Transcript AFE 2013 NPSJan30x

Climate Change Planning in
Alaska’s National Parks
How can National Park Service managers best protect
the natural and cultural resources and values within
their jurisdiction in the face of climate change?
1
Overall Project Summary

Changing climatic conditions are rapidly impacting
environmental, social, and economic conditions in and around
National Park System areas in Alaska.

Alaska park managers need to better understand possible
climate change trends in order to better manage Arctic,
subarctic, and coastal ecosystems and human uses.

NPS and the University of Alaska’s Scenarios Network for Alaska
Planning (UAF-SNAP) are collaborating on a three-year project
that will help Alaska NPS managers, cooperating personnel, and
key stakeholders to develop plausible climate change scenarios
for all NPS areas in Alaska.
2
Scenario Planning vs. Forecasting

Scenarios overcome the tendency to predict, allowing us to see multiple
possibilities for the future

Forecast Planning
 One Future
-10%
+10%
What we know today
Scenario Planning
 Multiple Futures

Uncertainties
What we know today
3
Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group
© 2010 Monitor Company Group
Corporations that derived value
from scenarios

Shell: pioneered the commercial use of scenarios;
prepared for and navigated the oil crises of the
1970s, and the opening of the Russian market in
the 1990s

Morgan Stanley Japan: identified looming
problems in Asian financial markets in the late
1990s. Held back on retail investments, and
engaged fully with governments and regulators.

UPS: in the late 1990s, used scenarios to identify
and explore the powerful forces of globalization and
consumer power. As a result, made significant
investments (like Mail Boxes Etc) that enabled them
to directly reach the end consumer.

Microsoft: Amidst great uncertainty, Microsoft used
scenarios (including early indicators) to provide
signals as to which platforms/technologies/channels
would prevail.
4
One corporation that… didn’t
Eastman Kodak




Failure to diversify adequately
Did not correctly read emerging markets
Acted slowly, waiting for “perfect” products
Complacency
http://www.economist.com/node/21542796
5
Background Information:
Climate models and scenarios planning
6
Background Information:
Reconstruction of summer Arctic temperatures [Kaufman et al., 2009, Science]
Background Information:
Variability and uncertainty
Alaska annual
temperature
anomalies
PDO Index
Pacific Decadal
Oscillation
Index
Background Information:
SNAP data
Monthly temperature projections for Anaktuvuk Pass
A1B (mid-range) scenario)
Background Information:
SNAP data
Projected monthly precipitation for Anaktuvuk Pass
Mean annual soil temp.
(2 m depth)

2000-2009

2050-2059
Background Information:
Simulated AB/Year
Historical AB/Year
BackCast
ECHAM5
40000
20000
0
cells burn
60000
80000
AreaBurn/Year:
43
Simulated annual burn area
in AlaskaReplicate
(ALFRESCO)
1900
1950
2000
Year
2050
2100
Climate Change in Alaska:
the bottom line

Change is happening, and will
continue for decades regardless
of mitigation efforts.

Key tipping points may be
crossed, e.g fire, permafrost,
sea ice, biome shift, glacial loss.

