Transcript 03_Bulgaria lecture - Crisis management and disaster response

Environmental Security – Climate
Change---Security Assessment for the
Balkans
W. Chris King, Ph.D. P.E.
Brigadier General, US Army retired
Dean of Academics, US Army Command and General
Staff College
Fort Leavenworth, Kansas
Featuring work from
MAJ Kosta Delev, MMAS, CGSC, 2015
CPT Kuman Gerovski, MMAS, CGSC, 2016
HOT NEWS
Global Climate Emergency Declared
June 30, 2016
SOURCE: Robert Scribbler and University of Ottawa researcher Paul Beckwith
For all history
Today
Goals of this Session





Understand the concepts of Environmental Security
and climate change as strategic defense and security
threat for all nations of the world.
Appreciate the relationship between key
environmental issues, and peace and stability in the
World
Use the Nile River as a case study to understand the
concepts of environmental security. Apply to an
environmental security assessment for Balkan region.
Highlight climate change by examining the IPCC 5th
AR. Conduct a strategic security assessment of the
IPCC report. Apply to Bulgaria.
Examine the impacts of the recent Paris Climate
Summit-- COP 21
Defining Environmental Security
The Concept of Environmental
Security
Peace is not the absence of conflict, but
the maintenance of a safe and secure
environment capable of providing for
people’s basic human needs in a
sustainable way; And, there are human
induced changes in the environment of
such an impact that they pose threats to
stability in many places in the world.
This is not new!
“ …national security is not just about fighting
forces and weaponry. It relates to
watersheds, croplands, forests, genetic
resources, climate and other factors that
rarely figure in the minds of military experts
and political leaders,”
Norman Myers, The Environmentalist, 1986
Hierarchy of Human Values



Life

Food = Arable lands

Water = clean and sufficient

Absence of disease

Basic energy needs

Safety
Liberty - Freedom to choose

Culture

Religion

Government

????
Pursuit of Happiness
Providing life sustaining conditions is a basic human
pursuit and this defines environmental security
An Important Fact – the most important fact?
Where is most of the world?
Where in the ‘Hierarchy of Human Need’
do you think most of the world’s 7.2
billion people exist?
And where do you(we) live?
Science of Environmental Security



Water as a Scarce Resource
- Fresh Water
- Oceans
Air
- Climate change
- El Nino / La Nina
- Ozone depletion in the stratosphere
- Toxic air pollutants
Land Use – protection of Arable lands
- Deforestation-- Biodiversity and the rainforests
- Desertification
- Waste disposal – hazardous and solid wastes
ES Analysis
Afghanistan Facts

23.8 million, 12.3 million males -44m by 2025







13 % access to safe drinking water





39L/day/person (minimum std is 50)
21% access to sanitation in 1970, 20% today
Management of solid and hazardous waste does NOT exist.
Less than 3 % forest
Percent arable lands – 12 % including 3 % in forests


