Transcript Climate Change Global Climate is Changing

Climate Change and Tourism
INTERNATIONAL TASKFORCE ON SUSTAINABLE TOURISM DEVELOPMENT
“MARRAKESH PROCESS”
3rd Meeting, Paris, 10-12 December 2007
Luigi Cabrini
Director
Sustainable Development of Tourism
World Tourism Organization
www.unwto.org
Content presentation
 Climate Change
 Climate Change and Tourism
 Adapting
 Tourism as a Cause
 Mitigation Measures
 The International Debate
Climate Change
Global Climate is Changing
‘The warming of the climate system is unequivocal’
(IPCC-WG1-AR4 2007)
+0.760C
Climate Change has Only Just Begun
◘ the pace of climate
change is ‘very
likely’ to increase
over the 21st
century
◘ the biological
response and sea
level rise would
continue for
centuries
Climate Change and
Tourism
Climate
Tsunami
Avian Flu
Poverty
Economy
Environment
Competition
Infrastructure
SARS
Security
Terrorism
Oil
Tourism in an era of Global Climate Change
◘ Impacts and Adaptations at Tourism Destinations
» Mountain regions
» Coastal regions and islands
» Natural and cultural heritage
◘ Implications for Tourism Demand
» Geographic and seasonal shifts
◘ Emissions from Tourism: Status and Projections
» Sub-sectors: transport, accommodations, activities
» Results for 2005 baseline and 2035 projection
◘ Mitigation Measures in Tourism
Assessment of Major Impact Types
at Tourism Destinations
◘
Direct climatic impacts
»
»
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◘
Indirect environmental change impacts
»
»
»
◘
Biodiversity Loss (terrestrial and marine)
Sea Level Rise
Disease
Impact of mitigation policy on tourist mobility
»
◘
Warmer Summers
Warmer Winters
Precipitation Changes (water supply)
Increased Extreme Events
Travel Costs and Destination Choice (less long haul? / less plane?)
Indirect societal change impacts
»
»
Global/Regional Economic Impacts
Increased Security Risks (social/governance disruption)
Tourism Vulnerability ‘Hotspots’
Regional
Knowledge Gaps
◘ Changes in climate resources for tourism:
» Alter geographic and seasonal distribution of demand
- proportionately more tourism spending in temperate nations
» No impact on demand at global scale
◘ Indirect environmental change:
» Impact demand at destination-regional level
» No impact on demand at global scale
◘ Indirect societal change:
» Impact demand at destination-regional level
» Reduce demand growth at global scale if economic growth adversely
affected (reduced discretionary income)
◘ Mitigation policy:
» Increased travel cost and environmental concern over tourism travel may
impact long-haul and air travel
» Market research is required to better estimate impact
◘ Tourist perceptions of destination impacts and of the environmental
consequences of travel will likely play a central role in travel decisionmaking
» Important influence by the media
◘ Accurate information on tourism and climate change is essential
» Speculation and misinformation on impacts exists
and is dangerous
Example: ‘The likelihood [is] that
Mediterranean summers may be too
hot for tourists after 2020’
-The Guardian, 28 July, 2006
» Improved science on impacts is in the best interest
of the tourism industry and decision-makers
Direct Climatic Impacts:
Key Regional Vulnerabilities
Warmer
Summers
Warmer
Winters
Extreme
Events
Water
Scarcity
Mediterranean
and Middle East
European
Alps
Caribbean
Mediterranean
and Middle East
Southern USA
and California
NortheastMidwest USA/
East Canada
USA Gulf of
Mexico Coast
Southwest USA
Caribbean
Australian
Alps
Polynesia/
Micronesia
Australia
South
Africa
Rocky
Mountains
East China
Sea Coast
North and SubSaharan Africa
North
Queensland
Pyrenees
Mountains
Northern
Australia
Small Island
Nations
Indirect Environmental Change Impacts:
Key Regional Vulnerabilities
Land
Biodiversity
Loss
Marine
Biodiversity
Loss
South Africa
Cape Region
Sea Level
Rise
Disease
Polynesia/
Micronesia
Maldives and
other Indian
Ocean Islands
Sub-Saharan and
Southern Africa
Mediterranean
Basin
Australia
Florida
Western Europe
Polynesia/
Micronesia
Caribbean and
South America
Polynesia/
Micronesia
South USA
Central AmericaCosta Rica
South China Sea
Gold Coast
Mediterranean
South America
Amazon Basin
Maldives
Islands
Coastal
China
Northern
Australia
Impacts of Mitigation Policies on Tourist Mobility:
Key Regional Vulnerabilities
Travel Cost Increase from
Mitigation Policy
Australia
New Zealand
Seychelles / Maldives
Sub-Saharan and South Africa
Polynesia/Micronesia
Indirect Societal Change Impacts :
Key Regional Vulnerabilities
Increased Security Risks
Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa
Southern Africa
Caribbean
Southeast Asia
Bangladesh-India-Pakistan
Adaptation…
Destination Level Adaptation
