Transcript Document

Climate Change Impacts and
Adaptation in the Prairie Provinces
Dave Sauchyn, Ph.D., P.Geo.
C-CIARN Prairies
Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative
Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry
Ottawa, December, 2002
http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/index.cgi
0
-5
-10
-15
Mean February Temperature
1885-1999, 49.8 N, 108.4 W
-20
-25
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Projections (broad generalizations) for the future climate
of the Prairie Provinces
Temperature: increasing, greater in winter than summer,
greater at night than during day
Precipitation: great uncertainty, annually small increase
to significant decrease
Evaporation: increased
Soil moisture: decreased
Growing season: increased
Atmospheric CO2: increased
Extreme events: increased frequency and magnitude
Hydrology: increased variability, earlier peak flows
The Canadian Plains
Natural and socio-economic systems are
sensitive to climatic variability, climatic
change and extreme hydroclimatic events
Land Cover
Soil
PFRA, 2001
PFRA, 2001
PFRA, 2001
PFRA, 2001
Adaptation Options
Share the Loss
Bear the Loss
Structural, Technological
Modify the Events
Legislative, Regulatory, Financial
Prevent the Effects
Institutional, Administrative
Research
Market-based
On-site Operations
Education, Behavioural
Avoid the Impacts
Change Use
Change Location
Impacts and Adaptations in Forestry
 Major impacts are likely to be:
 changes in forest productivity
 increases in fires and insect attack
 changes in occurrence of commercially-important
species
Sustainable forest management has been shown
to be able to adapt, but...
 Requires stronger science regarding impacts, ecosystem
responses
 Requires integration of climate change impacts with
those of other land use activities
35
250 mm
Montreal Lake, SK
Wet soils
200 mm
30
Medium soils
Biomass Index
25
150 mm
100 mm
20
15

Dry soils – productivity declines in the future

Medium soils – productivity increases, then declines

Wet soils – productivity increases in the future
10
5
50 mm
Dry soils
Note: Analysis assumes soils fully recharged following snowmelt
0
61-90
2020
2050
Scenario
2080
Source: Johnston 2001
Mean increase in fire
season severity under
2 X CO2
(Flannigan et al. 2001)
Prairie Agricultural Landscapes (PFRA 2000: 32-33)
Severe and widespread erosion could still occur during extreme
climatic events and especially during a period of years with
back-to-back droughts.
Soil eroded from the conventional and minimum till plots in
1990 [two events] was 70% and 73%, respectively, of the total
soil eroded during the operation of the plots from 1986 to 1993.
Very severe wind and water erosion is dominated by infrequent
occurrences of when highly erosive events impact exposed soil.
Such events may only happen once during the farming lifetime of
an individual farmer, making it difficult to justify the expense and
inconvenience of many soil conservation practices.
Adaptation to Climatic Variability
A projected increase in climate variability,
including more frequent drought and major
hydroclimatic events, is the most ominous
climate change scenario. It is a more
formidable and complex challenge than the
adaptation of practices, processes and
infrastructure to long-term climate trends.
More extreme climate anomalies are more
likely to exceed natural and engineering
thresholds beyond which the impacts of
climate are much more severe.
Medicine Hat (1884-2001)
Single Years
Three-year droughts
2001
147.3
1999-2001
662.6
1907
173.1
1907-09
681.6
1943
182.2
1918-20
716.4
1928
194.1
1905-07
721.5
1919
195.6
1928-30
724.9
1997
197.3
1929
207.0
1924
207.6
1961
207.7
2000
214.3
Near Outlook, Saskatchewan, May 2, 2002
Soil drifting near Oyen, Alberta, May 5, 2002
Agriculture Drought Risk Management Plan for Alberta
Ad hoc responses to an existing drought
crisis may lead to untimely and costly
short-term solutions. In contrast, a risk
management approach to drought allows
an immediate, effective response during a
drought crisis, and also reduces drought
impacts over the long term through
planning and preparedness.
Social Cohesion Survey
How Seriousness is Climate Change?
Very Serious
45%
Somewhat Serious 44%
Not at all
11%
Social Cohesion Survey
What are you doing to adapt to Adjust to
Climate Change?
Farmer NonFarmer
Nothing
39.5
50.2
Following the Issue 31.4
37.3
Something More
12.4
29.1
Climate Impacts and Adaptation, Prairies
1. The Prairies Provinces are projected to experience
the greatest increases in temperatures as a result
of future climate changes of any region in
Canada.
2. The Prairie Provinces are characterized by diverse
ecosystems, high climatic variability, and key
aspects of the economy that are climatically
sensitive.
3. The major direct impact of global warming in the
Prairies Provinces will likely be increased aridity
over a larger area.
4. Higher temperatures and a longer growing season
will potentially support crop production over a larger
area than at present, however, decreased soil
moisture and water supplies may limit these
opportunities.
5. Projected shifts in climate variability and the
frequency of extreme events would significantly
impact the people and economy of the Prairie
Provinces. Most climate models forecast and
increase in the frequency and severity of drought.
6. The Rocky Mountains are the primary source of water
for most of the population of Saskatchewan and
Alberta. Changes in the extent of snow and glaciers
will affect the timing and storage of runoff and
require adaptation of water management practices.
7. The impacts of a warmer drier conditions on the
western boreal forest (increased fire frequency and
intensity; increases in insect outbreaks, and changes
in productivity) will impact the ability of the forest
industry to harvest timber and will challenge
provincial forest protection programs and budgets.
8. Prairie people, and especially farmers, have a
relatively large capacity to adapt to climate change
because of a history of adaptation to climatic
variability, including periodic drought and floods.
Nonetheless, rural communities are vulnerable.
9. Planning of adaptation to climate change requires
improved understanding of the process of adaptation.
Research is needed on the cost of both impacts and
adaptation, and the social aspects of climate change.