3.88 % growth rate, 3rd in the world
2.7 % RNI
6.90 fertility rate, 8th in the world
Life expectancy -43.1 years
Median age – 18 years
Infant mortality rate -147
Food production dropped by 40% 1995 to 2000
Air Quality - ???
Afghanistan = 7th worst failed state and bottom 10 worst environmental
conditions in the world
The Nile – A Case Study
YEARLY FLOW
RAINFALL
0 in/yr
10 in/yr
20 in/yr
30 in/yr
At Aswan
91 BCM
Atbara R
12 BCM
Blue Nile
75 BCM
White Nile
28 BCM
40 – 80
in/yr
Water Demands and Population in the
Nile River Basin
Country
Burundi
Per capita (M3
Per Person Per
Year)
Population in
2011 (millions)
Projected
Population in 2050
Current Water
Demand
Projected Water
Demand 2050
37
8.383
27.149
0.3 BCM
1 BCM
1,013
81.121
137.873
82 BCM
140 BCM
Ethiopia
40
82.950
278.283
3.3 BCM
11 BCM
Rwanda
10
10.624
27.506
0.1 BCM
0.3 BCM
South Sudan*
1,879
8 to 15.
30.0
22 BCM
56 BCM
Sudan
1,879
34.000
67.000
63 BCM
126 BCM
13
33.425
128.008
0.4 BCM
1.7 BCM
265.503
696.781
171.1 BCM
336 BCM
Egypt
Uganda
totals
Source: World Bank. “Africa Development Indicators,” 2004, http://publications.world
bank.org/ (accessed 27 March 2011). Population data and growth rates from CIA Fact Book.
Note: DNI study uses 1,000 M3 / person/ yr as demand factor
Figure 1. Maritza-Evros-Meric Sub-basin with Arda and Ergene Rivers
Source: International Network of Water-Environment Centres for the Balkans, “MaritzaEvros-Meric Sub-Basin With Arda and Ergene Rivers,” accessed 13 October 2014,
http://www.inweb.gr/workshops2/sub_basins/13_14_15_Evros_Ardas_Ergene.html
“CLIMATE CHANGE AND POOR WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
WILL HAVE SERIOUS SECURITY IMPLICATIONS
IN THE BALKAN PENINSULA”
a masters thesis by KOSTA DELEV, CAPTAIN, BULGARIAN ARMY
The aim of this paper is to define the security threats for the Balkan
Peninsula caused by climate change and poor water resource
management. This research focuses on surface rather than groundwater
and specifically explore the Maritza and Tundja Rivers which form the
border area between Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey. The paper details how
poor water management in these rivers will create security threats. Using
the mixed methodology to analyze the collected data, the results of the
research shows that climate change and population growth will strain the
environment of the Balkan Peninsula, and it will be followed by resource
crises. The biggest threat is water scarcity.
MAJ Delev’s
Recommendations
For this reason, the establishment of a new center only between Bulgaria, Greece,
and Turkey is proposed. The new center for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation
(CCAM) between the three countries should be established, regulated, and funded from
the neighboring countries. This should be an independent organization, with full support
from the countries, focused on the climate change impact to the region. This combined
center would advise and assist the governments with climate change issues.
This combined center or CCAM has to have a few essential and critical
responsibilities:
1. To assess and define the climate change impact to the region.
2. To define the risks and threats that climate change creates.
3. To create a long term strategy for adaptation and mitigation for the climate
change.
4. To create a short-term strategy for immediate actions to avoid or decrease the
impact of climate change.
5. The strategy should be linked with funding. To delegate authorities to apply for
funding from the three governments, the EU, or the International Monetary Fund.
6. To synchronize the operations between the three countries before, during, and
after the disaster happens, even being the lead element of that.
7. To delegate authorities to synchronize and work with the NATO center of
excellence and EU structures.
8. To synchronize and propose big projects linked with the climate change
adaptation and mitigation.
Climate Change --Today
Data from the 5th Report Assessment Report of the
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), 2014
(1st Report, 1990)
Is this the future with climate change ?
Greenhouse gases are those that can absorb and emit infrared radiation
(heat), but not radiation in or near the visible spectrum (sun’s energy). In
order, the most abundant greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are:






Water vapor (H2O)
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
Ozone (O3)
CFCs
Projected Changes in the Water Cycle
NOAA/NCDC
IPCC DATA from 27 September 2014 Science Report
It must also be noted that when it rains is also changing
IPCC DATA from 27 September 2014 Science Report
Building a Crystal Ball for the
Future of CC
Or ---Why can’t someone just
tell us what is going to
happen??
Strategic Threat Assessment of
the Key Climate Change Drivers
Climate-Related Driver
Key Impacts
Security and Defense Impact
Temperature warming:
Increase of disease (vector and water-borne), stress
Increase of humanitarian support missions, refugee support, medical
0.85 0 C in 2012,
on water resources, loss of arable lands, reduced
resources to respond to epidemic disease, potential for conflict
1.0 – 3.7 0C by 2100
food production,
Extreme temperature: highest in
Increased mortality and health and well-being
Medical logistics support, increase of humanitarian support missions,
Asia, Europe, Australia,
issues, stress water resources, reduced crops
security operations (ops) and potential for conflict
Drying trend: global, highest in
Food security threats, water resource stress,
Support migrations, humanitarian ops, potential for conflict.
Extreme precipitation: highest in
Flood damage to infrastructure, loss of life,
Increase of humanitarian support missions, large-scale logistics support,
mid-latitudes and wet tropics by
increased infectious and vector borne disease
medical ops in respond to epidemic disease, security ops.
Precipitation: More in the high
Water resource stress, loss of arable land, public
Increase of humanitarian support missions, logistics support, medical
latitudes and at the equator. Drier
health issues, water quality degradation
support to respond to epidemic disease, security ops, potential for
mid-latitudes
2100.
in mid-latitudes and sub-tropics
conflict, engineering support.
Snow and ice cover: Ice – 15 -85 % Loss of snow and ice stresses water resources,
Increase of humanitarian support missions, large-scale logistics support,
reduction by 2100. Snow- 7-25 %
medical resources to respond to epidemic disease, border security ops.
increased rate of warming, flooding and droughts
loss by 2100
Damaging cyclone: most likely in
Loss of life and property damage, extreme flooding, Increase of humanitarian support missions, security ops, engineering
Western North Pacific and Atlantic
increased disease following disaster
Sea level: 0.19 M in 2010, 0.4-.63
Flooding/property damage, loss of coastal and island Refugee support, large scale logistics support, security ops,
reconstruction support, disaster medical relief, logistics support,
Climate-Related
Key Impacts
Security and Defense Impact
Driver
Temperature
Increased disease rates
Increase of humanitarian support
warming:
(vector and water-borne),
missions, refugee support, medical
0.85 0 C in 2012,
stress on water resources,
resources to respond to epidemic
1.0 – 3.7 0C by
loss of arable lands, reduced disease, potential for conflict
2100
food production,
Climate-Related
Key Impacts
Security and Defense Impact
Driver
Precipitation:
Water resource stress, loss of Increase of humanitarian support
More in the high
arable land, public health
missions, logistics support, medical
latitudes and at the issues, water quality
support to respond to epidemic disease,
equator. Drier in
security ops, potential for conflict,
mid-latitudes and
sub-tropics
degradation
engineering support.
Climate-Related
Key Impacts
Security and Defense Impact
Driver
Snow and ice cover: Loss of snow and ice stresses Increase of humanitarian support
Ice – 15 -85 %
water resources, increased
reduction by 2100.
rate of warming, flooding and medical resources to respond to
Snow- 7-25 % loss
droughts
by 2100
missions, large-scale logistics support,
epidemic disease, border security ops.
3.2 Billion people at risk
Drying
and Ice Loss– 3.2 billion people
Special Area Snow
of Concern
Precipitation change
Floods & Droughts
Sea Level Rise
Extreme weather
“Climate change impact on the southeastern Europe security environment and the
increasing role of the Bulgarian Army as the world warms.”
*
Masters Thesis CGSC, May 2016, by
CPT Kuman Gerovski
PLOVDIV
SOFIA
Table 1.
Variation of the key impacts of climate change in Bulgaria by regions
Climate-Related Drivers
Temperature warming:
7.0-9.0°C in 2100
Human and Natural Impacts
A great impact on human life, health, food and
water security.
Increase the diseases, infections, and mortality.
Decrease quality of life.
Security Implications
Social insecurity based on
increased mortality and
negative population growth
rate in the country.
Drying trend:
Increase summer season
A great impact on human life, health, food and
water security
Stress on water resources and food production.
Decrease quality of life.
Significant prerequisite for
human migration flows.
Extreme precipitation:
Increase
As economic, cultural and social center of
Bulgaria, each extreme precipitation will have
great impact on the economic sphere and
human life.
Impact on water quality, manufacturing
industry, and water transport.
Flood damages to the existing infrastructure
and property.
Loss of life, livelihood
Breakdown of infrastructure networks and