High uncertainty results in
divergent possible futures for
many important variables.
alaskarenewableenergy.org
www.nenananewslink.com
13
Explaining Scenarios: A Basic
GBN Scenario Creation Process
This diagram describes
the 5 key steps required
in any scenario planning
process
What is the
strategic issue or
decision that we
wish to address?
What critical
forces will
affect the
future of our
issue?
How do we combine and
synthesize these forces to
create a small number of
alternative stories?
As new
information
unfolds, which
scenarios seem
most valid?
Does this affect
our decisions
and actions?
What are the
implications of these
scenarios for our
strategic issue, and what
actions should we take
in light of them?
14
Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group
© 2010 Monitor Company Group
Step one: Orient
What is the strategic issue or decision that we wish to
address?
How can NPS managers best preserve (protect?)
the natural and cultural resources and values
within their jurisdiction in the face of climate
change?
To answer this challenge, we
need to explore a broader
question:
Gates of the Arctic National Park
photo credits: Tom Moran, Jay Cable, Amy
Marsh
How will climate change
effects impact the
landscapes within which
management units are
placed over the next 50 to
100 years?
Explaining Scenarios: A Basic
GBN Scenario Creation Process
This diagram describes
the 5 key steps required
in any scenario planning
process
What is the
strategic issue or
decision that we
wish to address?
What critical
forces will
affect the
future of our
issue?
How do we combine and
synthesize these forces to
create a small number of
alternative stories?
As new
information
unfolds, which
scenarios seem
most valid?
Does this affect
our decisions
and actions?
What are the
implications of these
scenarios for our
strategic issue, and what
actions should we take
in light of them?
16
Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group
© 2010 Monitor Company Group
Step Two: Explore
What critical forces (drivers) will affect the future of our issue?
CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
Critical forces
generally have
unusually high
impact and
unusually high
uncertainty
BIOREGION: ______________
Over the next 50 – 100 years, what will happen to . . . ?
We are aiming to
create scenarios
that are:
Challenging
Divergent
Plausible
ERT-HLY 2010
Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group
Copyright © 2010 Monitor Company Group, L.P. — Confidential
1
Relevant
© 2010 Monitor Company Group
17
Arctic Park Units
Climate
Variable
Projected Change
by 2050
Projected Change
by 2100
Patterns of Change
Confidence
Temperature
+2.5°C ±1.5°C
+5°C ±2°C
More pronounced in N
and autumn-winter
>95% for increase
Precipitation
(rain and snow)
Winter snowfall
Autumn rain and snow
Winter snowfall
Autumn rain and snow
Increased % falls as rain
in shoulder seasons
High uncertainty in
timing of snow onset
and melt
Freeze-up Date
5-10 days later
10-20 days later
Largest change
near coast
>90%
SNAP/UAF
Length of Ice-free Season
(rivers, lakes)
↑ 7-10 days
↑ 14-21 days
Largest change
near coast
>90%
IPCC (2007);
SNAP/UAF
Length of Growing Season
↑ 10–20 days
↑ 20–40 days
Largest change
near coast
>90%
IPCC (2007);
SNAP/UAF
River and Stream Temps
↑ 1–3°C
↑ 2–4°C
Earlier breakup,
higher summer temps
>90%
Kyle & Brabets
(2001)
Water Availability
↓ 0–20%
↓ 10–40%
Longer summer,
thicker active layer
>66%
varies by region
Relative Humidity
0% ±10% ↑ or ↓
0% ±15% ↑ or ↓
Absolute humidity
increases
50%
as likely as not
↑ 2–4%
↑ 4–8%
More pronounced in
winter & spring
>90% for increase
Abatzoglou & Brown
Uncertain
Uncertain
Major effect on Alaska
temps in cold season
High degree of
natural variation
Hartmann & Wendler
(2005)
Extreme Events:
Temperature
3-6x more warm events;
3-5x fewer cold events
5-8x more warm events;
8-12x fewer cold events
↑ warm events,
↓ cold events
>95% likely
Abatzoglou & Brown;
Timlin & Walsh (2007)
Extreme Events:
Precipitation
Change of –20% to +50%
Change of –20% to +50%
↑ winter
↓ spring
Uncertain
Abatzoglou & Brown
↑ frequency/intensity
↑ frequency/intensity
Increase
>66%
Wind Speed
PDO
Extreme Events: Storms
Source
IPCC (2007);
SNAP/UAF
AMAP/SWIPA;
SNAP/UAF
SNAP/UAF;
Wilderness Society
SNAP/UAF
Loehman (2011)
Climate Change Scenario Drivers
TEMPERATURE AND LINKED VARIABLES:
thaw, freeze, season length, extreme days, permafrost, ice,
freshwater temperature
PRECIPITATION AND LINKED VARIABLES:
rain, snow, water availability, storms and flooding, humidity
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO):
definition, effects, and predictability
SEA LEVEL:
erosion also linked to sea ice and storms
OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
19
CLIMATE SCENARIOS
BIOREGION: ______________
1
4
Combining two
selected drivers
creates four
possible futures
Driver 2
Driver 1
3
2
20
CLIMATE SCENARIOS
BIOREGION: ______________
Pick drivers with
a wide range of
possible
outcomes
Select drivers
with a high
enough likelihood
to be convincing
to stakeholders
Avoid pairs of drivers
that are too similar –
think of the effects of
crossing them with one
another
Choose drivers that
impact several
sectors, e.g tourism,
subsistence, and
wildlife, not just one
Select drivers with
effects in most of
the parks in the
network
Choose drivers
that lead to the
effects that are
most critical
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Climate Effects
Climate effects are the outcomes of the critical
forces or drivers, as expressed by significant
changes in particular parks.
Points to consider include:






