area of
footprint analysis?
15
A SNAC footprint
– Produce a footprint, based on MRIO, that is consistent to
official statistics of the Netherlands
‐ Single-country National Accounts consistent (SNAC)
– Main approach: “Adjust WIOD to be consistent to Dutch
data”
– Why WIOD?
‐ Transparancy
‐ Time series availibility
– Gain insight why results could be so different
16
SNAC-Method for the Netherlands
– Follow WIOD procedure, but
- with impoved data
• Trade in goods: re‐exports microdata
• Trade in services: Confidential data
• Expand SUT from 35 to 72 industries (+official valuation
layers)
• Official SEEA accounts
- …..and keeping the Dutch data fixed
17
Results: SNAC vs. WIOD
2009
Total Footprint
Domestic indirect emissions
Domestic direct emissions
Total Domestic
Total Foreign
Resident emissions
SNAC-footprint WIOD
MtCO2
MtCO2 %
202
210 -4%
80
71 11%
40
39 5%
120
109 9%
83
101 -22%
205
Overall difference in footprint: 4%
Mainly due to lower foreign emissions
NL becomes net exporter of emissions
18
Carbon footprint per capita including
various estimates for the Netherlands
Source: CBS 2013
19
Import emissions allocated to country of
origin, 2009
20
Indirect carbon footprint (2009)
allocated to consumption categories
21
Conclusions
1. MRIOs are produced for global questions while a SNAC
footprint is more relevant for national policy makers
2. SNAC makes a difference! (at least for the Netherlands)
3. Need for IO and SEEA data
4. Need for enhanced cooperation
‐ Between statistical offices
‐ Between MRIO producers
‐ Statistical and academic community
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