Transcript Presentation (12MB Powerpoint)

Climate Trends and Wheat Straw Supplies
Dave Sauchyn, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina
North American Mushroom Conference, Vancouver, 23 June 2013
What is climate change?
Climate: from klima (ancient Greek)
meaning inclination:
a tendency, characteristic likelihood
• climate is the statistics of weather
• “weather is what we get,
climate is what we expect”
Climate change: a statistically significant variation in the
mean climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended
period (decades or longer).
Source: NASA <data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3>
April 2013 was the 339th consecutive month (more than
28 years) with a global temperature above the 20th
century average.
Every month has been warmer than average
since May, 1985.
Question 1
A recent study reviewed 13,950 scientific articles on the topic of
climate change. How many of these articles concluded that there
was no human caused global warming?
6950
209
24
3210
Question 2
Anthropogenic (human caused) global warming is a
relatively recent scientific discovery
True
False
Joseph Fourier (1768 –1830) – 1824
Svante August Arrhenius (1859 –1927) - 1896
Guy Stewart Callendar (1898 – 1964) - 1938
Question 3
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere currently is
300 ppm
330 ppm
375 ppm
400 ppm
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Source: NASA <climate.nasa.gov/evidence>
The level of the most important heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere, carbon
dioxide, has passed a long-feared milestone, scientists reported Friday,
reaching a concentration not seen on the Earth for millions of years.
Scientific monitors reported that the gas had reached an average daily level
that surpassed 400 parts per million – just an odometer moment in one
sense, but also a sobering reminder that decades of efforts to bring humanproduced emissions under control are faltering.
data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
Average Winter Temperatures (° C), Edmonton, 1881-2010
1969: - 20° C
- 6° F
=21° C
David Sauchyn
Thanks to:
Lawrence Zimmermann, Highline Mushrooms (Ontario)
Burton Loveday, Loveday Mushrooms (Manitoba)
Mike Manion, All Seasons Mushrooms (Alberta & BC)
Don Needham, Hy-Tech Compost (U.S.)
Planting intentions for 2013 in M acres (Statistics Canada)
Global Crop Production
http://storymaps.esri.com/stories/feedingtheworld/
Observed Long-Term Trends for Agroclimatic Conditions in Canada
Qian et al. 2010
GSS: growing season start
GSE: growing season end
Qian et al. 2010
EGDD: effective growing degree-days computed
by applying a day-length factor to GDD
Percentage of stations showing a significant positive
trend (++) or a significant negative trend (--)
EGDD: effective growing degree-days computed by
applying a day-length factor to GDD
Observed Long-Term Trends for Agroclimatic Conditions
in Canada
We find a significant increasing trend in the length of the
growing season and in the associated available heat. The
winter temperature is less damaging and the frost-free
periods are longer. We also find trends in precipitationrelated indices that indicate more availability of water,
though the trend in the main agriculture region is less
significant.
QIAN et al. 2010
Interannual Variation in Moisture
www.unesco.org
CMI is a measure of variability in the ratio of plant water demand to
precipitation. It is an indicator of highly variable climates potentially
vulnerable to periodic water stress.
Inter-Annual Moisture Variability, North America
From: Sokhansanj et al. 2006. Production and distribution of cereal straw
on the Canadian prairies.
Question 4
Have you ever experienced a shortage of wheat straw due poor
growing conditions, too little or too rain, in a wheat producing
area?
Yes
No
Annual Crop Yields (bu/ac), RM of Biggar, 1938-2010
Source: www.agriculture.gov.sk.ca/rmyields
Precipitation deficit, Saskatoon
October 2010
817 Natural Disasters
1. Drought: Prairie provinces, 1980
2. Freezing rain: Ontario to New Brunswick, Jan 6-10 1998
3. Drought: Prairie provinces
and Central and Southern ON, Jul 5-11 1988
4. Drought: Prairie provinces, 1979
5. Drought: Prairie provinces, 1984
* Drought, Prairies, 2001-02, $.58 B
9. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1931-1938
10. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1989
11. Hailstorm: Calgary AB, Sept 7 1991
12. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1961
13. Flood: Assiniboine, Red and Winnipeg Rivers MB, May 1997
14. Drought: Western Canada, 1985
15. Tornado: Edmonton AB, Jul 31 1987
16. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1977
17. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1990
18. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1992
Mean annual flow (m3/s) North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton, 1063-2006
departures from the 1912-2007 mean
Sauchyn et al. 2011
Cycles in the tree rings
El Niño remote impacts: Teleconnections
La Niña teleconnections have the opposite effect
Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP
Munich Reinsurance (2012) Severe weather in North America
"Best Management Practices: For the
Agricultural Climate of Tomorrow”
Vegreville, AB, March 26, 2009
THANKS!
aaog.blogspot.ca