Time frame (20 years? 100 years?)
Uncertainty (of both driver and effect)
Severity of effect (and reversibility)
Scope: what parks, who is impacted?
Repercussions: what is the story?
Feedback to policy
22
Climate Effects
Sector
Subsector
Greenhouse
gases
Potential Effects to Resources, Operations, and People
Increased carbon storage where forests spread; decreased where drought causes loss of forest or where fire and permafrost
release methane and CO 2.
Shrub expansion into deglaciated areas and new vegetation = carbon sequestration
ATMOSPHERE
Air Temperature Air temperature increases ~1°F per decade; greatest change in the north and in winter.
Average spring/fall temps shift from below freezing to above freezing, changing freeze/thaw balance.
Precipitation
Average annual precipitation increases. Relative amounts of snow, ice or rain change.
Many areas experience drying conditions despite increased precipitation.
More freezing rain events affect foraging success for wildlife, travel safety, etc.
Avalanche hazards increase with rising precipitation and rising winter temps.
Storms
Lightning and lightning-ignited fires continue to increase.
Storm and wave impacts increase in northern Alaska where land-fast sea ice forms later.
Air quality
More smoke from longer and more intense fire seasons.
Contaminants
Increased contaminants and shifting contaminant distribution.
Snow/ice
Later onset of freeze-up and snowfall + earlier spring snowmelt and break-up.
Arctic snow cover declines with higher air temperatures and earlier spring thaw.
CRYOSPHERE
Lack of snow cover leads to deeper freezing of water in the ground or rivers.
Cultural resources are exposed as snow and ice patches melt and recede.
Glaciers
Most glaciers diminish as warming continues, though a few are still advancing.
Glacial outwash affects aquatic productivity and forms deposits in shallow water.
Glacial lakes fail more frequently, creating risk of flash floods and debris flows.
LITHOSPHERE HYDROSPHERE
Surging glaciers could block rivers and fjords, resulting in severe flooding.
Ice roads
Reduced winter transportation affects opportunities for travel and subsistence.
Permafrost
Mercury & other pollutants are released into aquatic environments as permafrost thaws.
Freshwater
Stream flows from melting glaciers increase and then decrease over time.
Ponds shrink as ground ice thaws or thermokarst drainage occurs in permafrost areas.
Drainage from thawing waste and sewage dumps contaminates rural water supplies.
Groundwater
NPS and SNAP
summarized a
wide range of
potential effects
of climate
change, based
on the best
available
modeling,
observations,
and published
literature.
Groundwater supplies dependent on seasonal glacial recharge become less predictable.
Ground stability More roads and infrastructure fail or require repairs due to permafrost thaw.
Landslides and mud flows increase on steep slopes. Rapid glacial retreat and permafrost thaw leave steep and unstable slopes
in valleys and fjords.
Burials and other remains are exposed as cultural sites thaw and erode.
Soil
Soil moisture declines due to rising soil temperature, thawing permafrost, and drainage.
23
Climate Effects
BIOSPHERE - vegetation and fire
Vegetati on
Ecol ogi cal "ti ppi ng poi nts " are l i kel y to res ul t i n rapi d change, when condi ti ons exceed phys i cal or phys i ol ogi cal thres hol ds
(e.g., thaw, drought, water temperature)
Ecol ogi cal "ti ppi ng poi nts " are l i kel y to res ul t i n rapi d change, when condi ti ons exceed phys i cal or phys i ol ogi cal thres hol ds
(e.g., thaw, drought, water temperature)
Increas ed agri cul tural producti on i n Al as ka becaus e of l onger growi ng s eas on.
