Transcript Effects of Global Warming

Environmental Health Impacts
of Global Climate Change
Crispin Pierce, Ph.D.
[email protected]
Environmental Public Health Program
Outline
• Global Human Environmental Threats
• Experiment Challenge
• Direct Human Effects
– Heat deaths
– Adverse weather events
– Costs of extreme weather events
• Relationship Between Climate Change
and Other Environmental Issues
• Associated Climate Changes and
Surprises
• Flooding of Low-Lying Areas
• Spread of Waterborne Diseases
• Climate Change and Food Production
• Effects on Plant and Animal Communities
– Phenology
– Greening of the North
– Coral Bleaching
– Species Extinction
• Benefits of Stabilizing CO2 Concentrations
Global Human Environmental
Threats
1. Overpopulation
2. Global Climate Change
3. Loss of Biodiversity
Experimental Challenge
• A reporter for the Eau Claire Leader-Telegram
contacts you for information on an article
concerning global warming. She asks you the
question, “If air and sea temperatures rise, will
the melting of icebergs lead to sea level
increases?” What is your response.
• Use the materials in front of you (ice cubes, a
graduated cylinder, and a water faucet), how
would you test your answer?
Direct Human Effects
• Hotter, Drier Summers and Warmer,
Wetter Winters
• Increased Adverse Weather Events
• Property and Crop Losses
Quick Quiz
•
About how many people in Europe died
during the heat wave of 2003?
1. 350
2. 3,500
3. 35,000
•
Heat is the primary cause of weatherrelated deaths.
Adverse Weather Events
• Increased Sea Surface Temperatures and
Greater Hurricane Intensity (Science 16
September 2005:Vol. 309. no. 5742, pp.
1844 - 1846)
• Net Hurricane Power Dissipation Highly
Correlated with Tropical Sea Surface
Temperature (Nature advance online
publication; published online 31 July 2005
| doi: 10.1038/nature03906)
Costs of Extreme Weather Events
Relationship Between Climate
Change and Other Environmental
Issues
• The complex effects of warming of our
atmosphere, water, and soil are very
difficult to measure and predict.
• Accumulation of evidence from many
fields, such as chemistry, biology, geology,
and environmental health is essential.
• The accumulated evidence provides a
clearer and clearer picture of what’s going
on.
Associated Climate Changes
• Global sea-level has increased 1-2
mm/yr; in 100 years a rise in sea level
between 3.5 and 34.6 in. (9-88 cm) is
expected
• Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes
decreased by 2 weeks in N.
Hemisphere
• Arctic ice has thinned substantially,
decreased in extent by 10-15%
• Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar,
mountainous regions
• Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in
N. Hemisphere
• Retreat of continental glaciers on all
continents
• Snow cover decreased by 10% (reduced
solar reflection)
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent.
(Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)
Climate Surprises
• Slowing of the ocean thermohaline
circulation
• Breakoff of the
West Antarctic
Ice Sheet
Flooding of Low-Lying Coastal
Areas
Source: U.S. National Assessment, 2000.
Kennedy Space
Center
Impact of a 1-m
rise in sea level
on low-lying areas
Areas subjected to
Inundation with a 1 m
(~3 ft) rise in sea
level
Miami
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of
a warming Arctic. Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge
University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
Who Will be First Affected?
• AOSIS is a coalition of small island and low-lying coastal
countries, including Africa, Caribbean, Indian Ocean,
Mediterranean, Pacific, South China Sea
• These countries share risk factors for warming-induced
disasters:
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Small physical size
Surrounded by large expanses of ocean
Relative isolation
Limited natural resources
Growing populations
Exposure to damaging natural disasters
Low economic diversification
Limited funds, human resources, skills
• Rising sea levels will cause
– Displacement of coastal communities
– Disturbance of agricultural activity
– Coastal erosion, beach loss, decline in
tourism
– Intrusion of sea water into freshwater aquifers
• Other risks faced by AOSIS
– More frequent droughts and floods
– Water supply contamination
• The experience of AOSIS countries is a
microcosm of the global picture
Spread of Waterborne Diseases
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Malaria
Dengue Fever
Cholera
Typhoid fever
Hantavirus
Diptheria
Lyme Disease
Evidence: the Caribbean region has experienced a marked
increase in the incidence of dengue and dengue
hemorrhagic fever in the past decade (Caribbean
Epidemiology Centre - CAREC).
•
Climate Change and Food
• The growth of crops depends on many factors,
including temperature, precipitation, soil fertility,
and surrounding land uses.
• Extreme weather events (drought, hurricanes,
floods, etc.) are very damaging to crops. The
effects of more gradual affects (e.g., average
temperature increase) are difficult to predict.
• Developing countries will be much harder hit
than developed countries, due to limited
agricultural flexibility.
Effects on Plant and Animal
Communities
• The effects are difficult to measure, but potentially
dramatic.
• Many species inhabit precisely bounded ecological
niches, and so small changes in climate can cause
disruptions in habitat or food availability.
• In the past, mobile animals could respond to these
pressures by moving from one place to another. Land
development, however, has constrained and fragmented
ranges and travel routes, making migration much more
difficult.
• Loss of key predator or prey species affects the life
cycles of other organisms in the food chain.
Phenology
(Timing of Natural Events)
• Evidence of earlier leafing and flowering.
http://www.exploratorium.edu/climate/biosphere/data1.html
Greening of the North
• More vegetative growth in the last 20
years.
Ranga B. Myneni,
Department of
Geography, Boston
University
• Many scientists predict greater
desertification.
Coral Bleaching
• Increased sea temperatures
• Increased CO2 concentrations:
CO2  CaCO3  H 2 0  2 HCO3  Ca 2
http://www.awi-bremerhaven.de/Carbon/calcif.html
Species Extinction
• Extinction of the golden
toad:
– Over the past 30 years, the
dry season in the Costa
Rica’s cloud forest has
become warmer and drier.
– 20 out of 50 species of
frogs and toads have
disappeared from a 30square-kilometer study
area
– Toucans and other bird
– Frog extinction in the
species have shifted their
range to higher altitudes.
Central and South American
tropics
Biological Shifts
• Shifts in the ranges of 35 species of nonmigratory butterflies.
• Decline in body weight of polar bears, resulting
from early melting of sea ice and lowered food
availability.
• Changes in the abundance of winter songbirds
in four Great Plains states
• Shifts in California’s tidepools species
• Reduction of phytoplankton growth in the Ross
Sea that could disrupt the Antarctic food chain
Stabilizing CO2 Atmospheric Levels
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Efficient Transportation
Energy Conservation
Sustainable Energy Sources
Sustainable Land Use
Population Stabilization
References
• Exploratorium.edu
• Eugene S. Takle, Iowa State University
• Joan L. Aron, Vulnerability Associated with
Climate Variability and Climate Change in
Central America and the Caribbean
• Union of Concerned Scientists
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change
Extra Slides
• Scientists predict that continued global warming on the order of 2.5°10.4°F over the next 100 years (as projected in the IPCC's Third
Assessment Report) is likely to result in:
• severe stress on many forests, wetlands, alpine regions, and other
natural ecosystems
• greater threats to human health as mosquitoes and other diseasecarrying insects and rodents spread diseases over larger
geographical regions
• disruption of agriculture in some parts of the world due to increased
temperature, water stress, and sea-level rise in low-lying areas such
as Bangladesh or the Mississippi River delta.