◘ All tourism businesses and destinations will need to adapt in order
to minimize risks and capitalize on an new opportunities in an
sustainable way
» it is no longer sufficient to rely on past experience
◘ Very limited knowledge of the capacity of current adaptations to
cope successfully with future climate change
» some evidence that tourism operators are over-estimating
adaptive capacity
Destination Level Adaptation
◘ Adaptive capacity in tourism sector is high, but varies substantially
between sub-sectors, destinations and businesses
» some tourism stakeholders-regions will require assistance to
adapt effectively to climate change
◘ ‘Mainstreaming’ of adaptation in the tourism sector remains years
away
» little evidence of anticipatory adaptation occurring
◘ The process of adaptation needs to start now
» information requirements for successful adaptation will increase
substantially over the next 25 years
» Infrastructure and market transitions will take decades in some
cases
Destination Level Adaptation
• Summer Tourism:
water-stressed areas to adapt
with alternative tourism
products/services – e.g. cultural
or rural tourism
• Winter Tourism:
Ski resorts that are “snow-dependent” to
adapt with snow-making machines
(however, not very sustainable) but to also
consider extending seasonal activities –
non-snow based – e.g. camping, mountain
biking, etc.
Tourism as a cause
Calculation of Emissions from the Tourism Sector
◘ ‘Global Tourism Emissions Model’ for 2005
» UNWTO prepared a specific estimate for the project
» Three sub-sectors: transport, accommodation, activities
» Includes international and domestic tourism
Global Tourism Emissions in 2005: CO2 Only
Sub-Sectors
CO2 (Mt)
Air transport *
522
40%
Car transport
418
32%
Other transport
39
3%
Accommodation
274
21%
Activities
52
4%
TOTAL
1,307
Total World
(IPCC 2007)
Tourism
Contribution
26,400
5%
Transportation
of Tourists = 75%
of Sector Emissions
* - does not include
non-CO2 emissions
and impact on climate
If Tourism was a Country
Rank
Country
Percentage of
total emissions (2005)
1
United States
22.2 %
2
China
18.4 %
-
European Union
11.4 %
3
Russia
5.6 %
-4
Global
India Tourism Sector
5.0%
4.9 %
5
Japan
4.6 %
6
Germany
3.0 %
7
Canada
2.3 %
8
United Kingdom
2.2 %
9
South Korea
1.7 %
10
Italy
1.7 %
Source: World Resource Institute
Global Tourism Emissions Compared with Other
Major Economic Sectors
Industrial
Processes
3%
Other Fuel
Combustion
10%
Transportation
17%
Global CO2 Emissions
by Sector (2000) *
Electricity and
Heat
33%
Tourism
Land Use
Change and
Forestry
24%
* World Resources Institute
Manufacturing
and
Construction
13%
(2005)
= 5%
‘Business as Usual’ Projection of
Future CO2 Emissions from Tourism*
3500
3000
Air Transport
Mt CO2
2500
52%
2000
Car Transport
Other Transport
1500
16%
1000
500
0
Activities
40%
32%
21%
Accommodation
25%
4%
2005
* Excluding same-day visitors
7%
2035
Mitigation measures
The Future is Now
Should climate be added to the equation of sustainable tourism,
along with the economic, social and environmental aspects
(Quadruple Bottom Line)?
In any case, it makes the sustainability agenda more compelling.
• Climate change must be considered the greatest challenge to
sustainable development and tourism in the 21st century.
• Tourism can play a significant role in addressing climate change. It
must show leadership as an agent of change for both adaptation and
mitigation – the time for action is now.
Mitigation options
◘
◘
◘
◘
Reducing energy use / Conservation:
» changing transport behaviour (e.g. shift to rail and coach
instead of car and aircraft, choosing closer destinations),
changing management practices (e.g. videoconferencing for
business tourism)
Improving energy efficiency:
» use technology to carrying out the same operation with a lower
energy input
Use of renewable or carbon-neutral energy:
» substitute fossil fuels with energy sources that are not finite and
cause lower emissions, such as biomass, hydro, wind, and
solar energy
Sequestering CO2 through carbon sinks:
» CO2 can be stored in biomass (e.g. through afforestation), in
aquifers and in geological sinks (e.g. depleted gas fields)
The International Debate
UNWTO initiatives in climate change and tourism
• First International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism
(April 2003, Djerba, Tunisia)
Djerba Declaration on Climate Change and Tourism
•Reduction of greenhouse gases from the tourist sector
•Management of impact of climate change at tourist destinations
• GEF pilot project on climate change
adaptation in tourism at SIDS
(Fiji, Maldives…)
• WMO Expert Group on Tourism
and Climate
2007
2003
Djerba
Davos
London
Cartagena
Bali
2015
MDG
Davos Declaration