Potenti al l arge-s cal e s hi ft of tundra to s hrubs , to coni fers , to deci duous fores ts or gras s .
Atypi cal outbreaks of pes ts and di s eas es affect nati ve s peci es and i ncreas e fi re hazards .
Invas i ve exoti c pl ant s peci es and nati ve s peci es from other areas expand thei r ranges .
Vegetati on expands i nto degl aci ated coas tal areas , l es s i nto hi gher el evati on areas .
Tree s peci es and vegetati on cl as s es s hi ft as s peci es of l ower l ati tudes and al ti tudes expand.
Fores ts
Bl ack s pruce may expand wi th warmi ng – or contract as permafros t s oi l s thaw and fi res i ncreas e.
Mature fores ts and “ol d growth” decl i ne becaus e of drought, i ns ects , di s eas e, and fi re.
Fi re
Model s s how a warmer cl i mate l eads to l arger, more frequent and i ntens e fi res .
Wi l dl and fi re hazards i ncreas e, affecti ng communi ti es and i s ol ated property owners .
Fi re-rel ated l andcover and s oi l changes res ul t i n vegetati on s hi fts , permafros t thaw, etc.
Wi l dl i fe
Changes to terres tri al and aquati c s peci es occur as ranges s hi ft, contract, or expand, affecti ng vi s i tor experi ence and
s ubs i s tence throughout the parks .
Parks and refuges may not be abl e to protect current s peci es wi thi n thei r boundari es .
Some s peci es wi l l s uffer s evere l os es . So far, the greates t l os s es acros s al l parks have been rodents , bats , and carni vores .
Predator-prey rel ati ons hi ps may change i n unexpected ways .
Mi gratory routes and des ti nati ons wi l l change (e.g., wetl ands , open tundra, s now patches ).
Bi rds
Arcti c and al pi ne bi rds ’ breedi ng habi tats reduced as trees and s hrubs encroach on tundra.
BIOSPHERE - wildlife
Geese could lose almost half of their breeding habitat due to change from tundra to taiga and boreal forest.
Predati on on ground nes ti ng bi rds coul d i ncreas e i f prey (l emmi ng) abundance decl i nes .
Popul ati on cycl es of bi rds and thei r prey coul d be out of s ync due to hi gher temperatures .
Cari bou/
Rei ndeer
Cari bou and rei ndeer heal th are affected by changes i n weather, forage, and i ns ects and pes ts .
Earl i er green-up coul d i mprove cari bou cal f s urvi val becaus e of more avai l abl e forage.
Cari bou may s uffer heavy l os s es i f rai n events prevent s ucces s ful feedi ng duri ng col d weather.
Moos e
Shi fts i n fores ts coul d mean l es s habi tat for cari bou, but more habi tat for moos e.
Cl i mate change coul d hi nder moos e cal f bi rth s ucces s and moos e cal f s urvi val .
Smal l Mammal s Fi re may create new burrowi ng habi tat and forage growth to hel p vol e popul ati ons .
Les s s now cover reduces s urvi val of s ubni vi an s peci es , due to i ncreas ed predati on & col d s tres s .
Fi s heri es
Invertebrates
Subs i s tence
Touri s m
OTHER
Participants
reviewed,
discussed, and
amended these
effects tables
prior to the
workshop.
They also voted
on the relative
importance of
each potential
effect.
General
Wi l dernes s
New s tream habi tats become avai l abl e for fi s h and wi l dl i fe as gl aci ers decl i ne.
Some s al mon waters may become uns ui tabl e for mi grati on, s pawni ng and i ncubati on.
Fi s h di s eas es i ncreas e wi th ri s i ng s tream temperatures .
Fi s h habi tats i n permafros t areas are degraded by s l umps and s edi ment i nput i nto ri vers .
Ice worm popul ati ons decl i ne l ocal l y as gl aci er habi tats mel t.
Exoti c pes ts expand from warmer areas , and endemi c pes ts expand as hos t s peci es are s tres s ed.
Al tered ani mal mi grati on patterns make s ubs i s tence hunti ng more chal l engi ng.