critical services such as electricity, water
supply, and health and emergency services.
Temperature warming:
7.0-9.0°C in 2100
As major agricultural region all impacts on the
food production and agriculture will have
severe effects in the area.
Insect and plant pests may survive or even
reproduce more often each year if cold winters
no longer keep them in check.
New pests may also invade each region as
temperature and humidity conditions change.
Extreme Temperature
highest changes
Drying trend:
Increase summer season
Reduced food production.
The productivity of crops and livestock,
including milk yields, may decline because of
drought-related stress.
Depending on rain-fed agriculture the region
may require irrigation, bringing higher costs
and conflict over access to water.
Prime growing temperatures may shift to
higher latitudes, where soil and nutrients may
Increased the number of
Muslim migrants to the
region.
Significant negative social
outcomes in resourcedependent systems.
Temporary or permanent
displaced people, refugees,
relocated communities, and
migration.
Increased risk of newly
emerging pathogen or disease
situation.
Risks of tension over access to
energy supply.
Potential to increase rivalry
between regions over shared
resources.
For general security
implication see Table 3.
For general
implication
For general
implication
security
see Table 3.
security
see Table 3.
VARNA
Extreme precipitation
increase all over the
region
BURGAS
Extreme snowfall
Extreme precipitation
increase all over the
region
PLEVEN
Temperature warming:
7.0-9.0°C in 2100
Major summer tourist destination. All impacts
on infrastructure, water and food security will
have severe impacts for the region.
Impact on water quality, manufacturing
industry, and water transport.
Flood damages to the existing infrastructure
and property.
Loss of life, livelihood
Higher temperatures may mean that water is
too warm to cool “Kozloduy” nuclear power
plant, leading to power brownouts.
For general security
implication see Table 3.
For general security
implication see Table 3.
Increased the number of
Muslim migrants to the
region.
For general security
implication see Table 3.
Turmoil caused by insufficient
resources, food production,
and water insecurity.
As another major agricultural region all
impacts on the food production and agriculture
will have severe effects in the area.
Extreme snowfall
Extreme Temperature
highest changes
SANDANSKI
Major summer tourist destination. All
impacts on infrastructure, water and food
security will have severe impacts for the
region.
Landslides
Municipal sewer systems may overflow
during extreme rainfall events, gushing
untreated sewage into drinking water
supplies.
Damages to the existing infrastructure
Precipitation decrease:
30-40 percent
Damages to the existing infrastructure
Loss of life, livelihood
Stress on water resources and food production.
Direct and Indirect effect on biodiversity,
wildfires, pests and pathogens.
Reduced food production.
Direct negative effect on yields, product
quality, agricultural pests, diseases, and weeds,
and livestock.
Affect the amount of surface water and
irrigation.
For general
implication
For general
implication
security
see Table 3.
security
see Table 3.
For general security
implication see Table 3.
Key Findings from CPT Gerovski’s Research
“Given the primary mission and tasks of the Bulgarian Army, it is very likely for the Bulgarian Army to be involved in
border and humanitarian issues, when the primary internal security departments and agencies exceed their capacity in shaping and
supporting Bulgarian security environment. Furthermore, reshaping Bulgarian Army capability might be required in order to create
capable and competent balanced forces, with organization, equipment, and combat training allowing not only adequate
participation within the full spectrum of NATO operations, but also providing adequate support to the national and local authorities
while dealing with certain non-military threats and crisis response operations within the territory of the country.
Undeniably, the Bulgarian Government comprehensive approach to problem solving within projected complex, deteriorated
environment defined by natural disaster or climate induced threats would involve Bulgarian Army and its components, assets, and
capabilities in support of the population of Bulgaria. The Bulgarian Army participation would include indirect and direct
contribution to the national security environment together or separate from the internal security defense departments and agencies.
The indirect approach would involve advising, training and planning of disaster response missions, while the direct approach
would involve straight contribution and participation of the Bulgarian Army into missions of support to the national security. The
most adequate contribution of the Bulgarian Army to the national security environment while dealing with climate-related impacts
would involve timely, well-organized, and coordinated efforts while providing emergency logistics support, transportation,
humanitarian assistance, or certain short-term reconstruction and engineering projects.”
COP 21 - (Conference of Parties to
the UN Framework on CC of 1994)



