Transcript oil publication

Global Climate Change and Public
Policy
Peak Oil, Climate Change,
and
Energy Alternatives
Professor Leonard Rodberg
Department of Urban Studies
Office Powdermaker Rm 250A
Email [email protected]
Telephone 718-997-5134
2004
US Oil Production and Imports
The Time Course of Production
of any Non-renewal Resource
according to M. King Hubbert
It Gets Harder and Harder to Find Oil
Hubbert Curve for US Oil
Production - 1956
2004
US Oil Production and Imports
The Paper that Started It All…
*Publication No. 95, Shell Development Company, Exploration and Production Research
Division, Houston, Texas
**Chief Consultant (General Geology).
World Energy Use by Fuel
Hubbert Curve for World Oil
Production - 1956
The Decline of New Oil Discoveries
Oil Production Worldwide
The Optimists’ View
Taking the Long View: The
History of the Human Race
according to M. King Hubbert
It’s Getting Warmer
And the Sea Level is Rising
Greenhouse Effect
What are the Greenhouse Gases?
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
• Methane (CH4)
Principal Source: Burning of Fossil Fuels:
Oil, natural gas/methane, coal
Hydrocarbons (CnHm)) + Oxygen (O2)  CO2 + H2O
Also Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
The Concentration of CO2 is Growing
GHG Trends 1970-2004
Carbon, and Fossil Fuels, are the Culprit
Radiative Forcing Components
Human and Natural
Drivers of Climate
Change
CO2, CH4 and N2O Concentrations
- far exceed pre-industrial values
- increased markedly since 1750
due to human activities
The Long View
Relatively little variation before
the industrial era
Direct Observation of Recent
Climate Change
At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales,
numerous long-term changes in climate have
been observed. These include:
– Changes in Arctic temperatures and ice,
– Widespread changes in precipitation
amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns
– and aspects of extreme weather including
droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves
and the intensity of tropical cyclones
Declining Sea Ice
http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warmingbasics/facts_and_figures/impacts/lateseaice.cfm
GLOBAL WARMING: Early Warning Signs
Impacts Worldwide
Fingerprints and Harbingers
Spreading disease
Coral reef bleaching
Downpours, heavy
snowfalls, and
flooding
Heat waves and periods
of unusually warm
weather
Glaciers melting
Earlier spring arrival
Sea level rise and coastal
flooding
Arctic and Antarctic
warming
Plant and animal
range shifts and
population declines
www.climatehotmap.org
Droughts and fires
Why Not Natural Gas?
Natural gas causes more global warming but less air
pollution mortality than coal over 150 years due to
less sulfate (a cooling agent) and more methane (a
warming agent) from natural gas than coal. Coal
causes higher mortality.
50-70 times more CO2 and air pollution per kWh
than wind
Hydrofracking causes land and water supply
degradation
Why Not Nuclear?
9-25 times more pollution per kWh than wind from
mining & refining uranium, using fossil fuels for
electricity during the 11-19 years to permit (6-10 y)
and construct (4-9 y) nuclear plant compared with
2-5 years for a wind or solar farm
Risk of meltdown (1.5% of all nuclear reactors to
date have melted)
Risk of nuclear weapons proliferation
Unresolved waste issues
Why Not Ethanol?
Corn and cellulosic E85 cause same or higher air
pollution as gasoline
-- Corn E85: 90-200% of CO2 emissions of
gasoline
-- Cellulosic E85: 50-150% of CO2 emissions of
gasoline
Wind: <1% of CO2 emissions as gasoline
Enormous land use and water requirements
U.S. Carbon Stabilization via Wedges
Source: Lashof and Hawkins, NRDC, in Socolow and Pacala,
Scientific American, September 2006, p. 57
Wind
WindElectricity
Electricity
Effort needed by 2055 for
1 wedge:
One million 2-MW windmills
displacing coal power.
Today: 50,000 MW (1/40)
Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany
(Danish Wind Industry Association)
Photovoltaic Power
Nuclear
Electricity
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:
Nuclear Electricity
700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing
coal power.
Phase out of nuclear power creates
the need for another half wedge.
Site: Surry station, James River, VA;
1625 MW since 1972-73.
Credit: Dominion.
A revised goal: retrievable storage
Natural-U plants (no enrichment), no reprocessing
Universal rules and international governance
Biofuels
Efficient
Use
of
Electricity
Efficient Use of Electricity
motors
lighting
cogeneration
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:
.
25% reduction in expected 2055 electricity use in commercial
and residential buildings
Target commercial and multifamily buildings.
Efficient
Use
of of
Fuel
Efficient
Use
Fuel
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:
Note: 1 car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 1 ton of carbon.
2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per year at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg.
2 billion cars driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles per year.
Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and discourage sprawl
Carbon Storage
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:
3500 Sleipners @1 MtCO2/yr
100 x U.S. CO2 injection rate for EOR
Carbon Storage
A flow of CO2 into the Earth equal to the
flow of oil out of the Earth today
Sleipner project, offshore Norway
Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA
Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins
Reforestation and Land Conservation
NYC Energy Profile 1979
Saving Energy in NYC
Source: L. Rodberg and G. Stokes, The Village Voice, Feb. 18, 1980
PlaNYC Mitigation Measures
PlaNYC Wedges
Planning for a Major Hurricane
Both Adaptation and Mitigation:
Mayor’s PlaNYC Adapts to Some
Inevitable Climate Change
• Protect our city’s vital infrastructure
• Work with vulnerable neighborhoods
to develop site-specific strategies
• Launch a citywide strategic planning
process for climate change adaptation