Sea i ce changes make hunti ng for mari ne mammal s l es s predi ctabl e & more dangerous .
Managi ng new s peci es and i ntens i fi ed management of nati ve s peci es may be needed.
Longer s ummer s eas ons i ncreas e touri s m. Some vi s i tor acti vi ti es i ncreas e, others decl i ne.
Lands cape-l evel changes affect vi s i tor experi ences and acces s , vi s i tor us e patterns s hi ft.
Large-s cal e phys i cal and bi ol ogi cal changes acros s broad l ands capes affect abundance and condi ti on of wi l dernes s as s oci ated
ources
aci ers
, wi l dl
i fe,
s routes
, ..) s uch as natural nes s , wi l d-untamed areas wti hout permanent
Changi
ng bires
ophys
i cal (e.g.,
l andsglcape
affect
key
wiacces
l dernes
s val ues
24
TEK
opportuni
ti esti for
s ol
i tude,
etc.knowl edge become l es s predi cti ve and l es s rel i abl e.
Us
es of tradi
onal
ecol
ogi cal
Devpmt
More natural res ource devel opment i n Al as ka wi th i ncreas i ng gl obal demand.
Fuel and energy pri ces i ncreas e s ubs tanti al l y wi th carbon mi ti gati on meas ures . Trans porti ng fuel s to remote l ocati ons becomes
Western Arctic case study
26
Mean summer season length. These maps show the projected number of days
between the date on which the running mean temperature crosses the freezing
point in the spring, and date on which when that point is crossed again in the fall.
27
The above-freezing season is likely to be up to 40 days longer by the end of this
century.
Ranking of scenario drivers
Bering Land Bridge
Climate variable/driver
Uncertainty
Importance
Votes
Temperature
M
H
4
Precipitation
M
H
Relative Humidity
M
L
Length of growing season
M
M-H
3
Ocean acidification
H
H
1
Sea ice extent (decline)
M
H
7
Extreme weather events (severity
and frequency)
H
H
4
Coastal permafrost degradation
H
H
3
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
H
H
1
Sea level rise
L
H
3
Change in hydrologic regime
H
M-H
2
Length of ice-free season
M
H
M-H
H
Wind pattern shifts
L
M
Snowpack
M
H
M-H
M
M
H
Freeze-up date
Fire
Interior permafrost degradation
2
For the purposes of
scenario planning, the
goal was to select two
drivers with high
importance (in order to
maximize the relevance
of resulting scenarios)
and high uncertainty (in
order to maximize
divergence).
L, M, H = low, medium, high.
Votes reflect how many
group members selected
each driver, given three
votes per person. The
highlighted drivers were
selected for the BELA
28
scenarios.
Explaining Scenarios: A Basic
GBN Scenario Creation Process
This diagram describes
the 5 key steps required
in any scenario planning
process
What is the
strategic issue or
decision that we
wish to address?
What critical
forces will
affect the
future of our
issue?
How do we combine and
synthesize these forces to
create a small number of
alternative stories?
As new
information
unfolds, which
scenarios seem
most valid?
Does this affect
our decisions
and actions?
What are the
implications of these
scenarios for our
strategic issue, and what
actions should we take
in light of them?
29
Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group
© 2010 Monitor Company Group
Primary matrix of drivers, BELA group
.
+5°C/8°C by
2050/2100
“Overrun”
”Hotwash”
A
B
Tempe
rature
Current severity,
frequency
Extreme Precipitation and Storm Events
“Contemporary
Change”
“Stormy
Weather”
C
D
+1°C/2°C by
2050/2100
Each quadrant
represents a different
combination of potential
future temperature and
extreme precipitation
and storm events
Increased severity,
frequency
30
The “Hotwash” scenario envisions a much warmer and
much stormier future, as compared to the early 21st
century. Potential effects of such conditions include:













More coastal erosion
Increased rain on snow events
Increased travel danger
Increased sedimentation and river
erosion
Decrease in marine mammals
Migratory birds change
Large scale losses of archaeological
resources
Increased fire
More shrub expansion and lichen loss
Decreased winter caribou range
Infrastructure and habitat loss even
more severe than other quadrants due
to permafrost loss
Increased risk of village
relocation/destruction
Boreal forest expansion, moves in to
tundra areas










Infrastructure and habitat loss due to
permafrost loss
Increased risk of village
relocation/destruction
Boreal forest expansion
Ocean development, ocean travel and
tourism, oil and gas, mining, fisheries
leading to increased risk for
subsistence users (but also more
employment). Less tourism
development due to storms.
Increased risk of oil spills and
associated losses of fish, wildlife,
habitat, and ecosystem services
Marine noise and disturbance affect
subsistence
Loss of arctic endemic species, e.g.
musk ox, tundra hares
Aquatic invasive species
Increased disease and insects
31
Possible reduction in freight costs
Scenarios nested in a sociopolitical framework
Participants
examined possible
futures in a
sociopolitical
framework that
incorporated a
wide range of
societal concern
and institutional
support.
The two nested
scenarios selected
by the BELA group
are marked by
blue stars.
32
Cultural Resources
Massive loss of archaeological sites due to erosion,
irretrievable loss of cultural history and possible
compromise of park mandate
Facilities/ Infrastructure
Potentially greater need to accommodate cruise
ships and road travel, but no funding and large
erosion problems
Social/Economic/Subsistence
• Decreased subsistence harvests
• Health impacts with loss of important sources of
nutrition
• Loss of important social roles
• Increased costs of living due to substitution of
expensive imported food
• Huge increase in social problems associated with
relocation of village residents
• Community evacuation leads to dispersion to
cities and other communities
• Dispersion (diaspora) causes breakdown of
sharing networks, cultural socialization, traditional
roles
• Institutional help and protections against damage
to communities is missing, leading to more rapid
erosion, destruction
• Dissolution of community from storm surges may
lead to a loss of traditional ways of life
• Damage to community infrastructure may lead to
a rise in the cost of living
Natural Resources
• Loss of biodiversity through decreased ice
and heating of riverine systems; loss of
marine mammal species; loss of
subsistence fish.
• Sea level rise may exacerbate damage
from storm surges
• Sea ice season recedes and is limited to
about one month/year, limiting ability to
hunt on ice and exacerbating erosion
• Changing migration patterns could result
in inappropriate harvest seasons, methods
and take/limits
• Erosion of landing sites; impact to
delivery of bulk cargo (e.g. fuel); rising cost
of living
• Storms will have been hammering the
coast for several decades, causing massive
erosion and communities washing away
• Shrubs and forest encroaching leading to
more moose and beaver
Inland permafrost degradation leading to
damaged roads, new developable thawed
lands
Communication
• Less funding for interpretation and no
strong forums for discussion due to
community losses and funding cuts
• Great needs for communities near the
park to communicate needs and get help
33
Keep in mind….
Scenario planning involves synthesizing results to
create a small number of alternative stories
• Sixteen (or more) choices available (4x4)
• Need to select only 3-4 to turn into narratives
and planning tools
• Focus on scenarios that are:
 Challenging
 Divergent
 Relevant
 Plausible
• Create a narrative (story) about each scenario
34
Keep in mind…
Name
Species Hair/Fur
Age
Appetite
Level
Size
Preliminary
Porridge
Assessment
Preliminary
Mattress
Assessment
Goldilocks
Human
Blonde
8
Moderate
Petite
N/A
N/A
Papa
Bear
Brown
12
High
Big
Too Hot
Too Hard
Mama
Bear
Tawny
11
Too Cold
Too Soft
Baby
Bear
RedBrown
3
Just Right
Just Right
Moderate Medium
Low
Small
Effective storytelling matters!
35
Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group
© 2010 Monitor Company Group
The Sign (a short skit set several decades into the future)
A family is on a beach that used to be part of Bering Land Bridge National Preserve. The family is hunting for sea
lions. The hunters have gone up to the haul-out. As they wait for the hunters to return, a young woman picks up an old
faded sign with only a couple of letters left on it. “I wonder what this was?” she says to her grandmother. “Anyhow, it
would make a good table. There’s plenty of other driftwood for the fire.”
The grandmother says, “Oh, that’s the old park service sign.”
The young woman sets up the old sign as a table.
The old woman says, “I’m so glad my nephew came to hunt with us. It’s been almost a year now since we lost his
brother. That was so hard for him, and for all of us. His father was such a good provider, until he moved to Nome. The
family kind of fell apart then, when the village was evacuated. That was really a shame. The storms got so bad, and we
just couldn’t get any help, not even rocks. There was no clean water anymore either. Folks were getting sick. Things got
really bad. Even before the big storm, the village was cut off when the flooding washed out all the roads.”
As they make the fire, the young woman says, “I sure hope the hunters get lucky. It’s too bad our cousin in Nome
didn’t have the opportunity to harvest sea lions. He sure would have had fun, and he’d like the meat. I miss the taste of