Climate is a key tourism resource but tourism is also a
contributor to climate change (5%)

Tourism is a vital economic factor and contributor to the
MGD

Adopt urgent policies to encourage sustainable
development: economic, social, environmental and climate
change responsiveness

How to do it?

Mitigate emissions (transport and accommodation)

Adapt businesses and destinations to changing climate
conditions

New technology

Help poorer regions adapting
Davos Declaration – Call for action

Government and international organizations
−
Incorporate tourism in existing commitments under the UN
−
Implement concrete actions for adaptation, mitigation,
technology and financing consistent with the MDG
−
Provide training and technical support to destinations and
operators in developing countries
−
Promote partnerships and information exchange
−
Collaborate in international strategies to reduce emissions in
transport (ICAO & other), accommodation and other activities
−
Develop regional and local climate information services tailored
to the sector (WMO)
−
Implement policies, regulations, educational programs,
research and monitoring measures for effective adaptation and
mitigation
Davos Declaration – Call for action

Industry and destinations
−
Implement mitigation measure throughout the tourism value
chain. Establish targets, indicators and measure
−
Promote investment in energy efficiency programs and the use
of renewable energy to reduce the carbon footprint
−
Integrate tourism in local adaptation and mitigation policies
−
Strive to conserve biodiversity, ecosystems and landscapes in
order to strength their resilience to climate change
−
Implement climate focused product diversification, reposition
destinations and foster all season supply and demand
−
Raise staff and consumers awareness on the impacts and
engage then in the response
Davos Declaration – Call for action


Consumer
−
Encourage them to consider climate, economic, social and
environmental impact in heir choice of travel and destination:
reduce footprint if not directly by offsetting
−
Incentive environmental friendly activities in the destinations
Research and Communication
−
Encourage multidisciplinary research on the impacts, develop
risk assessment tools and cost-benefit analysis of responses
−
Include environmental and climate subjects in tourism
education
−
Promote sustainable travel
−
Raise awareness of tourism potential as a development tool
London and Cartagena Conclusions

Identification of consensus measures to address climate
change without losing sight of other priorities, such as the
MDGs

No discrimination against developing countries, especially longhaul destinations, by creating obstacles to their economic
development

Special consideration should be given to Least Developing
Countries and Small Island Developing States by providing
financial, technical and training support

Policy responses should be balanced and comprehensive and
focus on measures which are economically efficient

Tourism industry must play a strong role as a part of a broader
response to climate change, but it should not be disadvantaged
through the imposition of a disproportionate burden
Thank you!
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
www.unwto.org