196 countries participated
All delegates signed an agreement (12 pages) which has the goals to:

limit global warming to less than 2 degrees C.

0 net human GHG by 2100

Pursue 1.5 degree limit

Nationally determined contributions to GHG reductions!!!

Global stocktake (review every 5 years)

Adaptation and mitigations per AR5

Money for developing nations to build clean systems and loss and
damage (100 billion)
Must be signed by 55 nations that represent 55% of the current GHG
emissions.
Summary






Security is a much larger issue than wielding military power
Peace is not the absence of war, but the existence of stable
human communities who have their basic needs satisfied
Protecting peace means assuring regional stability
Environmental degradation is a major threat to peace and
stability in the world
Solutions must work toward curing the basic problems not
treating symptoms Climate Change




We are going to adapt to the consequences of GHG emissions
How we mitigate the impacts of future climate change will alter our future
security
Climate change is truly a world scale issue where win together or everyone
loses; however, the weakest nations suffer most.
Military forces must understand the problems and plan for them, just as
they do for other internal and external threats to National Security.
US Precipitation Patterns in the last 50 years
Precipitation has increased
an average of about 5
percent over the past 50
years. Projections of future
precipitation generally
indicate that northern areas
will become wetter, and
southern areas, particularly
in the West, will become
drier.
-40 %
+40 %
2080 – 2099 PREDICTIONS
Must consider when the precipitations falls
• Summer drier across the US
• Winter drier in the south
• Fall much drier in Midwest
• Spring drier in all but north
Observed Change in Annual Average
Precipitation
1958 to 2008
Environmental Security Analysis
2007 and 2011 FSI
FSI 2007
and 2011
RNI
%
Sudan (3)
2.9
6.0
F
F
Iraq (9)
3.1
5.5
D
Somalia (1)
2.5
6.3
Zimbabwe (6)
1.5
Chad (2)
Fertility
rate
Water
Data
Arable
land
Forest
Data
Crops
ES Risk
F
F
Extreme
D
F
D
High
F
F
F
F
Extreme
3.7
F
D
F-
F
High
3.1
6.6
F
F
F
F
Extreme
Ivory Coast
(10)
2.3
5.4
F
C
NA
F
High
Dem Rep of
the Congo (4)
3.2
7.2
F
C
C
F
High
Afghanistan
(7)
2.7
6.9
F
F
F-
F
Extreme
Guinea (11)
2.7
6.2
F
D
D
F
High
Central Africa
Republic (8)
2.7
5.4
F
C
C
F
High
Haiti (5)
2.5
5.7
F
F-
F-
F
Extreme
U.S.
0.6
2.0
A
B
B
A
Low
France
0.6
1.9
A
A
A
A
low
F= Awful
D= Bad
C= Average
B= Good
A= Excellent
Just the Facts: IPCC 2014



Atmosphere

0.85 o C from 1880 – 2012

Likely the warmest 30-yr period in 1400 years
Ocean

90% of the additional heat has gone into the oceans

0.4 degrees since 1971 –top 75 meters
Cryosphere

Rate of ice loss – a bunch per decade in Gt

Rate of ice loss from Greenland accelerated

Arctic sea ice loss 3.5 to 4.1 % per decade

Northern Hemisphere snow cover decreased 1.6 % per decade in March
and 11% in June (what does mean??)

Loss of permafrost
Just the Facts #2



Sea Level
 0.19 m 1901-2010
 Loss of ice + thermal expansion
 Sea level at the last global warming period was
5M
Carbon dioxide, CH4, and N2O exceeded 800,000 year
records
Extremely likely that ½ of the Temp was GHG driven