walrus, though, from when I was little.”
The grandmother says, “Your cousin sure had a hard time in high school. I regret that he didn’t have the chance to
learn the traditional skills his father had.”
Her granddaughter nods. “And he could have done a lot of moose hunting, now that there’s enough for everyone –
but not this time of year, though, when they’re getting so buggy from this heat.”
The hunters return, triumphant, and are greeted and congratulated.
Later, as they sit and eat sea lion around the old park sign, they discuss past hunts.
An older man says, “It’s kind of scary these days, trying to get across rivers when the ice is so thin, even in the
middle of winter.”
“It’s hard to get around,” agrees another. “And I miss being able to go out on the ice to fish.”
“That doesn’t worry me as much as those cruise ships. Seems like they don’t pay attention to small boats, and they
make so much noise, and pollute the water. Sure doesn’t help the hunters.”
“I think the oil rigs are the worst. They say they’re not spilling anything,
but I’ve seen slicks on the water.”
“Well, the government sure isn’t going to do anything about it.”
“We’ll just have to do the best we can with what’s left.”
They all fall silent and enjoy their meat.
36
As the meal ends, they toss the old sign onto the fire.
The last letters of “Bering Land Bridge National Preserve”
turn black and disappear.
Explaining Scenarios: A Basic
GBN Scenario Creation Process
This diagram describes
the 5 key steps required
in any scenario planning
process
What is the
strategic issue or
decision that we
wish to address?
What critical
forces will
affect the
future of our
issue?
How do we combine and
synthesize these forces to
create a small number of
alternative stories?
As new
information
unfolds, which
scenarios seem
most valid?
Does this affect
our decisions
and actions?
What are the
implications of these
scenarios for our
strategic issue, and what
actions should we take
in light of them?
37
Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group
© 2010 Monitor Company Group
Categorizing Options to Help Set
Strategy
Bet the
Farm
Core
Hedge
Your
Bets
Robust: Pursue only those options that
would work out well (or at least not hurt
you too much) in any of the four
scenarios
OR
Hedge
Your
Bets
Bet the Farm / Shaping: Make one
clear bet that a certain future will
happen — and then do everything you
can to help make that scenario a reality
Robust
Satellite
OR
Hedge
Your
Bets
Hedge
Your
Bets
Satellite
Hedge Your Bets / Wait and See:
Make several distinct bets of relatively
equal size
OR
Core / Satellite: Place one major
bet, with one or more small bets as a
hedge against uncertainty, experiments,
and real options
Implications common to all scenarios
Loss of biodiversity of unique arctic species
Shifting species
Natural
Resource
Implications
Expansion of invasive species
Habitat transformation (land, sea and freshwater)
Changes to disturbance regimes
Increased contamination/pollution of water and land
Cultural
Resource
Implications
Loss of archaeological and paleontological sites and associated history
Pollution from new development and tourism is already occurring
Facilities/
Infrastructure
Implications
Risks to roads, communities, airstrips, telecommunication infrastructure
Threats to park facilities, vulnerable infrastructure
Demand for new infrastructure for industry and tourism
Communication/
Education &
Interpretation
Implications
Need for effective collaborative communication across agencies and communities
BELA Photo by NPS
Increased need to capture traditional ecological knowledge (TEK)
Need for more consistent messages coming to/from parks
Subsistence patterns are changing
Social/
Economic/
Subsistence
Implications
Depletion of marine mammals and increasing pressure on terrestrial wildlife. This could in turn
lead to conflict between terrestrial wildlife users.
Loss of cultural traditions and norms
Pressure for more flexible regulations
Pressure for more industry and tourism
39
Lake Kuzitrin
Photo by NPS - Jennifer Thelen
Management actions common to all scenarios
Testing and recording an archeological feature atop a beach ridge UW/NPS
Revisit park mandates
Improve interagency collaboration and planning
Improve integration of TEK into science, planning and management
Management
Actions
Increased flexibility in management, direction and principles
Long-range adaptive planning to conserve limited funds
Develop good outreach tools for diverse audiences
Find and cultivate partners for funding
Develop research proposals for projects that address research needs identified through CCSP
Photo by NPS
Create and maintain coordinated seamless data collection and sharing
Research and
Information
Needs
Robust I &M program focused on critical resources and habitat
Identify creative strategies to work across interdisciplinary boundaries
Encourage interdisciplinary coordination with feedback loops and partnering
Data recovery of archaeological/paleontological sites
40
Explaining Scenarios: A Basic
GBN Scenario Creation Process
This diagram describes
the 5 key steps required
in any scenario planning
process
What is the
strategic issue or
decision that we
wish to address?
What critical
forces will
affect the
future of our
issue?
How do we combine and
synthesize these forces to
create a small number of
alternative stories?
As new
information
unfolds, which
scenarios seem
most valid?
Does this affect
our decisions
and actions?
What are the
implications of these
scenarios for our
strategic issue, and what
actions should we take
in light of them?
41
Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group
© 2010 Monitor Company Group