Transcript Greenhouse2009

News
• http://www.thefarmproduction.blogspot.com/
• http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33357735/ns/us_newsenvironment/
• http://www.comcast.net/articles/newsscience/20091016/AA.Antarctica.Global.Warming/
• http://www.boston.com/news/science/articles/2009/10/20/
more_planets_discovered_outside_solar_system/
• http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2009/10/2
0/carbon_cutting_projects_face_uncertainty_after_2012/
• http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/edit
orials/articles/2009/10/20/to_foster_green_energy_state_ne
eds_to_make_bets/
Remaining Issues with Midterm 1
Support for Learning
• Midterm II-Handed out Thursday, Nov. 12
• Participation-30%
• Extra Credit Paper (up to 2/3 of letter grade)
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5-10 pages
Subject of your choice
5-10 references (at least 3 not on the internet)
Discuss with Jason or Bob (email OK)
• Contact Jason or Bob
• BlackBoard
– Powerpoints
– Lecture Notes
– Study Lists
• Reading
– Notebooks, notes
The Greenhouse Effect
Image courtesy of scrappy annie, Flickr.com
Greenhouse Effect
Image courtesy of National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior
Energy Budget
Image courtesy of Robert A. Rohde, Wikipedia
Model
• http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/
ClimateChange
Greenhouse Effect
• Natural Greenhouse Effect
– Raises earth’s average temperature 18C to 14C
• Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect Enhancement
– Due to additions of greenhouse gases
– CO2, CH4, N20, O3, Freons
• CO2 and Temperature correlated over last 2
million years
• CO2 has never been as high as it is today
• Model predictions need historical data as well as a
complete understanding of feedback systems and
thresholds
Carbon Dioxide
Other Greenhouse
Gases
Image courtesy of www.epa.gov
Radiation is
related to
Temperature
Images removed due to copyright restrictions.
Different gases
Absorb
different
wavelengths
“Global
Average
Temperature”
Images removed due to copyright restrictions.
How do you measure “Global
Average Temperature”?
6000 Temperature Stations
Image courtesy of Robert A. Rohde, Wikipedia
Ice Cores
Image courtesy of Kevin_McMahon, www.arcus.org/
Feedbacks--Albedo
Images removed due to copyright restrictions.
Polar Ice Caps
Image courtesy of NASA
Glacial/Interglacial
Images removed due to copyright restrictions.
Other Feedback Systems
• Increased CO2increased Tice caps
meltingdecreased albedoincreased T (POSITIVE
feedback)
• Increased CO2increased photosynthesisdecreased
CO2 (NEGATIVE feedback)
• Increased Tincreased evaporationincreased
cloudsincreased albedodecreased T (NEGATIVE
feedback)
• Increased CO2Increased Tincreased climate
changedisruption of ecosytemsdecreased
productivityincreased CO2 (POSITIVE feedback)
Thresholds
• Ocean Conveyor Belt stops
– Temperatures rise, arctic ice melts, North Atlantic Deep Water not
salty enough to sink
• Terrestrial carbon sink fills up
– Forest regrowth complete
– ~1 gigaton C/yr atmospheric increase above current
• El Nino intensifies
– Temperatures rise, cause greater gradients in pressure, disrupts
upwelling and therefore productivity
• Hurricanes intensify
– Water temperatures increase
– Allow many more hurricanes to develop
– Disrupts ecosystems
What can we learn from
Past climate change?
Images removed due to copyright restrictions.
Global Temperatures-Ice Ages
Milankovitch Cycles
Image courtesy of Robert A. Rohde, Wikipedia
Carbon Dioxide
Image courtesy of Robert A. Rohde, Wikipedia
Current Interglacial
Image courtesy of Robert A. Rohde, Wikipedia
Image courtesy of Robert A. Rohde, Wikipedia
Sun Spots
Image courtesy of Robert A. Rohde, Wikipedia
Source: The Low Carbon Partnership
Model Projections
Image courtesy of Robert A. Rohde, Wikipedia
Temperature Changes So Far
Image courtesy of Robert A. Rohde, Wikipedia
Uneven: 0-8C
Image courtesy of Robert A. Rohde, Wikipedia
Argentina
Portage Lake/Glacier
Images removed due to copyright restrictions.
Upsala Glacier
You can observe a lot
by watching…
Greenland Ice Sheet
Permafrost
Image courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory
Source: The Green Lane
Coral
Bleaching
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
How will a 3C temperature
increase affect your life?
Images removed due to copyright restrictions.
Global Conveyor Belt
Image courtesy of Avsa
Image courtesy of World Resources Institute
Effect on Species
Images removed due to copyright restrictions.
Effects of Climate Change
Agriculture
• Shifts in food growing areas
• Changes in crop yields
• Increased pests crop diseases, and
weeds in warmer areas
Biodiversity
• Extinction of some plant and animal
species
• Loss of Habitats
• Disruption of aquatic life
Weather Extremes
• Prolonged heat waves and droughts
• Increased flooding from more
frequent, intense, and heavy rainfall
in some areas
Water Resources
• Changes in water supply
• Decreased water quality
• Increased drought
• Increased flooding
• Snowpack reduction
• Melting of mountaintop glaciers
Forests
• Changes in forest composition and
locations
• Disappearance of some forests especially
ones at high elevations
• Increased fires from drying
• Loss of wildlife habitat and species
Human Population
• Increased deaths from heat and
disruption of food supplies
• More environmental
• Increased migration
Human Health
• Decreased deaths from cold weather
• Increased deaths from heat and disease
• Disruption of food and water supplies
• Spread of tropical diseases to temperate
areas
• Increased respiratory disease and pollen
allergies
• Increased water pollution from coastal
flooding
• Increased formation of photochemical
smog
Sea Level and coastal Areas
• Rising sea levels
• Flooding of low-lying islands and coastal
cities
• Flooding of coastal estuaries, wetlands, and
coral reefs
• Beach erosion
• Disruption of coastal fisheries
• Contamination of coastal aquifers with salt
water
Images removed due to copyright restrictions.
Methods to slow Possible Global Warming
Prevention
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•
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Cut fossil fuel use
(especially coal) in half
Improve energy efficiency
Shift to renewable Energy
Reduce deforestation
Use sustainable agriculture
Slow population growth
Cleanup
•
Remove Co2 from
smoke stack and vehicle
emissions
•
Plant and tend trees
Images removed due to copyright restrictions.
CO2 Sequestration
Image courtesy of U.S. Department of Energy under public domain
Carbon Sequestration
Images removed due to copyright restrictions.
CO2 Burial: Saline Reservoirs
130 Gt total U.S. sequestration potential
Global emissions 6 Gt/yr in 2002 Test sequestration projects 2002-2004
Study Areas
• Near sources
(power plants,
refineries, coal
fields)
• Distribute only
H2 or electricity
• Must not leak
•At 2 Gt/yr
sequestration
rate, surface of
U.S. would rise
10 cm by 2100
One Formation
Studied
Two Formations
Studied
Power Plants (dot size proportional
to 1996 carbon emissions)
DOE Vision & Goal:
1 Gt storage by 2025, 4 Gt by 2050
Projected Carbon-Free Primary Power
2005 usage:
14 TW